After a four-hour debate, Jovent Republicà, the youth wing of ERC, has decided to endorse Salvador Illa's budgets. The vote of deputy Mar Besses, who represents the organization in Parliament, was essential for the accounts to go through. The national council met this afternoon to decide the direction of their vote and, after a long debate, opted to "preserve the unitary space with Esquerra Republicana" and "maintain the direction of the parliamentary group's vote out of responsibility". However, in a statement, the organization admits that the decision implies "assuming important contradictions" and asks ERC to carry out a "profound review" of the investiture agreement and its compliance.

Gabriel Rufián takes another step. The ERC leader in Madrid, who has become a phenomenon for the Spanish left, has shown himself "willing" this Wednesday to lead a new space for the Spanish elections of 2027. In a conference at the Club Siglo XXI in Madrid, reported by Europa Press, the Republican leader ignores the parties' refusal to join this option and insists on his path: the unity of the left in the upcoming elections. Until now, he had not opened himself to directly heading this eventual new space, which the Esquerra leadership in Barcelona completely rejects.

The State and the Generalitat have signed this Wednesday the agreements with ERC for the Catalan budgets at the Bilateral Commission they held in Madrid, which lasted less than an hour. The Republicans set this condition to have a guarantee of compliance with the pacts that depend on Pedro Sánchez's executive, among which is the creation of an investment company, that is, a company that will be approved by the Council of Ministers during this 2026 and will be participated by both administrations. This company will serve to "provide greater agility, flexibility and operational capacity" for the execution of studies, projects and works linked to infrastructures and other public investments, as the Government explained in a press release. In parallel, however, they are not giving up on the possibility of moving forward with a "State-Generalitat parity consortium for investments" which would depend on the Ministry of Transport. For this to prosper, however, it requires the approval of Congress, where the proposal derailed a few weeks ago due to the opposing vote of Junts.

Conversations had been on track for days, but the Government did not want to formalize an agreement until after the Andalusian elections. Well, it was just the next day when Esquerra officially gave its yes to Salvador Illa's first budget after explaining the pact first to the executive, and then to the national council. Salvador Illa and Oriol Junqueras will sign the agreement this Tuesday at the Palau de la Generalitat. The pact has not been put to a vote, but according to various sources consulted, and the party has "informed" the national councilors of the pact's content.It is in the national council meeting where the voices of the party's critics have been heard. With ERC's yes, the Government only has to finish negotiating with the Commons on the updating of its pact.

Esquerra had agreed on three issues to reach an agreement on Salvador Illa's budgets. On the one hand, the orbital railway line which, as explained by ARA last Monday, socialists and republicans have reached an agreement to materialize it in the next fifteen years. On the other hand, the commercial company that is to oversee state investments has also been agreed upon. And there was a third issue, a transfer that ERC had not yet revealed and that it is finishing closing with the socialists. Well, it concerns the Consorci de la Zona Franca: PSC and Esquerra are finalizing an agreement so that Catalonia will have the majority of the entity, which until now was entirely state-owned, according to what Agencia Efe has reported and ARA has confirmed.

Before talking about the signing of the budget agreement between Illa and Junqueras, this morning we had two bombshell news. The Mossos d'Esquadra have arrested Jonathan Andic, the son of Mango founder Isak Andic, for the death of his father, who died at 71 while hiking in the Salnitre caves. Although initially treated as an accident, a few months ago the Mossos began investigating Andic's son for homicide, who was the only person with whom the businessman was that day. And while we were still processing the news, the political bombshell arrived: Zapatero has been charged with influence peddling, criminal organization, and document forgery in the case of the Plus Ultra airline bailout. The company was bailed out by Sánchez's government during the pandemic with a loan of 53 million euros. Now the National Court is charging Zapatero for having influenced (having received a commission of 10 million, deposited in an account in Panama) this bailout. He has always denied it, and Sánchez has always said the bailout was done correctly. The group that reported Zapatero was the far-right group Manos Limpias. Today, his office was searched, and he will have to appear to testify in 15 days. The first pieces of evidence, which became known this morning when the secrecy of the investigation was lifted, do not seem very solid. He is the first former Spanish president to be charged in Spain (Rajoy has been charged in Andorra). The impact for Sánchez is huge: they are friends, Zapatero supports him - unlike Felipe González -, and if we add to this the result in Andalusia, the funeral in Moncloa continues today. And I would bet anything that within 24 hours someone will remember that Zapatero was negotiating with Puigdemont (like Santos Cerdán). Meanwhile, this morning, at 8 o'clock, President Salvador Illa and Oriol Junqueras were at the Palau de la Generalitat and shook hands again, as a prelude to the photo of the day, that of the signing of the agreement between the Government and Esquerra Republicana by which Junqueras' party will approve the 2026 budgets of Illa's government. These are days of handshakes. Yesterday they already had the first one in Sant Sadurní d'Anoia at the presentation of the orbital train.As always, when a party gives a vote as important as the budget vote to a government, the debate is whether it has settled for little or a lot. Especially since Esquerra is an independentist party and the PSC is not, and it enthusiastically supported 155. Firstly, I think no one should be surprised that Esquerra or Comuns approve accounts for the PSC, because the most important agreement was already made, which is the investiture. If there was any incoherence in ERC's support for the PSC, it was then, not now. I believe that if you vote for someone's investiture, you have an obligation to cooperate with them during the legislature that other parties do not have. Whoever invests is saying they see potential. The fact is that for some time now, we have naturally accepted that, for example, next year there will be no budgets because there are municipal and Spanish elections and, of course, parties cannot support each other. Perhaps this is what is done nowadays, but I find it very selfish on the part of the parties. From this point of view, it is normal for Esquerra to give its vote to the Government. 

The agreement between the Govern and ERC for the 2026 budgets, the first of Salvador Illa's presidency, is now signed. The president and Oriol Junqueras have signed the document in a brief ceremony early this morning at the Palau de la Generalitat, after the Republicans formally gave their yes to the accounts this Monday. The Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, has given all the details in a press conference early this morning and Junqueras will appear later, around half past eleven.

It has gone from being a project shelved since 2010 to becoming the protagonist of the budget negotiations between the PSC and ERC. In ARA we explain what the Orbital Railway Line (LOF) is in seven key points:

Once the Andalusian elections were over, the Government is launching the machinery this week to approve its first budgets. The socialists wanted to let May 17th pass so as not to interfere with the campaign of the former vice-president and former Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, but talks with ERC have been on track for days. The republicans put forward the orbital railway line as a breakthrough after the transfer of personal income tax fell from the demands —at least in the short term— due to the clash with the Spanish government. This Monday, the president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, and the leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, have formalized the agreement in an event in Sant Sadurní d'Anoia.

Today it is Barcelona's turn in the teachers' protests and the strikers have gathered in one of the most visible places in the city, the Sagrada Família. These strikes that teachers are carrying out by regions are multiplying the effect of the sector in struggle and are making the crisis long for the Government.Meanwhile, the Government is preparing for this week, which will be the staging of the budget agreement between the Government, Esquerra and Comuns.While Esquerra is convening the national council today to give the green light to the budgets, President Salvador Illa is going to Sant Sadurní d’Anoia today to present the initiative for the orbital railway line, the result of the agreement between the Government and Esquerra.

Esquerra had agreed on three issues to reach an agreement on Salvador Illa's budgets. On the one hand, the orbital railway line which, as the ARA explained last Monday, socialists and republicans have reached an agreement to materialize it in the next fifteen years. On the other hand, the commercial company that is to oversee state investments has also been agreed upon. And there was a third issue, a transfer that ERC had not yet revealed and is in the process of finalizing with the socialists. Well, it concerns the Consorci de la Zona Franca: PSC and Esquerra are finalizing an agreement so that Catalonia gains a majority in the entity, which until now was entirely state-owned.

Faced with the rise of the far-right indicated by polls, not least the one published by ARA a few weeks ago, the left has been looking for ways to curb what demographics predict for months. And in this debate, it is once again being considered whether the left should form a common front or if it is enough for each party to seek the best strategy separately to contain the rise of Vox and Aliança Catalana. So far, Aliança Catalana has overtaken Junts and the left retains the majority in Catalonia, is the only one who has advocated for a unitary candidacy of the sovereignist left in the State. A proposal that has been rejected by the majority of the formations in this space, including his own party, Esquerra. According to what ARA has been able to learn, however, this Saturday there was a meeting in Cardedeu that brought together Esquerra, Comuns and the CUP, as well as about fifty entities, from Òmnium to unions like UGT and CCOO. In total, about 130 people. The meeting was organized by Comunistes and the Neus Català Foundation with the aim of debating the role that the left should play in the coming months.

Salvador Illa has crossed the Atlantic again, but this time to visit the United States –a few months ago he visited Mexico–. Specifically, the state of California. The objective, according to the Government, is to strengthen ties with the North American technological and audiovisual sector. Illa has visited various companies and signed collaboration agreements with institutions. And while the president was signing these pacts in California, in Catalonia his government was getting the budgets on track with Esquerra, to the point that next week they seem to be definitively approved.

Given the impossibility of advancing in the short term with the transfer of personal income tax (IRPF), Esquerra had to look for another trophy that would allow it to exhibit some influence in Salvador Illa's government. It has ended up choosing the railway 'fourth ring road', the orbital line that the tripartite had begun to plan and which had been stored away since 2010. And once it has the PSC's commitment, the republicans consider that the time has come to approve the Government's budgets. As reported by RAC1 and confirmed by ARA, next Monday the leadership has convened an extraordinary national council at 6:30 p.m. to validate what the negotiating team has achieved and give the go-ahead to the accounts, which the executive will present imminently. The agenda includes an analysis of the political moment and the state of the budgetary negotiation.

For a few weeks now, the Government and Esquerra have been negotiating the budgets that derailed in March with discretion. The two parties decided to give themselves a second chance to try to reach an agreement before the summer holidays and, after multiple meetings and working groups, as the ARA has learned, socialists and republicans in Barcelona and Madridhave unblocked two issues that pave the way for the accounts. If part of the Quart Cinturó (by road) was what unblocked the 2022 budgets of Pere Aragonès' Government, the orbital railway axis, a kind of railway Quart Cinturó, is what seems to be getting Salvador Illa's first accounts on track. It is about the railway network to connect the second metropolitan ring without passing through Barcelona.

That Gabriel Rufián and Sílvia Orriols are the two most popular politicians in Catalonia reflects quite severely the situation of our politics and, by extension, the state of mind, the spiritual state, if you prefer, of the country. I will not dwell on qualifications regarding their methods or discourse, neither the spokesperson for the Esquerra group in Congress nor the mayor – mayoress, she says – of Ripoll. It is enough to remember that they are two populist and polarizing styles. By this I do not mean, in any way, that they are equal or comparable (Rufián does not use Orriols' Islamophobia), but simply that I do not find them to be examples of good politics, nor commendable figures. It is also significant that neither Rufián nor Orriols are national politicians, even though Orriols has a seat in Parliament. The popularity we spoke of they have achieved outside of national politics, understood as that which has Catalonia as its scope and object. Rufián has been in Madrid for ages. Orriols has his epicenter in the city of Ripoll. Where are the national politicians? Well, all of them below Rufián and Orriols, as indicated by the latest poll published by ARA. The President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, occupies third place. And Carles Puigdemont, ninth (second to last). Oriol Junqueras appears in a not-so-bad fourth position. Furthermore, his party, which wins many votes, seems to be recovering from the dismal last electoral cycle. The problem here is another: Rufián is more popular than Junqueras both among the electorate in general and among Republican voters in particular. An insolent question for the leadership of ERC: in view of this, should the party strive to be more like Rufián or vice versa: should Rufián try to be more like the party? Let's add some other element. The capital change that is taking place in Catalonia is the meteoric rise of Aliança Catalana, Orriols' formation. This can change almost everything. One of the consequences of this growth, regarding the combination of forces, is that it will absolutely prevent a new pro-independence government in Catalonia. Whoever still has this dream should let it go. Forget about it for a long time. If it was already very complicated before, it will now become impossible. Neither the PSC, nor the PP, nor Vox will have achieved it. The voters of a party that, what a paradox, calls itself and wants to be more Catalan and more pro-independence than anyone else will have achieved it: Aliança Catalana. As can be seen, the general landscape drawn by the ARA poll – which agrees with other previous opinion studies – is between strange and bleak. And no, it is no consolation that in other places, near or far, they are worse off than us.

It is quite likely that the rise of Aliança Catalana reflected in mea culpa, more than one party and union will assume at least part of the responsibility. The most significant element of the shift we are discussing is, therefore, that a part of the pro-independence electorate has stopped prioritizing the national issue almost exclusively to begin emphasizing the issues listed before: immigration (perceived as excessive), security (repeat criminal offenses, etc.), or the preservation of ways of being and existing (the clothing of some Muslim women, etc.). According to CEO data the number of responses reinforcing the impression that there are more immigrants in Catalonia than actually live there has doubled... in just one year! We are therefore not facing a percentage anecdote, but a real change of direction. These perceptions –not necessarily correlatable with objective data– are the perfect fuel for any political formation that decides to articulate discontent in terms of cultural protection and defense of the territory.

The poll we published in ARA this weekend dared to put numbers on the political reality, which, no matter how much scientific basis the work has, always ends up causing an endless discussion. Especially when there are still more than two years to go until the parliamentary elections, if the Illa government manages to complete the legislature, because the political, economic, and social situation is only getting more tangled.This is the first observation: the growing discontent would not be directed against the PSC, nor against Esquerra or Comuns, who support it, but would take the form of a historic shift of a large part of the country's electorate towards the far-right, curiously not large enough to force a change of government but sufficient to send Junts from second to fifth position.The growth of Alianza Catalana and Vox is more than probable (we'll see if in these proportions), and it's noticeable as soon as you step outside. The protest vote against everything, especially with the extraordinary increase in immigration that Catalonia has experienced, would take the form of the far-right, exactly as happens in all democracies. But the case of Catalonia, with its own political system and the strong influence of the Spanish political system, would present some elements to consider.The idea that ““és català tot aquell que viu i treballa a Catalunya (i ho vol ser)”” has been blown to pieces. A good part of the Catalanist voter doubts the strength that that powerful machine for “fer catalans”, which were the street, the school, the economy, the television, and the income difference with Spain, could now have, which without having its own state yielded extraordinary results. They doubt because countries with their own states like France and the United Kingdom have many problems, and because the mix of an immigrant influx, a digital cultural bubble, religious differences, and the marginalization of Catalan in schools and the legal inferiority of the language seems like a perfect storm for Catalan identity. And however aggressive Aliança Catalana's expressions towards Muslims may be, a sense of urgency prevails. In the case of Vox, the growth factors would be the Spanish nationalist reaction to immigration, to separatism, and to Pedro Sánchez's government, which is dragging on for them. Economic problems for many families, uncertainty for young people, an inaccessible housing market, bleak prospects in the labor market, artificial intelligence... The punishment vote, on the contrary, is served.It is not so strange that Orriols and Rufián are the best-rated politicians. To be rated, you first have to be known, and Rufián's star has not stopped growing, especially in Spain, and from this Spanish circuit, he grows in Catalonia. And Orriols, although less known, is on everyone's lips. However, personal rating and votes do not always go together. History is full of highly rated but poorly voted politicians.Good morning.

It hasn't even been two years since Salvador Illa became president of the Generalitat, and the oasis of tranquility he enjoyed in his first months is beginning to look more and more like a mirage. For a long time now, protests in the streets have been added to the difficulties of governing in minority, with teachers being one of the most demanding groups. The ARA survey, conducted by YouGov, detects some electoral wear and tear for the PSC, but, despite everything, the socialists would consolidate their first position today if the elections were brought forward. There is no forecast of this happening, even though negotiations for the budget with ERC are still open, which adds a point of unpredictability to the calendar. The PSC would obtain between 36 and 42 seats and would see the second party in the Parlament no longer be Junts, the main victim in case of elections, but Esquerra (27-30).

In a country that is doing badly, with a minority Generalitat government and too many open fronts, one might think that Catalan sovereignty has a window of opportunity to regain prominence and raise the level of national ambition. Instead, the parties that led the Procés – Junts and ERC – are competing in their own ring, in a bubble that only interests their leaders, and setting aside national interest, which is what could truly propel them electorally. It is one thing that there is no strategic unity; and another is that the weekly squabbles between Rufián and Nogueras occupy the space and time that their respective parties should dedicate to taking advantage of the weakness of the PSC and the PSOE.This week, Junts has seized media prominence with a double refusal. The first – voting against the housing decree – is difficult to understand in a context of housing emergency, especially considering that the PSOE and Sumar were willing to negotiate fiscal measures for small landlords and self-employed workers. That Puigdemont's party has been so inflexible is explained by temperamental reasons (taking revenge on Yolanda Díaz for her theatrics) and tactical ones (making themselves valuable to the Catalan economic right). It is legitimate for Junts to want to regain the center-right space, but doing so at the cost of tenants' suffering is, at the very least, insensitive. Future elections will tell them if the gamble has been successful or not.It is more incomprehensible that Junts opposes the State-Generalitat investment consortium, a measure agreed upon by ERC with the PSOE to prevent unexecuted investments (systematically and scandalously) by successive Spanish governments from being lost. This can only be explained by absurd maximalism and by the desire not to give any success to adversaries, even if it reduces the Generalitat's resources and decision-making power. Furthermore, the terminology used by Nogueras (“We don't need another little stall”) seems more appropriate for other political options.However: instead of taking advantage of this slip-up to present themselves as the party of useful sovereignty, ERC has preferred, once again, to leave its narrative in the hands of Gabriel Rufián, who has turned it into a very low-tone comedy in the Congress tribune, focusing only on the housing issue (as if the investment consortium issue were too “local” for his audience) and engaging in unnecessary mockery of Junts deputies, which has allowed them to portray themselves as victims. And the Junts circle has upped the ante by comparing Rufián to Albert Rivera, and his discourse, to the logic of "A por ellos". Each episode of this farce is worse than the last. And meanwhile, the ERC leadership remains silent. Rufián gains and loses votes, we don't quite know to what extent, but his one-sided hostility torpedoes one of the party's assets: the ability to maneuver between the PSC and Junts, depending on the area of decision and the circumstances.I have always thought that Junts and ERC are two parties too consolidated for sovereignty to do without them. But a moment comes when it is legitimate to ask whether these kindergarten fights, which have been going on for a decade, are not a major obstacle – not to say the main obstacle – for a sovereignty that, at a social and popular level, shows much more maturity than its political representatives. We could say, as Estanislao Figueras did in 1873, that we are fed up with all of us. If this civil war continues (and it will continue as long as neither party is capable of devouring the other), perhaps one day it will have to be considered. Because parties are just tools, and in any trade, useless tools are either repaired or thrown away.