What do we know about the agreement between the United States and Iran and what are the big unknowns?

BarcelonaTrump celebrated his 80th birthday with a dantesque spectacle of almost no-rules wrestling, a metaphor for the world he wants. And also with a poisoned gift from Tehran: the announcement of a ceasefire that, if it doesn't derail before being signed on Friday in Geneva, will end more than 100 days of war against Iran. The US president needed to reach an agreement at all costs with a regime he had promised to annihilate and which has resisted the onslaught.

Tehran has survived and has shown the world that it possesses a massive economic disruption weapon: control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's gas and oil traffic passes. Without knowing the details of the agreement and whether it materializes, it is intuited that Iran is extending the list of failures of US wars in the region, after Iraq and Afghanistan. Despite Trump's claims of total victory, the text of the agreement has not been made public, and each side has leaked the points that interest them. In any case, it is not a global agreement, but an extension of the 60-day ceasefire to allow time to negotiate the thorniest issues. Let's review what we know so far, when there are more questions than answers on the table.

Will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, and how?

Trump has assured that Iran has accepted the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz ("Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!", he wrote late on Sunday), but later clarified that the opening would be limited to the "removal of mines". The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, who is acting as a mediator, made no mention of the strait in his announcement and the Iranian state agency Mehr said that the 12-point document being finalized foresees the restoration of passage of ships in accordance with "Iranian provisions".

The United States have insisted that any toll system on maritime transport –like the one Iran has applied de facto– would be unacceptable. European countries and the United Kingdom have welcomed this understanding today, but have been quick to emphasize that the reopening of the strait must be unconditional and with freedom of navigation without restrictions. Despite the uncertainty, markets have reacted with increases and the price of oil has fallen. Despite this optimism, the restoration of fossil fuel production in the Gulf countries will not be immediate: reopening oil and gas facilities is a complex process, and part of the region's infrastructure has been badly damaged by drone attacks. On the other hand, shipping companies and insurers do not yet consider passage through the strait safe and are demanding guarantees that their ships will not be attacked.

Will Israel stop bombing Lebanon?

Weeks ago, Tehran said it would not accept any agreement that did not include an end to attacks against Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy. Since early March, Israeli attacks have left more than 3,000 dead and more than a million displaced. Israel currently occupies a fifth of the territory of southern Lebanon, and its Defense Minister, Israel Katz, has made it clear that his troops will not withdraw. Tehran has insisted that a truce has been accepted "on all fronts, including Lebanon," and Trump has condemned the latest Israeli attacks against Beirut on Sunday, which have been interpreted as a desperate attempt to derail the agreement.

Last week was marked by Trump's public diatribes against Netanyahu. Israeli government and opposition officials have flatly rejected the agreement and invoke their sovereignty. In any case, Israel is not present in the negotiations, and Netanyahu, who must hold elections before the end of October, has domestic reasons to continue fueling the war in Iran and Lebanon. If he decides to attack Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut, he could derail the pact.

What about Iran's nuclear program?

Both Washington and Tehran agree that this point, Trump's justification for attacking Iran on February 28, has been left unresolved. Trump has repeatedly stated that "Iran will never have nuclear weapons," but Pakistan assures that this is one of the points that will be discussed in the next 60 days. Trump himself told the New York Times that if Tehran does not yield on this point, it could suffer a new attack from the US military.

The other major powers of what is known as the E4 group (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy) have shown themselves willing to lift sanctions against Tehran if it takes "clear and verifiable steps on its nuclear program." But Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear program has strictly civilian purposes, has not committed to handing over its enriched uranium, and had already accepted an agreement in 2015 to place it under international supervision that Trump unilaterally broke. The 440 kilograms of material with a purity of 60% – close to military grade, which is 90% – that Iran is believed to have hidden in underground facilities will likely be one of the negotiation topics in future talks.

Regarding the ballistic missile program, which Trump has declared "totally destroyed" on more than one occasion, it would also have been removed from the points of the agreement pending future negotiation.

Will sanctions against Iran be lifted?

The easing of sanctions is also expected to be a subject of the next phase of negotiations. According to Mehr, the draft agreement includes a suspension of restrictions on Iranian oil sales, but there is no mention of financial sanctions affecting Iranian banks.

Another controversial aspect of the agreement has been the release of frozen Iranian assets, which Iran says it needs to pay for reconstruction after American and Israeli bombings across the country. According to Mehr, the draft agreement includes the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, half of which are to be activated before talks begin.

US Vice President J.D. Vance said on Friday that the frozen funds would not be automatically released once an agreement was signed, adding that the economic benefits would be linked to Iran fulfilling its commitments. A potential solution could be the United Arab Emirates, which according to Reuters is considering unblocking billions of dollars linked to Iran that could be frozen Iranian funds in Emirati banks. It would be a solution that would allow both sides to save face: Iran could say it has obtained compensation for damages suffered and Washington that it has paid nothing.