1. In less than a month, the ballot boxes have brought Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, and Trump down to earth. The far right was having it very easy until democracy put them in their place. Bolsonaro didn't take long to catch a plane and go into exile in Florida before they could arrest him in Brazil. Paradoxically, Trump says that if he goes to Israel and runs in the elections, he would win by a landslide. Should we encourage him to try it?

The Brazilian far-right is looking for a formula that has so far proven unsuccessful for everyone who has tried to put it into practice: keeping Bolsonarism alive without any member of the Bolsonaro family exercising leadership. The flight of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to the United States, forty-eight hours after losing the presidential election to Lula da Silva, and the subsequent coup-mongering statement – a botch that had three successive versions, in which it went from self-proclaiming as "president-elect" to presenting himself as "leader of Brazil" – have generated widespread criticism in extremist circles, where a feeling of abandonment, betrayal, and frustration prevails.

Likud, led by Benjamin Bibi Netanyahu, was the most voted party in Tuesday's Israeli elections, but it nevertheless received a significant electoral punishment and was left very far from being able to form a government, even by adding the ultra-Orthodox, Zionist, and far-right partners that have supported it in recent years. Together, they would total fifty seats, when the majority in the Knesset is sixty-one (in the previous legislature, Netanyahu and his partners had sixty-three). There is a consensus among analysts that Netanyahu has paid at the polls for the radicalism of his last term, which many attribute precisely to the extreme positions of his partners. Two ministers, in particular, the fanatical head of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, from the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, and the cynical head of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, from the Religious Zionist Party, also far-right and ultra-nationalist, have personified anti-Palestinian radicalism and are the direct reason for the strong mobilization shown in these elections by Arab Israeli voters, who have gone to the polls in mass. If an electoral repeat is not forced, the Arab parties will be key in the formation of a new executive led by Gadi Eisenkot and his party Yashar (which defines itself as center-right, although this is a quite elastic label) and which could include secular right-wing forces such as Israel Beitenu, or center-left ones like The Democrats. Whatever happens, however, Netanyahu may lose the immunity that has given him impunity, and have to account for pending corruption charges before the Israeli justice system. Or be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, for the genocide in Gaza.

The secret and somewhat Hollywood-style escape of Flávio Bolsonaro, with stopovers in Argentina and Ecuador and the explicit help of the Argentine president, Javier Milei, and the Trump administration, culminated this Wednesday with the arrival of the loser of the Brazilian elections at the Miami-Opa Locka executive airport (United States), from where he said that he does not recognize the results. In a statement on social media, Bolsonaro declared himself "the true president-elect of Brazil", two days after his defeat at the polls, but shortly after he deleted the message and published a new statement in which he proclaims himself "leader of Brazil". In the text, he also thanks the Argentine president, Javier Milei, for his "courage" and "sense of justice", and the US president, Donald Trump, for the reception.

Far-right leader Flávio Bolsonaro is flying to the United States, after fleeing Brazil amidst his electoral defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. According to various Brazilian media outlets and the Reuters agency, Bolsonaro entered Argentina this Tuesday night (at 3 a.m.), accompanied by his wife and two daughters, via the Tancredo Neves International Bridge, which crosses the Iguaçu River and connects Brazil with Argentina. From there, he took a private flight on the Baires Fly company heading to Guayaquil, Ecuador, and at 11 a.m., he took off heading to Miami.

Beyond the internal effects for Brazil, Lula da Silva's unexpected victory in this Sunday's presidential elections has a major global impact, as it represents the first defeat of the reactionary wave driven by Trumpism in South America. Indeed, for Washington, Brazil was the big game piece on the continent after having achieved victories in Argentina with Javier Milei, in Chile with José Antonio Kast, in Colombia with Abelardo de la Espriella, and in Peru with Keiko Fujimori. The veteran Brazilian leader has achieved not only a historic comeback (never had a candidate who lost in the first round won before), but has broken a trend that seemed unstoppable.

The family plan of former President Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned for an attempted coup d'état, was for his entire clan to live parasitically off politics. His eldest son, Flávio, 45 years old and until now a senator, was the one who paved the way for his other three brothers. He, however, is the one who has gone the furthest by running for the presidency of Brazil. Although he stopped at the gates. For the moment, Bolsonaro has not accepted the defeat and has requested the annulment of the elections.

Nearly 159 million Brazilians with the right to vote will decide this Sunday who will occupy the Palácio do Planalto for the next four years and, implicitly, the future of the New Republic as it was conceived in the 1988 Constitution. President Lula da Silva, 80 years old, of the Workers' Party (PT), with a political career spanning five decades, faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 years old, of the Liberal Party (PL), the firstborn of the former president imprisoned for an attempted coup d'état. The situation is completely unprecedented: the uncertainty is total.

The social sectors that left poverty behind thanks to the inclusive policies of Lula da Silva's first term in the presidency (2003-2010), now turned into the new Brazilian middle class, hold the key to Sunday's presidential runoff election. This segment, which represents 51% of the electorate, mostly supports the far-right candidate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who already prevailed in the first round with 47.03% of the votes, ahead of Lula's 45.16%.

Daniella Marques, economic coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign and well-positioned to be the next Minister of Finance in a hypothetical far-right government, has been promising the financial market for weeks, in the event of a victory, the implementation of an ultraliberal reform agenda inspired by that of the Argentine president, Javier Milei.

Donald Trump's government has entered fully into the Brazilian presidential race, which will hold its first round on Sunday, October 4th. The explicit support for the far-right candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, has transformed into an electoral interference operation that has forced Lula da Silva, who is running for re-election, and his executive branch to take measures to protect themselves.

Brazilian politics remains entrenched and polarized around the figures of Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, the last two presidents, who personify the two mass ideological movements with the greatest capacity for mobilization this century: democratic labor populism of social inclusion versus the far-right subservient to the interests of the United States.Four years later, there is a second face-to-face at the polls between Lula, who at 80 is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, and Bolsonaro, this time embodied by his eldest son, Senator Flávio, given that his father is disqualified and serving a 27-year and three-month home detention sentence for the coup attempt. It is an unequal confrontation, due to the curriculum and trajectory of the two contenders, in which the current president emerges as the favorite in the polls (41% of preferences in the first round compared to 36% for the oppositionist), but with all scenarios open.The electoral campaign for the October presidential elections – the first round will be on Sunday the 4th and, if necessary, the second will be on the 25th – has started with a low tone, with the protagonists saving their strength, aware that everything will be decided in the second half of September.Everything stays at home

The far-right's preferred candidate for these elections was the current governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, who had the support of landowners, big business, Faria Lima – the São Paulo avenue that names the country's main financial center –, all the centrist "hinge" parties of the Centrão, which in recent years have largely embraced radicalism, the great neopentecostal evangelical churches, and the main media groups that gave him a veneer of "moderation", ignoring the extermination policy that the São Paulo military police, under his mandate, has carried out in the favelas.Tarcísio de Freitas represented a new phase: Bolsonarism without Bolsonaro, a more presentable, modern, and chameleon-like ultraconservatism, stripped of the rudeness and outbursts of the former president. It was even speculated that the former first lady, Michelle Bolsonaro, would form a tandem with the São Paulo governor as a candidate for vice president. This move, however, generated a war of vanities, jealousies, and ambitions within the clan. The four sons, all of them with elected positions, united against their stepmother upon realizing they were losing control of their father's political capital.