The Ukrainian oligarch Vadim Ermolaev, his wife and his thirteen-year-old daughter were victims last week of a sudden explosion as they entered the building where they live, on Révérend Père Louis Frolla street, in Monaco. According to police sources, the detonation was caused by a device hidden in a backpack that targeted this businessman with a troubled past, leaving him critically injured, as was his wife. On Friday, the Monaco Prosecutor's Office identified Anastasiia Berezovska, a 39-year-old Ukrainian woman, as the presumed perpetrator of the attack. Berezovska, disguised as a man, left the device at the door and detonated it remotely when Ermolaev, his wife, and his daughter arrived at the building, according to the prosecutor. The suspect, who allegedly did not act alone, fled on foot to France and was seen in Frankfurt days later.

With NATO mired in its internal tensions, Russia and Ukraine have decided to intensify the strategy of inflicting maximum possible damage on each other, before any talk of negotiating their immediate future resumes.

Russia does not loosen its pressure on Ukraine. This Monday in the early morning, Moscow has once again bombed Kyiv, just four days after the last fatal attack on the Ukrainian capital. At least 14 people have died in Kyiv and six more have lost their lives in the neighboring town of Vyshneve, where 500 people have been evacuated due to the risk of new explosions following attacks on fuel depots. In addition, according to the balance of the Ukrainian authorities, 87 people have been injured.

It is not at all common to see Putin take responsibility for political or military errors with words equivalent to self-criticism. Such as acknowledging that Ukrainian drones are putting Russia in difficulty. He said it just ten days ago. The head of the Kremlin promised security to Russians with a tone of humility. Citizens who for weeks have been forced to endure air raid alerts, drone explosions, and the surprise of discovering fuel shortages for their vehicles. Shocks that are added to figures that can no longer be hidden, not in the kitchens, nor in the air shafts, nor on the street sidewalks: half a million Russian soldiers could have died in the war in Ukraine according to the latest data from British intelligence services.

The European Commission has proposed this Friday to extend by one year plus the temporary international protection regulations for Ukrainians who flee the war and seek refuge in the European Union. However, Brussels has proposed amending legislation to exclude from the right to remain in EU territory all Ukrainian citizens who are of military age (mostly men between 23 and 60 years old) and are able to serve in the Ukrainian army.

The European Union wants to have a say in the war in Ukraine again. After months on the sidelines of negotiations sponsored by Donald Trump, which were paralyzed as soon as the war with Iran began, Brussels considers that there is now a momentum for diplomacy with Russia and to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict.

In the great Russian metropolises there are no air-raid shelters, no emergency protocols, the sirens do not sound when drones approach. People record from home, between fascination and unreality, how the aircraft fly over buildings with an unsettling parsimony until they crash. No one wants to think that these explosions could affect their apartment or that they could be the next victims. In the fifth summer of the war, the bulk of Russian urban society refuses to accept that it is at war, even though it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to hide the ravages of the conflict within its cities.

Donald Trump appeared triumphantly on the stage of the G-7 summit in the French city of Évian. In the closing press conference, he stated that, with the memorandum of understanding agreed with Iran, the United States had achieved "everything they had set out to do and much more." As usual, he boasted that the U.S. military is the most powerful in the world and assured that they could have continued bombing Iran for weeks or even years, but that he stopped it to avoid "an economic catastrophe." Hours later, he signed the agreement in a solemn place: the Palace of Versailles. In front of the host, Emmanuel Macron, and some cameras, Trump stamped his signature on the document on the table of the state banquet that the French president had offered in his honor. In theory, the agreement was to be signed this Friday in Switzerland, but at this time it is unknown if Trump will do it, if his vice president Vance will go, and if Iran will send someone of importance. What is certain, however, is that Trump has already signed it.

In geopolitics, things change very quickly, and while a few weeks ago Vladimir Putin appeared to be one of the indirect winners of the Iran war, as the closure of Hormuz benefited his oil exports, now with the agreement to reopen the strait, the tables may have turned. At least that is what the European members of the G-7 intend, who plan to pressure Donald Trump to take advantage now to increase pressure on the Kremlin to desist from the occupation of Ukraine and agree to sign a peace deal. Trump himself has agreed, and he was seen in a friendly attitude chatting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the Evian summit in France.

If there is one thing the G-7 countries agree on, it is that the pact between the United States and Iran to end the conflict could provide a boost for peace in Ukraine. With the war in Iran, that of Ukraine had taken a back seat. But now, with the Middle East conflict on track – albeit with a fragile agreement – the wind is blowing in the right direction. At the summit gathering the seven major world powers – France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States – in the French city of Évian-les-Bains until this Wednesday, the G-7 leaders have united to redouble pressure on Russia to sit down and negotiate peace. "Russia should reach an agreement," warned US President Donald Trump.

Russia launched one of the most massive aerial attacks in recent months against Ukraine early Monday. Among the affected targets is the Dormition Cathedral of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, one of the great spiritual and cultural emblems of Ukraine and Orthodox Christianity, founded in the 11th century, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site. The attack caused a spectacular fire.

Practically no one discusses the positive effects the EU has had on the development of European societies over the last seventy years. In addition to the advantages in socio-economic matters –common economic space and currency, development, social rights, etc.–, it is a period of stability framed by the absence of internal wars between member states. It is a positive outcome arising from the nefarious wartime experience of the Second World War.Today this European internal peace is not in danger. The same cannot be said, however, for the international situation in which the EU (and NATO) states are involved. As things stand, it is not out of the question that a war with Russia could occur in the short term. This would represent an irresponsible stupidity, as war interests neither of the two potential sides. Let's take it step by step.1. Western discourses on “European security” are neither analyzed nor conducted in parallel with the objectives of Russian security. The lack of Hobbesian empathy – analyzing the world of international relations from the perspective of “the other” – tends to erode the possibilities of resolving conflicts through diplomatic means. The security sought is never only one's own.2. It is partly demagogic to present Russia as the "aggressor" state, silencing NATO's prior expansionist policy towards Eastern Europe. An expansion that violated the previous agreements (Gorbachev) that made possible – with Russia's acceptance – the unification of Germany in 1990 after the collapse of the Soviet regime. As I have said on occasion, the subsequent will of the USA (NATO) to win the post-war period after winning the Cold War is at the origin of the current problems.3. As highlighted by the North American academic Jeffrey Sachs, European states are not reliable actors when it comes to respecting international agreements: they have constantly violated them. A small list: the aforementioned expansion of NATO; the disregard for Russia's collaboration proposals in the early years of the 21st century (summits of Munich and Bucharest), which led to the predictable invasion of Crimea, a Russian territory since the end of the 18th century, in 2014; the recognized European deception (ratified by Merkel) of the Minsk II agreements (2015) despite the collaboration of France and Germany. It does not seem that the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022) was precisely a surprise. The Western boycott (USA, United Kingdom) of the Istanbul agreement of 2022 goes in the same direction.4. Wars have changed. The economic costs of attack missions are lower than the costs of a defensive nature. The combination of drones, missiles, and the growing strategic weight of artificial intelligence are a further factor of instability, as well as possible errors and tactical decisions without human control. Wars are currently easier to start and harder to end.5. Germany and Japan, the two main defeated powers in World War II, are beginning to be immersed in a program of strong militarization. Defense (or war) budgets of these two states are expected to increase significantly in the next decade. Germany's case, seen from Russia, can only be read as a real threat. It was the Germans who invaded Russia just a few decades ago. Furthermore, a (US) general and an (Lithuanian) Foreign Minister of NATO have threatened to attack Kaliningrad, a Russian settlement in the Baltic. An example of irresponsible irrationality.

No face-to-face meetings or concessions. The letter that Volodymyr Zelensky sent to Vladimir Putin in which he asked him to end the war in Ukraine has received the expected response: an unappealable no. The Russian president appeared at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum amidst escalating bombings and with his soldiers struggling to advance a few meters on the front, but he showed himself convinced, once again, that the conflict can only end with Russia's victory. 

Volodymyr Zelensky warns Vladimir Putin that if he does not decide to end the war in Ukraine, he runs the risk of being a victim of a coup. In an open letter to the Russian president, the Ukrainian leader assures that it is not a threat, but that this is how Russian history works. "When Russia gets tired, changes occur," he writes. According to Zelensky, if Putin does not come to the conclusion that this conflict must end, "he will have to fight for his own survival".

The impact of a drone against an apartment block in the Romanian city of Galati, near the border with Ukraine, highlights the danger that the war could end up involving NATO more directly. Friday's incident has not been the first incident with Russian drones or missiles outside Ukrainian territory, while the Baltic countries also warn of the risk they face due to the deviation of Ukrainian drones entering their airspace. We analyze this with Tony Lawrence, head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Program at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) based in Tallinn (Estonia).

The Russian economy has faced pessimistic forecasts since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when a large part of Western countries gradually imposed all kinds of industrial and financial sanctions on it. Despite this, Moscow's narrative had been that the country's economy was holding up well to the economic shock, partly thanks to public investment and industrial activity resulting from the war, which offset the impact of the sanctions.

The Iran war has given President Vladimir Putin a boost. At the very least, it has diverted United States military efforts from Ukraine to the Middle East, to the despair of a Europe (and especially Kyiv) that is struggling to accept the need to take charge of its own defense. But does this mean the Russian leader feels stronger and more at ease? The answer is no. The Russian leader's hand is not that strong. Let's see why.

If the Soviet Victory Day truce against Nazi Germany in 2025 led to the first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years, this year's ceasefire has led to an escalation of the conflict. Volodymyr Zelensky promised on Thursday that he would respond "fairly" to the large-scale Russian bombing with more than 1,600 drones and missiles, which ravaged Kyiv, leaving 24 dead and around fifty injured. And this Sunday he has responded. Russian air defenses detected 556 Ukrainian drones during the early hours of the morning, 120 of which were heading towards Moscow, in the largest attack on the capital since the start of the war, now more than four years ago.

The three-day truce agreed between Russia and Ukraine with the mediation of Donald Trump, which expired on Monday night, was marked by three elements: Volodymyr Zelensky refrained from launching drones against Red Square during Volodymyr Putin's military parade; if this agreement were violated, Moscow threatened a retaliatory attack against Kyiv; and, in a humanitarian gesture, each side committed to releasing a thousand prisoners. 24 hours after the ceasefire ended, the Russian army launched one of the most massive bombardments against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, and the Kremlin resisted carrying out the promised exchange of captives.