Why is politics turning to the right?
Experts warn that electoral pressure forces traditional parties to buy into the security and immigration framework created by Vox and Aliança Catalana.
Barcelona"Whoever comes to commit crimes must know they have no place in our society." Read in isolation and without any context, it might currently be difficult to guess which leader or political party this phrase might come from. The reality, however, is that it is an excerpt from the Catalan PP's position paper for its 16th congress just a few days ago. This discursive forcefulness brings an evidence to the table and introduces a lively debate: Spanish politics, as well as Catalan politics, is shifting towards an increasingly radicalized right.
Contacted by ARA, Marc Sanjaume, a professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University, points out that this shift to the right and the rise of populism respond to a global phenomenon. Liberal democracies are experiencing "very strong pressure because their political space is being devoured by these populist, far-right movements," explains the expert. The emergence of this new electoral offering confronts the traditional centre-right with the dilemma of trying to compete with these new options or remaining moderate. Sanjaume highlights that, in Spain, this scenario has arrived late due to particularities such as the presence of regional parties and a strong territorial conflict. "This centre-periphery clash has acted as a shot of oxygen to have an internal enemy that could capitalize on it," explains the political scientist, which "has allowed bipartisanship to maintain order and temporarily curb the far-right".
The PP's strategy
But why do traditional parties end up buying into the far-right's narratives? In conversation with ARA, Marc Guinjoan, professor of political science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, articulates this through spatial models and rational choice theory. In a Spanish system where competition occurs practically on a single left-right axis that encompasses everything (economy, values, and territorial model), the PP acts strategically. "The Popular Party has no competition from the PSOE, because the centrist voter is largely aligned, right now, with the PP, mainly due to the PSOE's numerous corruption cases," highlights the expert. From here, "what the PP does, as many countries and many conservative parties in Europe have done, is to shift its political positioning to the right," the direction from which competition enters.
Guinjoan points out, however, that this might not happen if "the issue were not extremely relevant." That is, "if the issue were not exceptional, the party might not move to the right, because it would have no incentives – states the political scientist – but polls tell us there is an increase in concern about immigration and crime," which causes "the PP to shift." Guinjoan also highlights that this interest is a top-down dynamic in which "Vox has moved this issue very well, it has made it their main issue [...]" Of course, he warns that the PP shifts "up to a not-so-radical point" to avoid the classic premise that "to choose the copy, you choose the original." Sanjaume agrees and recalls that the PP has already tested this adaptation "quite successfully for them at a regional level.
In this whole ecosystem, the left suffers on more polarized terrain. Sanjaume indicates that this turn "forces it to talk about topics that are not its front, such as immigration, security or religions," issues that historically divide it and where it has no consensus. On how the left should react, Guinjoan points out that there is no magic recipe. He gives the example of Denmark, where "the Danish Social Democratic Party has achieved brutal results by buying into the discourse of the Danish People's Party [far-right party] in terms of immigration." In Spain, on the other hand, the expert points out, the PSOE and its partners have opted for an opposite path, adopting a "confrontational perspective," and have taken the opportunity to approve a regularization of immigrants.The Catalan case: Junts and Aliança Catalana
In Catalonia, institutional independence also does not escape these inabilities. Guinjoan argues that "this is the same as Junts has done with Aliança Catalana". Without proposing new clear steps on the national axis and seeing that the far-right can steal votes from them, Junts "moves its discourse towards the issues that concern its voters", as is the case with immigration. Sanjaume remarks that Junts' space faces this competition in conditions "objectively worse than those of a centre-right party from another state", as it is a young party "that has had to rebuild itself from repression and exile".
