What do the polls for the Spanish elections of November 29 say? The PP maintains the lead, but the PSOE narrows the distance
Consult the winner of each province according to the polls and the hemicycle that may emerge from the elections
BarcelonaThe PP continues to lead in most of the polls for the Spanish general elections on November 29th, and the sum with Vox maintains a probable absolute majority in Congress. However, the latest polls paint a less favorable scenario for the Popular Party than at the beginning of the month: the PSOE has recovered ground in some projections and is drawing closer to Feijóo's, while the fragmentation of the alternative left continues to hinder the options of revalidating a progressive majority.
ARA monitors the polls published by the most relevant polling companies, and you can consult the evolution of their average, both on the map of the 52 provincial constituencies and in the hemicycle that you will find below this paragraph. These tools have been developed with a projection of results based on the trend marked by the polls. Both graphics simulate the probable results according to the polls, and the hemicycle that we offer below indicates how the Congress would end up. These projections, prepared by political scientist Jordi Muñoz, give more weight to the most recent polls and less to the oldest ones.
What each of the main polls indicates
The differences between the polls focus on the magnitude of the PP's lead and, above all, on how it translates into seats. Most private projections place the conservatives as the leading force and attribute an absolute majority to the PP and Vox. But the distance from the PSOE varies considerably: while some polls keep the socialists more than five points ahead, others place them only two points behind the conservatives.
The latest polls also question the idea that the Urda train accident has caused a generalized setback for the PSOE. The 40dB poll for El País and the SER, conducted between November 2 and 4, places the socialists at 29.9%, 1.8 points more than at the end of October. The data does not allow attributing the movement to the accident, but it does show that there is no uniform collapse of the socialists.
The PP leads the private polls
The poll by El País and Cadena SER places the PP at 31.9% of the vote, with 129 seats, and the PSOE at 29.9%, with 119 deputies. Vox would obtain 18% of the votes and 61 seats. The projection draws a relatively narrow distance between the two major parties and an absolute majority for the PP and Vox.
In contrast, the polls by El Mundo and La Razón place the populars more clearly in the lead. El Mundo attributes 31% of the votes and 134 seats to the PP, compared to 25.2% and 103 deputies for the PSOE. La Razón also places the PP at around 33% and the PSOE at 26%. The difference between media outlets prevents speaking of a single electoral scenario, especially regarding the evolution of the socialists after the Urda accident.
The CIS paints an opposite scenario
The October barometer from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) places the PSOE in first position, with 34% of the vote, ahead of the PP, with 22.2%, and Vox, with 17.1%. The snapshot contrasts with the majority of polls published by private media, which place the Popular Party in the lead.
It should be noted, however, that the CIS fieldwork was conducted before the Urda train accident. Therefore, it does not allow for measuring its electoral impact and also does not offer a seat projection comparable to that of private polls.
Vox almost doubles its 2023 seats
The growth of Vox is one of the clearest movements in the polls. In the July 2023 general elections, it obtained 12.4% of the votes and 33 seats. Now, recent polls attribute between 19% and 20% of the votes to it and a representation that approaches 70 deputies.
Sigma Dos places it at 19.3% of the votes; Sociométrica, at 19.1%, and NC Report, also at 19.3%. The seat estimates oscillate between the 63-69 of Sigma Dos, the 64 of Sociométrica, and the 66-68 of NC Report. This growth reinforces the options for a right-wing majority, which in most projections exceeds the 176 seats necessary to govern with an absolute majority.
The fragmentation of the left
The space located to the left of the PSOE reaches the elections fragmented between the Broad Front –the space of Sumar– and Podemos, with territorial agreements that are not identical in all constituencies. This division makes it difficult to translate votes into seats, especially in provinces that distribute fewer deputies.
The polls published by the media attribute to the Broad Front results that oscillate approximately between 5% and 8%, while Podemos is generally situated between 1% and 2%. The estimates, however, are not always directly comparable, because the candidacies and electoral alliances can vary according to the poll.
Catalonia: the PSC in the lead
The second wave of the CEO barometer, published on October 14th, places the PSC in the lead in Catalonia, with between 18 and 19 deputies. ERC would obtain between 10 and 11 seats; the PP, between 6 and 7; Vox, between 5 and 6; Junts, between 4 and 5, and Sumar, between 2 and 3. Podemos would not obtain any.
The fieldwork was carried out between September 1st and October 5th, before the subsequent electoral agreements between ERC and Podemos and the CUP's decision not to run. The projection, therefore, does not incorporate these changes.
Where would Aliança's votes go?
Aliança Catalana will not run in the general elections. A CEO study on the behavior of its voters points out that 23% would choose Junts and 22% Vox in a Spanish election. The data suggests that a portion of voters could vote differently in a general election than in a Parliament election.