July ends as the hottest in history: how will August be?

BarcelonaWe leave behind a month that has become the hottest July in the history of Catalonia, surpassing the Julys of 2022 and 2025. This is indicated by the monthly report from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat) after analyzing data from across the country since 1950. The persistence of three heat episodes during the month, along with an almost generalized lack of precipitation, has led to extraordinary temperature records.

A total of 171 out of the 184 automatic stations of Meteocat spread throughout the territory recorded monthly temperature anomalies of 3 ºC or more this July compared to the reference period 1991-2020, a threshold from which the month is considered very hot. However, in some stations in the Pyrenees and the Pyrenees, these anomalies have reached over 5 ºC. If we look at the two centennial data series, the Fabra Observatory in Barcelona has experienced the hottest July in its 112 years of records, with a temperature anomaly exceeding 4 °C, while the Ebro Observatory has also reached the highest average July temperature value in its entire series, which began in 1905.

Therefore, July has followed the very hot trend of June. In fact, the first half of the meteorological summer – from June 1 to July 15 – was also the hottest since extensive and verified data has been available throughout Catalonia, with heat records across the territory. Nighttime heat is also worth noting, which is proving to be extraordinary. For example, the Can Bruixa station in Barcelona has recorded 26 tropical nights, far exceeding the 21 from the record July of 2006 and equaling the 36 tropical nights recorded throughout the summer of 2025.

Regarding maximums, as of July 31, 2026 is already approaching last year's annual record of 16 days in which at least one station in the Meteocat network recorded a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 40 °C. For example, this year in Lleida, 11 days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 40 °C have already been recorded, surpassing the eight days of all of 2025.

Furthermore, this July has been one of the driest since records began, with unprecedented and record dry spells in various stations across the country since the start of summer. There are places in Ponent where it has not rained for 80 consecutive days or more. Also noteworthy is the area of the Pyrenees and eastern Pre-Pyrenees, an area usually affected by afternoon storms, where some drought records have also been reached, with between 30 and 50 consecutive days without rain in some cases.

However, will this suffocating and dry weather continue into August? The last month of meteorological summer is usually marked by the first signs of change in the weather before autumn, especially during the second half of the month. Afternoon instability increases, and the irregular showers and thunderstorms help to prevent the temperature from soaring as much as in July.

Nevertheless, with global warming and the climate crisis, patterns are changing. A clear example is August last year, when we experienced one of the longest and most intense heatwaves since records began. It lasted eleven days between the beginning and middle of the month. We will see what happens this year.

More heat than expected

“Long-term models continue to indicate that both August and September will be marked by temperatures above the climatic average,” explained Santi Segalà, head of the prediction area of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat), in statements to ARA.

Therefore, we will continue with the warming trend that we have been experiencing for many months, with high temperatures and more heat than usual. In fact, the intense heat episode we are experiencing these days will extend throughout almost the entire first week of August due to the persistence of the North African warm bubble. Everything indicates that we will not breathe easier until mid-month – or rather, towards the second half of the month.

More rain than usual?

Regarding precipitation, forecasts are more optimistic and indicate that we may have slightly more rain than usual in August. "This does not mean it will be an August with continuous rain; for example, this positive precipitation anomaly could be concentrated in just three or four days of heavy downpours and abundant rain, while the rest of the month may be dry," assures Segalà.

In fact, the first week of the month will be dry, with few exceptions. What the maps do suggest is that the risk of rain this August will be directly related to an increase in afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the Pyrenees, Pre-Pyrenees, and the northeastern regions, not so much in the rest of the country. A classic situation for this time of year that would occur rather during the second half of the month.

The good news is that afternoon thunderstorms are associated with the entry of cold air at high altitudes. Therefore, all of this may contribute to temperatures being more restrained, unlike what has happened during the rest of the summer. Forests need water and a respite after so many consecutive weeks of extreme conditions.

A rainy autumn?

Long-term forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they also suggest that September could be particularly rainy, especially on the coast. This would mean that storms could arrive which, upon coming into contact with an extremely warm sea, would leave abundant and intense rainfall in this sector. "The Mediterranean is very warm and is a source of downpours near the sea; it is a typical pattern for the beginning of autumn," notes Segalà.

October and November could have the usual rainfall. Considering that autumn months are among the rainiest in our region, this would mean we could have an autumn with abundant rain and episodes of downpours, with a risk of easterly storms or deeper "danes". In short, more extreme phenomena could occur, especially due to the clash between cold air at high altitudes and the extraordinary heat accumulated in the sea. Rainfall that would compensate for the large rainfall deficit we have been experiencing this summer.