Trump considers the most dangerous decision
Trump, a confessed believer, might find solace in a biblical mantra: the ways of war are inscrutable. The slogan should sound familiar. Pentagon generals had warned him of the high risk of getting bogged down in an operation against Tehran. Four weeks of bombs later, the mud is undeniable, the war has never gone as the president imagined, and Washington finds itself in a very complicated position, on the brink of geopolitical failure.
The Iranian regime has conquered two factors that, in wartime arithmetic, are gold: time and narrative. It is the United States, not Iran, that is in a hurry to end the war, pressured by a virulent energy crisis that threatens to suffocate economies worldwide. Tehran's strategy has not wavered since day one: to prolong and spread the conflict as much as possible to multiply its impacts. The closure of Hormuz has been the geopolitical philosopher's stone of the ayatollahs. The Iranian army recalled yesterday that only its "will" – and no one else's – will make the price of oil fall. Tehran is enraged.
With time running out, the White House narrative has entered desperation mode. Trump doesn't know how to claim victory over the ayatollahs. None of Washington's – or Tel Aviv's – major objectives have been met: the Iranian regime remains structured, resisting, and who knows if strengthened on the street by the effect of foreign missiles; daily bombings against Israel and the Gulf's Yankee allies show that Tehran's military muscle is still robust; and the United States has been left alone and sterile in its attempt to reopen Hormuz. The list of blunders for the Republican could be longer.
If the offensive against Iran already contradicted some fundamentals of Trumpism –'America first and the calls for the Nobel Peace Prize'–, at this point, the diagnosis is bleak: anything that cannot be sold as an explicit victory for Trump will be read as a defeat. "Don't call your defeat a deal," an Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman reproached him. Tehran, it must be insisted, is enraged.
We are, therefore, entering decisive hours of this war. The calendar is capricious. On the weekend, two ultimatums will be met: the one Trump gave himself, announcing at the beginning of everything that the Tehran operation would last four weeks, and the one he imposed on the Iranian diet to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will not reopen Hormuz and the war does not seem to be ending on Saturday.
The question is inevitable and also inscrutable: what will Washington do?
In recent days, the White House has flirted with two contradictory bets. The consequences of each option are so different that they would lead us to directly opposite realities. Here lies the black magic of trumpism.
First bet, diplomacy. As a result of the pressure, the Americans seem to be activating the negotiating path. The 15-point peace plan that Trump has sent to Tehran through Pakistan – another country at war, by the way – could be a start to the conversation. The Iranians immediately rejected it because they argue that it is full of unfulfillable demands, but the American press exuded optimism last night. CNN leaked that Washington wants to meet with Iranian representatives this weekend. Trump said on Tuesday that Iran is eager to close a deal. From Washington, they will try to sell any deal as a success. From Iran, they accuse the president of being a compulsive liar and demand that the deal must be adapted to their requirements. From Tel Aviv, they say that the talks are doomed to failure. It is not an objective reading: Netanyahu is the main interested party in the bombs continuing.Second bet, escalation. As a result of the quagmire, the Americans threaten to intensify the war. Washington has multiplied the sending of more soldiers to the Middle East, has invoked the nuclear threat and is spreading incendiary proclamations. "President Trump does not back down and is prepared to unleash hell," said yesterday the White House Press Secretary, the also very incendiary Karoline Leavitt. At this point, bet 1 and bet 2 touch. The Iranians believe that Trump's diplomatic approach is a trap and that the United States is preparing for a more forceful act of war. The Iranians have reasons to distrust Trump: the Republican is a specialist in starting to bomb them while negotiating.
The final decision rests on the table of a president wounded in pride, quite cornered and who detests losing. Neither of the two bets are winners for Trump. The Republican's policy depends on the strength that victory grants him. If he ultimately does not find triumph in Iran, he will leave as best he can and will dangerously look for it elsewhere, be it Cuba or Ukraine. he will dangerously look for it elsewhere, be it Cuba or Ukraine.
The inscrutable paths of war are often dangerous.
