New twist in the Junts battle in Barcelona. The Junts deputy in Congress, Pilar Calvo, will also run to be the candidate for mayor of the Catalan capital, as reported by RAC1 and confirmed by Europa Press. This step further increases the proliferation of candidates for the contest: as reported by ARA, beyond the municipal leader, Jordi Martí, lawyer Jaume Alonso-Cuevillas and deputy and secretary of the Parliament's table Glòria Freixa are also finalizing their candidacies pending officialization, while former minister Jaume Giró is still considering it. Former minister Josep Maria Argimon is not currently in the race, according to consulted sources, even though he met with the general secretary, Jordi Turull, just as the rest of the people who had been proposed to lead the project met with him.

The first polls on the May 12 elections, published this Monday in El Español and La Razón, point to a clear victory for the PSC, with a majority of between 36 and 42 seats, and give second place to Junts, which would overtake ERC at the polls. According to these surveys, therefore, Pere Aragonès's party would be the main loser compared to the 2021 elections. The commons could also suffer the consequences of the early elections, protagonists in recent weeks of the legislature for their no

The PSC remains ahead in the polls a month and a half before the 12-M elections. Also in the latest barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) made public this Thursday, even though the poll was conducted before the announcement by the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, of advancing the elections. Be that as it may, if the parliamentary elections were held today, the socialists would revalidate the victory of three years ago and would aim to obtain between 35 and 42 seats, a slight setback compared to the November survey (the November poll) (39-45). Behind them would be ERC, with 26-32 seats and an average rating of its government by Catalans of 4.3 (the same as the Spanish government's). The Republicans see Junts approaching them, which would rise to 24-29 seats. The poll data was collected between February 9 and March 7. Precisely on the last day, the agreement for the amnesty law was materialized and approved in the Justice Commission of the Congress. During this period, the Koldo case also broke out, which implicates the former Minister of Transport, the socialist José Luis Ábalos, and in early February, farmers began to mobilize in the streets.

The path to Junts primaries in Barcelona has already begun and four candidates are starting to make their move. As ARA has been able to learn, former Economy Minister Jaume Giró is considering it, although, of the four, he is the one who sees the option of taking the step to run as furthest away. Lawyer Jaume Alonso-Cuevillas is finalizing his candidacy while waiting to speak with former president Carles Puigdemont, and the secretary of the Parliament's desk Glòria Freixa is leaning towards running. All three would join the municipal leader, Jordi Martí, who a few days ago officially announced he would run in the primaries, causing an internal earthquake in the party.

Vic has exceeded the 50,000 inhabitants threshold for the first time. It has gained 20,000 in the last thirty years, representing an approximate increase of 66%, double the Catalan average in the same period. The region's omnipresent agri-food industry, especially the meat sector, is a magnet for foreign labor, which already accounts for 30% of the population, more than half of whom are of African origin.

Josep Rius renounces the race for the mayoralty of Barcelona in 2027. The Junts spokesperson communicated, this Monday in an open letter to the Junts militants, that despite having considered "very seriously" leading the project, Jordi Martí's candidacy has changed the landscape. Rius prefers to step aside before fueling a confrontation that, according to him, would not strengthen the party:

Junts per Sabadell has decided that in the next municipal elections it will not run alone, but within the framework of a joint candidacy. And it also endorses that the candidate be the former leader of ERC in the Vallesana city, Gabriel Fernàndez. This is what the party's militants in Sabadell have decided, who with 73.5% of the votes have supported this option; 20.6% have voted against, and 5.9% have abstained, as reported by the formation in a statement. The objective, the party states, is to "work for a broad candidacy that confronts the PSC" in the 2027 municipal elections.

Joan Campolier (Santa Susanna, 1950) has justified that his town hosts for the fourth consecutive year in two weekends' time a Nazi festival because it is a "private party" and that the City Council "can do nothing". The anti-fascist groups that held a demonstration on Friday and the opposition parties do not think the same, who denounce that once again the mayor of this municipality in Maresme has not sought a way to prevent it. "It is held on non-developable land, it can be considered a rave and groups that glorify Nazism act when legislation pursues it," retorts the head of the opposition and spokesperson for a coalition that includes ERC, Jordi Cusachs, who believes that "the council has a lot to say".

The choice of Junts' candidate for Barcelona City Council is not only unresolved, but also complicated. As ARA has learned, the party's spokesperson in the consistory, Jordi Martí, has informed the leadership of his decision to run in a potential primary and fight for the position. An intention that clashes with Junts' leadership's desire to appoint a candidate without an internal dispute. In fact, after receiving a 'no' from independents such as businessman Tatxo Benet or former president Artur Mas and ex-councillor Joaquim Forn, the leadership's most likely option was the spokesperson, Josep Rius. Carles Puigdemont's right-hand man since he was president of the Generalitat.

Movements between Junts and the Spanish government. The Minister of Housing, Isabel Rodríguez, was open this Tuesday to approving the tax incentives that Junts is asking for in the housing portfolio: "It is an opportunity that we should take advantage of," she stated in an interview with ACN. The PSOE has tried to convey that the measures of Carles Puigdemont's party can go ahead, and the Junts members also note that, now yes, things can go differently than the last two times the issue has been voted on in Congress. Thus, according to Junts sources consulted, the party accepts the challenge and shows its willingness to approve the extension of rents, in parallel to the executive also promoting a decree with tax deductions for mortgages and rents. The Junts members would accept them being presented in two separate decrees, as long as both end up passing.

The convergent gene re-emerges within Junts in the midst of a process to straighten out the party and its ideological bases, but there is a Junts sector that still self-identifies as left-wing. This situation is causing internal tensions, both at the national and local levels, and sources consulted by ARA explain that a portion of the party's leaders believe that the time has come to dispense with this current, and some even advocate for ending all currents within the party and channeling nuances through unity. Right now, however, this is not a viable scenario, as no major shifts are expected from former president Carles Puigdemont. But, what is the influence of the left within Junts?

That Gabriel Rufián and Sílvia Orriols are the two most popular politicians in Catalonia reflects quite severely the situation of our politics and, by extension, the state of mind, the spiritual state, if you prefer, of the country. I will not dwell on qualifications regarding their methods or discourse, neither the spokesperson for the Esquerra group in Congress nor the mayor – mayoress, she says – of Ripoll. It is enough to remember that they are two populist and polarizing styles. By this I do not mean, in any way, that they are equal or comparable (Rufián does not use Orriols' Islamophobia), but simply that I do not find them to be examples of good politics, nor commendable figures. It is also significant that neither Rufián nor Orriols are national politicians, even though Orriols has a seat in Parliament. The popularity we spoke of they have achieved outside of national politics, understood as that which has Catalonia as its scope and object. Rufián has been in Madrid for ages. Orriols has his epicenter in the city of Ripoll. Where are the national politicians? Well, all of them below Rufián and Orriols, as indicated by the latest poll published by ARA. The President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, occupies third place. And Carles Puigdemont, ninth (second to last). Oriol Junqueras appears in a not-so-bad fourth position. Furthermore, his party, which wins many votes, seems to be recovering from the dismal last electoral cycle. The problem here is another: Rufián is more popular than Junqueras both among the electorate in general and among Republican voters in particular. An insolent question for the leadership of ERC: in view of this, should the party strive to be more like Rufián or vice versa: should Rufián try to be more like the party? Let's add some other element. The capital change that is taking place in Catalonia is the meteoric rise of Aliança Catalana, Orriols' formation. This can change almost everything. One of the consequences of this growth, regarding the combination of forces, is that it will absolutely prevent a new pro-independence government in Catalonia. Whoever still has this dream should let it go. Forget about it for a long time. If it was already very complicated before, it will now become impossible. Neither the PSC, nor the PP, nor Vox will have achieved it. The voters of a party that, what a paradox, calls itself and wants to be more Catalan and more pro-independence than anyone else will have achieved it: Aliança Catalana. As can be seen, the general landscape drawn by the ARA poll – which agrees with other previous opinion studies – is between strange and bleak. And no, it is no consolation that in other places, near or far, they are worse off than us.

Elisenda Carrera is no longer a councilor for Ara Vic. The Vic City Council reported this Wednesday that the Ara Vic councilor has formally requested to leave the political group and become a non-attached councilor. The decision comes the day after Xavier Farrés, the other councilor for the Vigatan formation of the defunct PDECat, announced that they would expel her if she did not leave the council, at a press conference in the consistory accompanied by other members of the party's executive. Her departure comes in response to rumors, as advanced by el ARA, which place her as the possible candidate for Aliança Catalana in Vic in the next municipal elections. "Expulsion no longer makes sense because it was her decision to leave the group," Farrés states in conversation with el ARA.

It is quite likely that the rise of Aliança Catalana reflected in mea culpa, more than one party and union will assume at least part of the responsibility. The most significant element of the shift we are discussing is, therefore, that a part of the pro-independence electorate has stopped prioritizing the national issue almost exclusively to begin emphasizing the issues listed before: immigration (perceived as excessive), security (repeat criminal offenses, etc.), or the preservation of ways of being and existing (the clothing of some Muslim women, etc.). According to CEO data the number of responses reinforcing the impression that there are more immigrants in Catalonia than actually live there has doubled... in just one year! We are therefore not facing a percentage anecdote, but a real change of direction. These perceptions –not necessarily correlatable with objective data– are the perfect fuel for any political formation that decides to articulate discontent in terms of cultural protection and defense of the territory.

The results shown by the survey published today by ARA, with all the precautions that a poll taken when no election is in sight entails, depict a profound and very worrying alteration of the Catalan party map. Basically, what is seen is a strong setback for the traditional centre-right parties, Junts and PP, who are overtaken by more radical and openly Islamophobic parties such as Aliança Catalana and Vox. The result is a much more polarized country with less room for broad consensus, and politically much more difficult to govern.

The results shown by the survey published today by ARA, with all the reservations that a poll conducted when no election is in sight entails, outline a profound alteration of the Catalan party map in a very worrying sense. Basically, what is seen is a sharp decline of the traditional centre-right parties, Junts and PP, which are surpassed by more radical and openly Islamophobic parties such as Aliança Catalana and Vox. The result is a much more polarized country with less space for broad consensus, and politically much more difficult to govern.

This time we have had a more representative May Day compared to some of the preceding years. In the events called for by the unions, the emotional chord was struck deeply, in mobilizations that respond to a specific political and social situation and that carry a clear message. The main celebration was held in Malaga for various reasons, starting with the fact that Andalusia votes on May 17. The call has allowed for an image of a certain unity of the left, which we already know does not exist in political terms. However, it has become clear that there are indeed essential points of coincidence, susceptible of becoming driving ideas for future initiatives, especially as the general elections approach. The fact that María Jesús Montero and Yolanda Díaz coincided at the Malaga demonstration does not reduce their differences, but it does reflect a common denominator on key issues.

When Jordi Pujol created CDC in 1974, he was not only founding a party, but also articulating an entire social sector, caricatured by his adversaries as the shopkeeper, but which encompassed everyone from the middle and artisan classes to small business owners and the self-employed, as well as farmers and skilled workers. Pujol also endowed Convergència, and by extension CiU, with a political identity that pivoted on two key points: an unshakeable commitment to Catalonia, on the one hand, and a certain ideological flexibility and preference for pacts, on the other. This space evolved from a pragmatic nationalism, in favor of the peix al cove (fish in the basket), to independentism with Artur Mas and Carles Puigdemont. But it has remained, in its main coordinates, grouped around Junts. This political space is now in danger with the emergence of Aliança Catalana, which represents, from the far right, an amendment in its entirety to the Pujolista DNA.

It hasn't even been two years since Salvador Illa became president of the Generalitat, and the oasis of tranquility he enjoyed in his first months is beginning to look more and more like a mirage. For a long time now, protests in the streets have been added to the difficulties of governing in minority, with teachers being one of the most demanding groups. The ARA survey, conducted by YouGov, detects some electoral wear and tear for the PSC, but, despite everything, the socialists would consolidate their first position today if the elections were brought forward. There is no forecast of this happening, even though negotiations for the budget with ERC are still open, which adds a point of unpredictability to the calendar. The PSC would obtain between 36 and 42 seats and would see the second party in the Parlament no longer be Junts, the main victim in case of elections, but Esquerra (27-30).

In a country that is doing badly, with a minority Generalitat government and too many open fronts, one might think that Catalan sovereignty has a window of opportunity to regain prominence and raise the level of national ambition. Instead, the parties that led the Procés – Junts and ERC – are competing in their own ring, in a bubble that only interests their leaders, and setting aside national interest, which is what could truly propel them electorally. It is one thing that there is no strategic unity; and another is that the weekly squabbles between Rufián and Nogueras occupy the space and time that their respective parties should dedicate to taking advantage of the weakness of the PSC and the PSOE.This week, Junts has seized media prominence with a double refusal. The first – voting against the housing decree – is difficult to understand in a context of housing emergency, especially considering that the PSOE and Sumar were willing to negotiate fiscal measures for small landlords and self-employed workers. That Puigdemont's party has been so inflexible is explained by temperamental reasons (taking revenge on Yolanda Díaz for her theatrics) and tactical ones (making themselves valuable to the Catalan economic right). It is legitimate for Junts to want to regain the center-right space, but doing so at the cost of tenants' suffering is, at the very least, insensitive. Future elections will tell them if the gamble has been successful or not.It is more incomprehensible that Junts opposes the State-Generalitat investment consortium, a measure agreed upon by ERC with the PSOE to prevent unexecuted investments (systematically and scandalously) by successive Spanish governments from being lost. This can only be explained by absurd maximalism and by the desire not to give any success to adversaries, even if it reduces the Generalitat's resources and decision-making power. Furthermore, the terminology used by Nogueras (“We don't need another little stall”) seems more appropriate for other political options.However: instead of taking advantage of this slip-up to present themselves as the party of useful sovereignty, ERC has preferred, once again, to leave its narrative in the hands of Gabriel Rufián, who has turned it into a very low-tone comedy in the Congress tribune, focusing only on the housing issue (as if the investment consortium issue were too “local” for his audience) and engaging in unnecessary mockery of Junts deputies, which has allowed them to portray themselves as victims. And the Junts circle has upped the ante by comparing Rufián to Albert Rivera, and his discourse, to the logic of "A por ellos". Each episode of this farce is worse than the last. And meanwhile, the ERC leadership remains silent. Rufián gains and loses votes, we don't quite know to what extent, but his one-sided hostility torpedoes one of the party's assets: the ability to maneuver between the PSC and Junts, depending on the area of decision and the circumstances.I have always thought that Junts and ERC are two parties too consolidated for sovereignty to do without them. But a moment comes when it is legitimate to ask whether these kindergarten fights, which have been going on for a decade, are not a major obstacle – not to say the main obstacle – for a sovereignty that, at a social and popular level, shows much more maturity than its political representatives. We could say, as Estanislao Figueras did in 1873, that we are fed up with all of us. If this civil war continues (and it will continue as long as neither party is capable of devouring the other), perhaps one day it will have to be considered. Because parties are just tools, and in any trade, useless tools are either repaired or thrown away.