The CIS catapults the PSOE and places it almost twelve points above the PP

MadridThe first barometer from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) following the housing protests has catapulted the PSOE, which would position itself as the leading force nearly twelve points ahead of the PP. According to the survey conducted between October 1st and 6th, coinciding with the vote in Congress on the Maricarmen decree and the announcement of a snap election, the socialists would obtain 34% of the votes, while the popular party would fall to 22.2%. Regarding the barometer from a month ago, Pedro Sánchez's party would grow by three points (in September the CIS gave them a voting estimate of 31%), while Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party would retreat by 3.3 points (compared to the 25.5% in the previous survey). Unlike the PP's decline, the CIS forecasts growth for Vox, which goes from 16.6% to 17.1% (half a point more) and reduces the distance with the popular party to just 5.1 points, when in September it was 8.9 points.

In the left-wing bloc, Sumar (now reconverted into the Broad Front) and ERC would also grow, while Podemos would obtain a worse result. The candidacy led by Ada Colau would stand at 6.1% (four tenths more than in September) and Gabriel Rufián's party at 3% (half a point more). This is a survey carried out before the announcement of the collaboration between the republicans and the purple party, who in this barometer stand at 3.1% (six tenths less than a month ago). In this way, the public body presided over by José Félix Tezanos places the sum of the PSOE with the rest of the plurinational majority above that of the PP with Vox. The PSOE and the Broad Front alone would already obtain a higher percentage of the vote (40.1%) than Feijóo and Santiago Abascal's party (39.3%). As for Junts, the candidacy led by Miriam Nogueras would stand at 1.1% of the votes, four tenths more than in September. EH Bildu and the BNG are also on the rise, while the PNV would retreat slightly. These forecasts differ from the rest of the published polls, which place the right and the far-right of the PP and Vox at around 50% of the votes.

Leadership

Regarding leadership, according to the CIS, the preferred candidate to be president of the Spanish government is Sánchez, by a wide margin over Feijóo. The socialist leader would be the preferred option for 25.8% of respondents, while the popular candidate only 9.6%. Not far behind are Abascal, with 9.1%, and Rufián, with 8.1%. These are ratings to which the PP has given no credibility. "The poll just published by the CIS is a new example of the systematic misuse of funds that this government carries out through the institution," criticized popular party sources, who state that if Feijóo ends up governing, he will dismiss Tezanos "immediately." In contrast, the socialists have made an opposite interpretation. The Minister of the Presidency and Justice, Félix Bolaños, defended in an interview on La Sexta that it is an "absolutely respectable" poll and that since the election call, the PSOE "is on the rise."

This barometer, which marks a difference of 11.8 points between the two main parties, establishes the widest gap between the PSOE and the PP since April. Last month it was only 5.5, that is, less than half of what it is now. In fact, 22.2% for the popular party is its worst figure of the last year. A month ago, when the public debate was marked by the migration crisis in Ceuta, the trend pointed to by the CIS was a reduction in support for a PSOE that, nevertheless, was resisting, and a slight growth for the PP. Since then, the political debate has shifted to the housing problem in a framework that favors the left with a wave of street protests following the eviction on September 23 of Maricarmen Abascal, an 87-year-old Madrid resident who passed away last week.

The controversy over the CIS is not only political, but demoscopy experts have long warned of the existence of a bias in the public body's barometers. The ratings of the leaders, for example, are one of the elements that generate suspicion due to the fact that Sánchez is the one who obtains the best score (a 4.42) followed by Yolanda Díaz (4.22), a point away from Feijóo (3.43) and even further from Abascal (2.89).

Housing measures

The CIS has asked directly about the housing decrees that were approved by the Spanish government and which were struck down by the PP, Vox, and Junts in Congress on Friday, October 2nd. In general, the survey shows majority support for the exceptional measures in this area. 64.9% of respondents are in favor of the ban on evictions for vulnerable families and 58.6% in favor of the two-year extension of rental contracts. Indefinite rentals are the only measure that receives more opinions against, with 52.1% compared to 43% in favor. In a pre-campaign marked by this affair, more than half of the respondents also claim to have followed the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal in great detail, and housing remains the main concern of the citizenry for another month.

With a percentage of 55.7%, housing is, with more than thirty points of difference over the second, the number one problem in Spain, according to the survey. It is followed by immigration (20.9%) and the economic crisis (20.3%). In relation to housing, 82.3% of respondents maintain that housing policy should be treated as "a constitutional right," while only 11.5% defend doing so as if it were a "market good."