The decision to start a war with Iran, led by Israel on February 28, is proving to be a real trap for Donald Trump, who more than 100 days later has still not found a way out. Far from the speed and military success of the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the ayatollahs' regime has proven to be a much more formidable adversary, capable of regenerating itself from the blows it has received.

The exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran has stopped, at least for now. Iran has declared its military operations concluded this Monday, although it has warned that it will resume them if Israeli bombings against Lebanon continue. Iran launched several attacks this Sunday night, for the first time since the ceasefire signed on April 8, in response to Israeli bombings in the southern neighborhoods of Beirut. And, although it has announced a halt, the Iranian military command has warned that Tehran will act "even more forcefully" if attacks against its interests and those of its allies in the region resume.

100 days after the joint attack by the United States and Israel against Iran, the war is accelerating again. This Sunday, Iran has fired several waves of missiles against Israel for the first time since the ceasefire signed on April 8. This was Tehran's response to the Israeli attack on the southern neighborhoods of Beirut, just four days after the announcement of a new agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon in Washington. The bombing of Dahieh, Hezbollah's political and social stronghold, has left at least two dead and around twenty injured and has marked a new turn in a conflict that, far from showing signs of de-escalation, continues to expand on the ground.

Forty-four years after the start of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon on June 6, 1982, which led to the siege of the capital, Beirut faces an increasingly widespread feeling: exhaustion. Not that of a specific war, but that of a city that has lived for more than four decades amidst intermittent conflicts, incomplete reconstructions, and crises that never seem to be resolved.

A ceasefire is a pause in the war, a moment when the bombs fall silent, either to give a respite to exhausted civilians and soldiers or, in the best of cases, to open an opportunity for diplomacy. But in recent months, in the mouths of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin or Benjamin Netanyahu, this concept has been completely emptied of content to become merely a smokescreen behind which the war continues.

For just a few hours, Washington managed to create the impression that a new era could be opening in Lebanon. After two days of trilateral negotiations, the United States announced a ceasefire agreement late Wednesday between Israel and Lebanon, presented a roadmap for the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south, and set new talks for the end of June. But while the statement circulated among government palaces, another reality was asserting itself on the ground.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire to end hostilities, the Trump administration announced this Wednesday, in the United States' attempt to close the Lebanese front, one of the main obstacles to reaching a broader agreement to end the war with Iran.

Despite de-escalation promises from Washington, in southern Lebanon nothing seems to have changed this Tuesday. The inhabitants of Nabatiyeh have barely had time to process the ceasefire announcements when sirens, evacuation orders, and Israeli bombings have once again imposed themselves over any expectation of calm.

The inhabitants of the southern suburbs of Beirut found themselves on Monday facing a scene they thought they had left behind facing a scene they thought they had left behind. After threats from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, numerous residents began to leave the area for fear of a new bombing campaign against Hezbollah's stronghold. It was not a formal evacuation order, nor was it clear when eventual attacks might occur. But the message was enough to reignite fear. Katz warned that if Hezbollah continues to launch rockets against Israeli cities and towns, the army will respond by hitting targets in the southern suburbs of the capital. Hours later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Minister himself ordered the army to prepare to attack the area, although Donald Trump, assured shortly after, that he had spoken with the prime minister and Hezbollah officials to stop the escalation. Uncertainty, as in every chapter of this war, is accentuated.

Israel took control this Sunday of the historic Beaufort Castle, located in southern Lebanon, just north of the Litani River, and considered a particularly strategic site of great military value, as it is 710 meters above sea level and offers a panoramic view of large areas of southern Lebanon and northern Israel. This makes it an observation and surveillance post. In fact, the fortress, built by the Crusaders in the 12th century, has been key in all of Israel's wars in Lebanon since 1982. Israel already occupied it during the invasion of Lebanon that year, and remained there until 2000, when it withdrew from the country.

The Beaufort Castle, a fortress from the time of the 12th-century crusades, has become the new symbol of the Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon. This Sunday, the Israeli army conquered this castle, which theoretically allows it to control a wide strip of territory largely controlled by Hezbollah, which, despite strong pressure, still launched attacks against Israeli positions again on Saturday. It is still too early to tell, but the gesture of planting the flag there has been seen as a turning point in this conflict, as it has been accompanied by a strong propaganda campaign –photographs of the Israeli flag on the hill and the announcement by Benjamin Netanyahu calling it a "crucial milestone" and urging the continuation of the military incursion– to show how the invasion of Lebanon was progressing beyond the Litani River to establish, in principle, a new "security" border 10 kilometers further north, reaching the Zahrani River.

The fragile truce in Lebanon has once again crumbled, thread by thread, under an escalation that is no longer confined to the southern border, but has reached the capital again and projects the conflict into a broader dimension. In the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday's Israeli attack marked a new turning point. The target was a commander of Hezbollah's missile unit, linked to the structure responsible for the launches against northern Israel. The bombing, described by the Israeli army as "selective," has brought the war back to the heart of the capital's periphery after weeks of relative containment.

“Netanyahu’s promises of victory over Iran end in a glorious capitulation by the United States”. “Israel entered the war as a partner of the United States and ends it on the sidelines.” These have been some headlines in the Israeli press in recent days to describe the negotiations between Washington and Tehran to agree on an end to the war. The military campaign that Israel presented as an existential battle against Iran would be closing with an uncomfortable image for Tel Aviv: Israel has gone from being a key player to being progressively left out of the talks. Israel's leader "will do whatever I want him to do," Trump said last week to the press. These were statements that in Israel were interpreted as an explicit demonstration of the current relationship between both governments. The divergence between the objectives of the United States and those of Israel is evident: Washington prioritizes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and regional stabilization, while Tel Aviv continues to defend a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran and its allies. “Trump wants to see if it is possible to reach an agreement with Iran, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was waiting to resume military action”, Leonie Fleischmann, an expert in Israeli policy at Saint George’s University of London, explains to ARA. According to her, in Israel there is an increasingly clear perception that the United States prioritizes regional containment above Israeli strategic objectives.The feeling that Netanyahu had been sidelined was further accentuated when Trump, last Saturday, had a conversation with several regional leaders to inform them about the negotiations with Iran without including the Israeli prime minister. Netanyahu and Trump spoke later. In parallel, Reuters has cited two Israeli officials according to whom the prime minister would have admitted in private conversations the difficulty of influencing the White House's decisions while negotiations with Tehran advance. According to these sources, the Israeli leader has expressed concern about the content of the agreement.In this regard, several Israeli political and security officials have described the emerging pact as a “bàd deal” because, as they claim, it does not address key issues such as Iran's ballistic missile program or the network of Tehran's allied groups in the region. Others warn that the understanding “dòes not serve Israel's interests” and could give Iran time to recover economically and militarily, according to the Israeli media outlet Channel 12. All of this, for the moment, is based on information published by various media outlets, but still without any official document. Internal criticism is growing

The Israeli opposition has also taken the opportunity to lash out at the government. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has stated that the supposed agreement "is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and even bad for the Iranian citizens." Lapid accuses Netanyahu of having allowed Washington to negotiate practically without coordination with Israel and affirms that the Israeli government is "at the lowest point of its influence capacity in Washington."This perception is compounded by growing criticism within Israel, particularly from sectors of the political right and the security establishment, who believe that Netanyahu's initial promises have not been fulfilled. The Iranian regime remains, retains a significant part of its ballistic arsenal, and maintains its regional influence.At this time, the agreement is not yet finalized but, according to the latest information, Iran could agree to hand over its enriched uranium reserves and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the end of the American blockade on Iranian ports. The most sensitive issues of the nuclear program would remain pending negotiation for a period of sixty days and it is not yet clear whether the agreement will address Iranian missiles or support for regional armed groups, one of the main red lines for Israel.The Lebanon front, a political objective for Netanyahu

It is precisely in this context that the Lebanon front has acquired central importance. In the last few hours, Israel has intensified military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.“There are real security concerns on the northern border, but at the same time, Israel must hold elections before October and Netanyahu is also acting with internal political calculations”, describes Fleischman. According to the analyst, the prime minister's image as “Mr. Security” has been greatly eroded since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and now also by the results of the war with Iran. “The escalation in Lebanon can be understood as an attempt to rebuild this image and maintain political relevance”, he concludes. In this fragile balance, while Washington and Tehran continue to define an agreement and Israel seems to have little capacity for direct influence, Lebanon functions as a political space. A space where Netanyahu tries to preserve his power through the most active front: the northern one.

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Israel is demonstrating with actions that the ceasefire in Lebanon, supposedly in effect, has no real value. On Monday, the Hebrew army initiated a strong escalation of bombings, and two days later it has made it clear that it does not intend to ease up. This Wednesday, the Arabic spokesperson for the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, urged all residents of southern Lebanon to forcibly relocate north of the Zahrani River, about 40 kilometers from the border.

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The fragile ceasefire that since April had partially contained the violence in Lebanon is once again faltering following a strong Israeli escalation that began Monday night, the most intense since the first weeks of the offensive. The new troop movements respond to the call of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to "press the accelerator even harder" against Hezbollah. While Donald Trump tries to keep indirect negotiations with Iran open, and Washington insists on the possibility of a regional agreement – despite the United States' bombings of Iranian positions this Tuesday in the early morning –, on the ground the weapons do not fall silent. Israel has expanded operations, mobilized reservists and multiplied attacks from the south to the Bekaa Valley, in the east of the country, a key area for Lebanese agriculture. In parallel, the Shiite militia Hezbollah has responded in recent hours with 22 drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions. Their targets have included Israeli soldiers, tanks, barracks and buildings. Direct combat has also been recorded north of the Litani River. The Shiite organization continues to carry out a dynamic that, according to analyst Lina Khatib, associated with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program, also responds to directives from Iran, interested in keeping Lebanon within the broader negotiation framework with the United States.

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In Nabatieh, the silence only lasts until the next explosion. From the terrace of a makeshift rescue base, Mohamed Sulayman scans the southern Lebanese valley for columns of smoke. Every gray cloud on the horizon could signify a hit house, a bombed road, or a family trapped under rubble. When the phone rings, volunteers rush to the ambulances without knowing if they will return.

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In the port area of Beirut, amidst the metallic noise of containers, the wind coming from the Mediterranean, and the concrete blocks of the Biel exhibition center, displacement has ceased to seem like an emergency and has become a stable landscape of precariousness. The space functions as an informal settlement where hundreds of displaced people from southern Lebanonare concentrated, who have fled the Israeli bombs. Blue tarps stretched between metal structures, improvised tents attached to cement walls, and mattresses directly on the ground; a landscape that is beginning to become commonplace.

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In Beirut, his hometown, Roger Nasr was the baker at the establishment Roger Le Boulanger. Under the same name, he created a small bakery-workshop in the Sants neighborhood of Barcelona when, in 2019, he and his wife, born in Figueres, decided to leave Lebanon and move to Catalonia to "ensure a better future" for their son, who was then 7 years old. Both in Beirut and Barcelona, at Roger's "bakeries", customers particularly appreciated the "nomad bread", rescued from an ancestral recipe and made with sourdough, flour from local producers, unrefined sea salt, and spring water.

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While the Lebanese and Israeli delegations have met again in Washington for a new round of direct talks, and have agreed to extend the ceasefire, international consensus seems clear: the war has weakened Hezbollah and opened an unprecedented opportunity to advance towards its disarmament. But on the ground, especially in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, the reality is much more contradictory.

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The truce announced on April 17 between Israel and Lebanon was supposed to be a pause on one of the most unstable fronts in the Middle East. Less than a month later, the ceasefire is barely surviving diplomatic statements. Since the weekend, Israeli bombings have left around a hundred dead in southern Lebanon, according to provisional figures from the country's Ministry of Health. The total death toll since March 2nd until this Monday is 2,869 dead and 8,730 injured. Since the truce was declared, more than 400 fatalities have been recorded.

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