Trump considers the most dangerous decision
Trump, a self-confessed believer, may find solace in a biblical mantra: The ways of war are inscrutable. The warning should sound familiar. The Pentagon generals had cautioned him about the high risk of quagmire that an operation against Tehran entailed. Four weeks of bombing later, the mudslinging is undeniable, the war has never gone as the president envisioned, and Washington finds itself in a precarious position, on the verge of geostrategic failure.
The Iranian regime has seized two advantages that, in the arithmetic of war, are worth their weight in gold: time and the narrative. It is the United States, not Iran, that is in a hurry to end the war, pressured by a virulent energy crisis that threatens to cripple economies worldwide. Tehran's strategy has not changed since day one.To prolong and spread the conflict as much as possible in order to multiply its impacts. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been the geostrategic philosopher's stone for the ayatollahs. The Iranian army reiterated yesterday that only its "will"—and no one else's—will bring down the price of oil. Tehran is enraged.
With time running out, The White House narrative has entered desperation modeTrump doesn't know how to declare victory over the ayatollahs. None of Washington's—or Tel Aviv's—major objectives have been achieved: the Iranian regime remains structured, resisting, and perhaps even strengthened in the streets by the effect of foreign missiles; the daily bombings against Israel and US Gulf allies show that Tehran's military muscle is still robust; and the United States has been left alone and futile in its attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The list of blunders for the Republican could go on.
If The offensive against Iran already contradicted some fundamental tenets of Trumpism. -he'America first And the clamor for the Nobel Peace Prize—at this point, the diagnosis is bleak: anything that cannot be sold as an explicit victory for Trump will be interpreted as a defeat. "Don't call your defeat an agreement," a spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard rebuked him. Tehran, it must be emphasized, is enraged.
We are thus entering decisive hours of this war. The calendar is capricious. This weekend will see the expiration of two ultimatums: the one Trump imposed on himself, announcing, at the very beginning, that The Tehran operation would last four weeksAnd what it has imposed on the Iranian diet to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will not reopen Hormuz, and the war does not appear likely to end on Saturday.
The question is inevitable and also inscrutable: what will Washington do?
In recent days, the White House has flirted with two contradictory bets. The consequences of each option are so different that they would lead us to directly opposite realities. Herein lies the black magic of Trumpism.
First bet: diplomacy. As a result of the pressure, the Americans seem to be activating the negotiating route. The 15-point peace plan that Trump has sent to Tehran Through Pakistan—another country at war, incidentally—it could be a starting point for talks. The Iranians immediately rejected it, arguing that it is full of untenable demands, but the American press exuded optimism last night. CNN leaked that Washington wants to meet with Iranian representatives this weekend. Trump said on Tuesday that Iran is eager to finalize a deal. Washington will try to sell any agreement as a success. Iran accuses the president of being a compulsive liar and demands that the agreement be tailored to its requirements. Tel Aviv says the talks are doomed to failure. This is not an objective assessment. Netanyahu is the one most interested in the bombs continuing.
The second strategy is escalation. As a result of the quagmire, the Americans are threatening to intensify the war. Washington has increased the deployment of more troops to the Middle East, invoked the nuclear threat, and disseminated inflammatory pronouncements. "President Trump is not backing down and is prepared to unleash hell," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt yesterday, who is also known for her fiery rhetoric. At this point, strategies 1 and 2 converge. The Iranians believe that Trump's diplomatic outreach is a trap and that The United States is preparing for a more forceful war effort.The Iranians have reason to distrust Trump: the Republican is a specialist in starting to bomb them while negotiating.
The final decision rests on the table for a president wounded in his pride, quite cornered, and who hates to lose. Neither option is a winning one for Trump. The Republican's policy depends on the strength that victory would give him. If he ultimately fails to achieve victory in Iran, he will leave however he can. He will dangerously search for him elsewhere, be it Cuba or Ukraine.The inscrutable ways of war are often dangerous.
