Since the airport association ACI Europe launched an alert about the fuel shortage if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged —it has been practically closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran—, all eyes have been on the supply of kerosene, the fuel used by aviation. While Europe's exposure to oil and gas from the Persian Gulf is lower compared to other countries, particularly Asian ones, kerosene from this region, which passes through the Strait of Hormuz, accounts for 45% of the total consumed on the Old Continent.

Past 10 AM in Washington (4 PM Catalan time), the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz decreed by Donald Trump is supposed to have come into effect. With no significant changes in the first few minutes, the region and the markets are holding their breath in anticipation of a new escalation of the war. The US president ordered the naval blockade on Sunday, after negotiations in Islamabad stalled and as a measure of pressure against Iran. The action affects all ships heading to or departing from Iranian ports. For their part, the ayatollahs have already warned that no port in the Persian Gulf will be safe if an attempt is made to stop their ships.

Good news arrived tonight from Hungary:Viktor Orbán has lost the elections. He has lost them clearly, because the opposition leader has won them with a resounding two-thirds absolute majority with the highest turnout in Hungary's recent democratic history; never before had so many people gone to vote since 1989 when the communist regime fell, meaning there was a desire to vote and a desire for change.The profile of the winner, Péter Magyar, is apparently contradictory: he worked for Orbán's government, but has been increasingly distancing himself until stating tonight that "the people of Hungary have said yes to Europe". And in Brussels there is euphoria, because although Hungary is a relatively small country (9 and a half million inhabitants), Orbán's Hungary was a kind of black sheep in the European Union for a double and powerful reason: it was the candidate of Putin and Trump. It has always opposed European sanctions on Russia, and as for Trump, Orbán was one of the European references for the American president, to the point that last week Vice President Vance went to Hungary to support Orbán in an electoral rally. That Trump's candidates lose in Europe, that going hand in hand with Trump detracts rather than adds, is a sign that people do not want wars like those in Iran that are making us more expensive and complicating our lives, as we explain on this page: the rising cost of fertilizers threatens the cost of food, and it turns out that the Persian Gulf countries are among the main producers.the rising cost of fertilizers threatens the cost of food, and it turns out that the Persian Gulf countries are among the main producers.By the way, the first round of peace talks with Iran ended in disagreement (as expected) and tonight Trump said he will block the Strait of Hormuz (which will prevent Iran from charging tolls to pass through it), which in essence is an acknowledgment that he cannot open it. And since he does everything in bulk, this morning he attacked Pope Leo XIV in one of those on-the-fly responses, saying that the Pope is

Donald Trump's roller coaster doctrine has permeated the Third Gulf War from the outset. This weekend we have seen another sharp, precipitous turn: from moderate optimism for the start of talks between Americans and Iranians in Islamabad, after Tuesday's in extremis agreement that halted "hell" over the Middle East; to worrying pessimism due to the lack of agreement in Pakistani meeting rooms and the return to more visceral threats between Washington and Tehran, which hint at bombing the strategic Hormuz, the epicenter of this war, again. hint at bombing the strategic Hormuz, the epicenter of this war. The central command of the United States army has announced that the blockade will begin this afternoon, specifically at 4 p.m., Catalan time.

One of the key points of the fragile ceasefire established between the United States and Iran on Wednesday is the free movement of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A key passage for tankers, fertilizers, and dry goods, the strangulation generated as a result of the war threatens the entire world economy. The volume of ship passage has fallen from between 150 and 200 daily on February 27 to less than ten in the last forty-eight hours.

The head of International for ARA and special envoy to Dubai, Francesc Millan, answers subscribers' questions about the war in the Middle East in a live conversation with deputy director Carla Turró.

Today is one of those days when you don't even have time to get your bearings. We are waiting for Iran, because Trump seems determined not to give any more ultimatums. Yesterday he said: "We can destroy Iran in one night, and that night could be tomorrow," meaning, this coming dawn. This time it could be for real, because these extended ultimatums are starting to be a joke and because the crude language Trump has used these days shows more desperation than ability to intimidate the ayatollahs' regime, and that makes it even more dangerous. If his threat is fulfilled, the consequences could be catastrophic, almost unimaginable, beyond the deaths, the war crimes he will commit, and the world economy also going up in smoke.To understand how erratic and neronian Trump is, we only need to think that he has the world admiring the NASA trip to the Moon: human beings had never been so far from Earth, and this is extraordinary news and of national and almost worldwide unity, but Trump himself has counter-programmed himself with a war whose meaning he does not know and from which he does not know how to get out. He only knows how to boast about the rescue of the shot-down pilot (a meritorious operation, yes, because if the Iranians had taken a prisoner the political cost for Trump would have been very high), but when you look at it, Iran already has a great hostage, which is the Strait of Hormuz, on which we all depend.Speaking of Hormuz, we highly recommend the reports that our Head of International, Francesc Millan, is currently filing from the Middle East. Yesterday we read about him sailing through the Strait, and today we find him in the ultra-modern and very exposed Dubai.Not everything is misfortune: unemployment has fallen in Catalonia and the number of people who have jobs and are affiliated with Social Security is nearing records. It is good news, which unfortunately does not prevent people from working and not escaping poverty.And yesterday an old acquaintance, Jorge Fernández Díaz, went to trial accused of having participated in the theft of information from Luis Bárcenas that compromised the PP. The Kitchen plot allegedly paid bribes to Bárcenas' driver with money from reserved police funds. On the defendants' bench are one who was a minister, one who was a secretary of state, five commissioners, two inspectors, and two police officers. Rot to the bone of the State, a type of rot we know well, because some of these, starting with Fernández Díaz, appear in all the photos of the patriotic police.And today begins the Koldo case, which affects the PSOE: purchase of masks, contracts, cronyism and favors. Do these two trials have anything in common? Yes, that Fernández Díaz was of Rajoy's utmost trust and Ábalos was of Pedro Sánchez's utmost trust.And we end with a page that makes us think that the nightmare will continue in Rodalies. It is this one signed by Natàlia Vila. As you know, the service is provided with trains from 1990, and now the new ones were supposed to arrive. First they were supposed to arrive last year, then at the beginning of the year, and now they say "in the autumn", and most will be for Rodalies and few will come to Regionals, and they will be delivered over the next 4 years, until 2030. On top of that, some new trains that are already in the testing phase are already covered in graffiti. No further questions, your honor.Good morning.

Iran's regime is defending itself from the joint attack by the United States and Israel with a weapon that is not military, but economic: choking the transit of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's gas and oil transit passed. But it is a selective closure: instead of mining the strait to block the passage of all ships, Tehran allows the passage of its own vessels and those it considers "non-hostile," while blocking those from countries it considers "enemies." It has established a selective toll with a physical corridor in the sea, through which it forces ships it is interested in to pass. Those that do not do so risk being attacked with drones, missiles, or speedboats.

Without insurance, there are no ships to sail. That is why, at number 1 Lime Street, in the heart of the City of London, Donald Trump's words have a relative impact. He can say one thing or the opposite. Either that the war will end in "the next two or three weeks", after sending Iran "to the Stone Age, where it belongs." Or that the navy's aircraft carriers will protect the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Or even more: that it will be the Western allies who will have to do it, either by warlike or diplomatic means, such as those discussed on Thursday by the thirty-five countries that, with the United Kingdom as host, met virtually to analyze the alternatives to the blockade of oil flow in the Persian Gulf.

The war against Iran is impacting the global fertilizer trade: its scarcity will drive up prices and lead to less abundant harvests. Most fertilizers are produced in the Middle East and also transit through the Strait of Hormuz, just like oil and gas. In fact, one-third of the world's fertilizer trade passes through this strait, and its main destination is Southeast Asia. Asia already fears not having enough food due to the conflict.

Long before the coordinated bombings on Iran by Israel and the United States, the Tehran regime had been warning for weeks that any attack would trigger a war escalation of the utmost consequences. A month later, the confrontation is already being played out on the battlefield of the economy and threatens to cause a new global recession.

On the war: the United States and Israel have neither overthrown the ayatollahs' regime, nor do they control the Strait of Hormuz, nor is Trump advancing peace talks as he wants us to believe with this daily obsession of talking, talking, and talking.Trump wants to claim victory and cannot, he wants to announce peace and bombs and missiles continue to be heard, and Tehran says they are not negotiating anything, the war is harming the lives of people and businesses all over the world, and it is sending us into an energy crisis that could strangle us all. The dictatorship of the Iranian clergy has understood that Trump is in a hurry to finish, and logically they are not; the regime is already very damaged, and now they want the whole world to blame Trump for the general impoverishment.In this regard, I recommend again theanalysis by our Head of International, Francesc Millán, on what might happen now. Because Trump said the war would last 4 weeks. It will be 4 weeks the day after tomorrow, Saturday. What should we do: insist on the diplomatic path or escalate the war, with nuclear weapons if necessary?In this scenario, today the anti-crisis decree is being voted on in Congress. It will be approved because Junts has already said they will support it because the PSOE will support what we explained yesterday about the zero VAT reduction for self-employed workers earning less than 85,000 euros per year. The vote and debate will be today, but yesterday Esquerra and Junts already debated another issue that will be voted on in a month, which is the decree extending rental contracts. And Rufián went all out against Junts: "Who do they work for? For whom? If they overthrow this decree, I wish them years of political ostracism. And I promise you that while I am here, I will strive very hard for that to be the case. Very. Because they do terrible harm to people, to this country, and to my country. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes..."

The war in Iran threatens to cause an economic meltdown even worse than that resulting from the 1973 oil crisis. This was the warning issued Monday by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Almost a month after the first US and Israeli attacks on Iran, we review the key events of a war that has already put the global economy on alert and could have significant geopolitical consequences.

The week begins in a very dangerous way. As you know, Trump has announced attacks on Iranian power plants if Iran does not unblock the Strait of Hormuz Iran has warned that its response will be to attack the desalination plants of the Persian Gulf countries. You attack my electricity, and I'll attack your water.

Two weeks later the start of Operation Epic Fury against IranMany questions remain unanswered, but one thing is clear: President Donald Trump has not gotten the war he wanted. His statements in recent days, which have suggested that he had won the warThese measures are intended to calm financial markets and prepare public opinion for a withdrawal. However, it will not be easy. "We will be the ones to determine when the war ends," they retorted defiantly to the Revolutionary Guard, the regime's praetorian guard, a clear indication that the ayatollahs' regime does not feel defeated.

The war in the Middle East has rapidly driven up oil and natural gas prices, with one clear strategic geographic point becoming Iran's primary weapon: the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime passage carries approximately a quarter to a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas. Its closure by Iran, aside from disrupting global energy markets, directly impacts the region's economies, as they cannot sell the oil and gas they extract and, in some cases, have had to shut down their refineries and liquefaction plants. Furthermore, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens shortages of crude oil, gas, and petroleum products in many countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which are the largest buyers of products from producers on the Arabian Peninsula, as illustrated in the infographic.

We're ending the week with gasoline prices climbing and the war escalating. To give you an idea, the US Treasury Department has announced it will temporarily authorize countries to buy Russian oil from tankers in transit.Iran's new supreme leader, son of the previous one, says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed While Netanyahu remains silent and bombs, Trump speaks to continue occupying the center of the stage alone and says things like the increase in fuel prices is bringing many benefits to American companies.

I suppose it's clear by now that when we talk about the Iran war, we're talking about a conflict that, apart from the deaths and displacements that, for the moment, don't affect us, has economic consequences that do affect us, especially because the price of oil has skyrocketed and threatens to rise even further.

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran have created a new landscape of uncertainty for global energy markets. In retaliation for the bombings, the Middle Eastern country has begun maneuvers to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic international waterway that could trigger a major global economic earthquake. According to Reuters, ships in the Persian Gulf are receiving high-frequency radio transmissions from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warning that they will not be allowed to pass through the strait. For now, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO), traffic remains open. The organization, which monitors commercial activity at sea, points out that radio frequency messages "are not legally binding and do not constitute any navigational restriction under international law." Countries in conflict can unilaterally declare maritime exclusion zones to reduce risks, but this mechanism "is not intended to impede the navigation of goods or neutrality, and ships are still free to navigate in international waters," it clarifies.