In the great Russian metropolises there are no air-raid shelters, no emergency protocols, the sirens do not sound when drones approach. People record from home, between fascination and unreality, how the aircraft fly over buildings with an unsettling parsimony until they crash. No one wants to think that these explosions could affect their apartment or that they could be the next victims. In the fifth summer of the war, the bulk of Russian urban society refuses to accept that it is at war, even though it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to hide the ravages of the conflict within its cities.

Donald Trump appeared triumphantly on the stage of the G-7 summit in the French city of Évian. In the closing press conference, he stated that, with the memorandum of understanding agreed with Iran, the United States had achieved "everything they had set out to do and much more." As usual, he boasted that the U.S. military is the most powerful in the world and assured that they could have continued bombing Iran for weeks or even years, but that he stopped it to avoid "an economic catastrophe." Hours later, he signed the agreement in a solemn place: the Palace of Versailles. In front of the host, Emmanuel Macron, and some cameras, Trump stamped his signature on the document on the table of the state banquet that the French president had offered in his honor. In theory, the agreement was to be signed this Friday in Switzerland, but at this time it is unknown if Trump will do it, if his vice president Vance will go, and if Iran will send someone of importance. What is certain, however, is that Trump has already signed it.

In geopolitics, things change very quickly, and while a few weeks ago Vladimir Putin appeared to be one of the indirect winners of the Iran war, as the closure of Hormuz benefited his oil exports, now with the agreement to reopen the strait, the tables may have turned. At least that is what the European members of the G-7 intend, who plan to pressure Donald Trump to take advantage now to increase pressure on the Kremlin to desist from the occupation of Ukraine and agree to sign a peace deal. Trump himself has agreed, and he was seen in a friendly attitude chatting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the Evian summit in France.

If there is one thing the G-7 countries agree on, it is that the pact between the United States and Iran to end the conflict could provide a boost for peace in Ukraine. With the war in Iran, that of Ukraine had taken a back seat. But now, with the Middle East conflict on track – albeit with a fragile agreement – the wind is blowing in the right direction. At the summit gathering the seven major world powers – France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States – in the French city of Évian-les-Bains until this Wednesday, the G-7 leaders have united to redouble pressure on Russia to sit down and negotiate peace. "Russia should reach an agreement," warned US President Donald Trump.

Russia launched one of the most massive aerial attacks in recent months against Ukraine early Monday. Among the affected targets is the Dormition Cathedral of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, one of the great spiritual and cultural emblems of Ukraine and Orthodox Christianity, founded in the 11th century, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site. The attack caused a spectacular fire.

Practically no one discusses the positive effects the EU has had on the development of European societies over the last seventy years. In addition to the advantages in socio-economic matters –common economic space and currency, development, social rights, etc.–, it is a period of stability framed by the absence of internal wars between member states. It is a positive outcome arising from the nefarious wartime experience of the Second World War.Today this European internal peace is not in danger. The same cannot be said, however, for the international situation in which the EU (and NATO) states are involved. As things stand, it is not out of the question that a war with Russia could occur in the short term. This would represent an irresponsible stupidity, as war interests neither of the two potential sides. Let's take it step by step.1. Western discourses on “European security” are neither analyzed nor conducted in parallel with the objectives of Russian security. The lack of Hobbesian empathy – analyzing the world of international relations from the perspective of “the other” – tends to erode the possibilities of resolving conflicts through diplomatic means. The security sought is never only one's own.2. It is partly demagogic to present Russia as the "aggressor" state, silencing NATO's prior expansionist policy towards Eastern Europe. An expansion that violated the previous agreements (Gorbachev) that made possible – with Russia's acceptance – the unification of Germany in 1990 after the collapse of the Soviet regime. As I have said on occasion, the subsequent will of the USA (NATO) to win the post-war period after winning the Cold War is at the origin of the current problems.3. As highlighted by the North American academic Jeffrey Sachs, European states are not reliable actors when it comes to respecting international agreements: they have constantly violated them. A small list: the aforementioned expansion of NATO; the disregard for Russia's collaboration proposals in the early years of the 21st century (summits of Munich and Bucharest), which led to the predictable invasion of Crimea, a Russian territory since the end of the 18th century, in 2014; the recognized European deception (ratified by Merkel) of the Minsk II agreements (2015) despite the collaboration of France and Germany. It does not seem that the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022) was precisely a surprise. The Western boycott (USA, United Kingdom) of the Istanbul agreement of 2022 goes in the same direction.4. Wars have changed. The economic costs of attack missions are lower than the costs of a defensive nature. The combination of drones, missiles, and the growing strategic weight of artificial intelligence are a further factor of instability, as well as possible errors and tactical decisions without human control. Wars are currently easier to start and harder to end.5. Germany and Japan, the two main defeated powers in World War II, are beginning to be immersed in a program of strong militarization. Defense (or war) budgets of these two states are expected to increase significantly in the next decade. Germany's case, seen from Russia, can only be read as a real threat. It was the Germans who invaded Russia just a few decades ago. Furthermore, a (US) general and an (Lithuanian) Foreign Minister of NATO have threatened to attack Kaliningrad, a Russian settlement in the Baltic. An example of irresponsible irrationality.

No face-to-face meetings or concessions. The letter that Volodymyr Zelensky sent to Vladimir Putin in which he asked him to end the war in Ukraine has received the expected response: an unappealable no. The Russian president appeared at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum amidst escalating bombings and with his soldiers struggling to advance a few meters on the front, but he showed himself convinced, once again, that the conflict can only end with Russia's victory. 

Volodymyr Zelensky warns Vladimir Putin that if he does not decide to end the war in Ukraine, he runs the risk of being a victim of a coup. In an open letter to the Russian president, the Ukrainian leader assures that it is not a threat, but that this is how Russian history works. "When Russia gets tired, changes occur," he writes. According to Zelensky, if Putin does not come to the conclusion that this conflict must end, "he will have to fight for his own survival".

The impact of a drone against an apartment block in the Romanian city of Galati, near the border with Ukraine, highlights the danger that the war could end up involving NATO more directly. Friday's incident has not been the first incident with Russian drones or missiles outside Ukrainian territory, while the Baltic countries also warn of the risk they face due to the deviation of Ukrainian drones entering their airspace. We analyze this with Tony Lawrence, head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Program at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) based in Tallinn (Estonia).

The Russian economy has faced pessimistic forecasts since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when a large part of Western countries gradually imposed all kinds of industrial and financial sanctions on it. Despite this, Moscow's narrative had been that the country's economy was holding up well to the economic shock, partly thanks to public investment and industrial activity resulting from the war, which offset the impact of the sanctions.

The Iran war has given President Vladimir Putin a boost. At the very least, it has diverted United States military efforts from Ukraine to the Middle East, to the despair of a Europe (and especially Kyiv) that is struggling to accept the need to take charge of its own defense. But does this mean the Russian leader feels stronger and more at ease? The answer is no. The Russian leader's hand is not that strong. Let's see why.

If the Soviet Victory Day truce against Nazi Germany in 2025 led to the first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years, this year's ceasefire has led to an escalation of the conflict. Volodymyr Zelensky promised on Thursday that he would respond "fairly" to the large-scale Russian bombing with more than 1,600 drones and missiles, which ravaged Kyiv, leaving 24 dead and around fifty injured. And this Sunday he has responded. Russian air defenses detected 556 Ukrainian drones during the early hours of the morning, 120 of which were heading towards Moscow, in the largest attack on the capital since the start of the war, now more than four years ago.

The three-day truce agreed between Russia and Ukraine with the mediation of Donald Trump, which expired on Monday night, was marked by three elements: Volodymyr Zelensky refrained from launching drones against Red Square during Volodymyr Putin's military parade; if this agreement were violated, Moscow threatened a retaliatory attack against Kyiv; and, in a humanitarian gesture, each side committed to releasing a thousand prisoners. 24 hours after the ceasefire ended, the Russian army launched one of the most massive bombardments against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, and the Kremlin resisted carrying out the promised exchange of captives.

Vladimir Putin’s obsession with reversing the demographic crisis that has plagued Russia for more than ten years has encountered an obstacle of his own making: the war in Ukraine. Tens of thousands of men, many of them young men of reproductive age, have lost their lives on the front lines since 2022. To try to compensate for this bleeding, which adds to the endemic low birth rate, several initiatives have been proposed so that these soldiers can reproduce after death and render a final service to the homeland and their families.

Vladimir Putin has ignored the ceasefire offer proposed by Volodymyr Zelensky, which came into effect this Wednesday, just after midnight. Ukraine denounces that Russian drones have attacked several cities and caused casualties. According to Kyiv authorities, this shows that the Russian president rejects peace and that his invitation to stop attacks on Friday and Saturday only aims to secure Russia's Victory Day military parade this Saturday. Some voices within the Ukrainian government even advocate for not respecting the truce promoted by the Kremlin on its important holiday.

Ukraine has threatened to sanction Israeli individuals and companies that buy grain produced in Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia. According to Volodymyr Zelensky in a message on X this Tuesday, the Ukrainian government is working on a package of sanctions for people who transport and buy grain that Kyiv considers "stolen by Russia". "In any normal country, the purchase of stolen goods is an act that entails legal responsibility," the Ukrainian leader retorted.

Yuriy Zarko, mayor of Bilopíl·lia, works about twelve hours a day. Whether delivering supplies to a retired woman, in a meeting about the Russian mines scattered around the area or visiting a courtyard where a projectile has fallen, this public servant, always accompanied by his drone detector, walks the streets of his hometown, which before the war had about sixteen thousand inhabitants. "Now there must be about six thousand, but we don't know; before the conflict I managed about twenty square kilometers of land, but now, due to the reorganization of the front, my responsibility has extended to 500. Many community leaders have left, but I have decided to stay, they are my people and I am the head of the council," he says with a vital and bitter smile.

The territorial dispute clouds the peace negotiations over Ukraine, now suspended due to the conflict in the Middle East. Although the recognition of the occupied regions as Russian is important for Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin's ambitions involve the Belarusianization of Kyiv, that is, its political subordination. Moscow wants a meek and friendly neighbor that poses no threat in itself to Russia, nor as a vanguard of hypothetical Western aggression. However, the Russian president missed the opportunity to depose Volodymyr Zelensky at the start of the war, and after four years of daily bombings, the advent of a pro-Russian government in Ukraine seems like a fantasy or a bad joke.

“Are there any men in the audience? No? What a shame! Take off your pants and put on a skirt!” With these words, the dean of Voronezh State University of Engineering, in southwestern Russia, tried to pressure his students to go fight in Ukraine. The Kremlin has demanded that the rectors of the institutions send 2% of enrolled students to the war. They promise them one year of service in a drone unit far from the front lines, astronomical salaries, and a secure future, but activists warn that it is a trap and that they are very likely to get caught and lose their lives. astronomical salaries and a secure future, but activists warn that it is a trap and that they are very likely to get caught and lose their lives.