What could the PP and Vox do if they control the Congress and the Senate?

BarcelonaIn the eyes of the majority of the population, the Senate may seem like a representative chamber with little utility in the day-to-day of parliamentary politics. However, the electoral call has shown that it is a contested terrain because it can become a counterweight capable of pressuring or obstructing the action of the Spanish government, just as the People's Party has done from the opposition over the last few years. But, depending on the majorities that emerge from November 29, the right could even aspire to make deeper changes: even to the Constitution.

Thanks to their absolute majority in the upper house, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party was able to delay the approval of the amnesty law in the Senate and return the text to Congress. They also revoked the amendment that intended to eliminate the spending ceiling, a fact that hindered compliance with budgetary stability objectives. Likewise, the Popular Party members promoted several investigative commissions that put socialist leaders and investiture partners in the crosshairs.

The PP and Vox aspire to improve their results and further expand their power in the Senate during the next legislature. They know that there is a lot at stake and are negotiating the possibility of having only one right-wing list in some constituencies to maximize the efficiency of the vote in a majority model like that of the upper house. What would happen if the PP and Vox control both the Congress and the Senate starting on November 29?

An uncomfortable, yet insufficient, absolute majority

With an absolute majority in Congress, the alliance between the PP and Vox could invest a president of the state executive, without other uncomfortable partners. It could also pass ordinary and organic laws, regardless of the color the Senate ends up taking. If the right-wing parties achieve an absolute majority in both chambers, they would live more calmly—especially because they would leave the opposition without tools for delay or even media exposure and control—but an absolute majority would not be enough to unblock the appointments linked to the State's institutions: the renewal of four Constitutional Court magistrates is pending, for which an agreement of three-fifths of the Senate, 161 senators, is required.

With an absolute majority in the Senate—and control of the Spanish government—the state right-wing parties could indeed intervene in the autonomous regions in case of disobedience, for example, by applying Article 155 of the Constitution, as the PP did—then with the support of the PSOE—in 2017 in Catalonia.

The reinforced majority: 3/5 parts

It is a scenario that, for now, most polls do not foresee, but if the PP and Vox were to achieve a three-fifths majority in both chambers –210 deputies and 161 senators, respectively–, they would have the capacity to sway key institutional appointments and also to promote certain constitutional reform processes. The most urgent issue is in the Senate, where the renewal of four magistrates (two conservative and two progressive) is blocked: with 161 senators, the right-wing parties could appoint all four and turn the majority around: conservatives and progressives would tie at seven.

With the 210 deputies in Congress, they would also have a clear path to appoint four more magistrates in 2028, and would leave a clear conservative majority from then on in the Constitutional Court. Furthermore, the General Council of the Judiciary would have to be renewed again in 2029, and the right would have enough of a majority to avoid any type of blockade by the opposition and to consolidate a broad majority among the twenty members of the judges' governing body.

At the Court of Audit a similar scheme is repeated: Congress elects six councillors and the Senate, six more, with the requirement of a three-fifths majority in each chamber. And regarding the Ombudsman, they are elected by the General Courts through a procedure that requires reinforced majorities in Congress and the Senate. The designation requires, in the first place, a three-fifths majority in Congress and, subsequently, the ratification of the Senate by the same majority (or by an absolute majority if the first vote fails).

But with three-fifths of both chambers, the PP and Vox could even decide to introduce relevant changes to the Constitution. Even eliminating the reference to the right to decent housing. They would only have the preliminary title (which speaks of the form of State), the one that provides for rights and freedoms, and that of the Crown vetoed, which require two-thirds and a referendum obligatorily.

Power to change the Constitution

The great majority to do and undo arrives with two-thirds of the chambers, that is to say 234 deputies and 178 senators. This majority, which does not seem within reach of the right-wing parties and which historically only the PP and PSOE have achieved together –although they have not exercised it– would grant them the capacity to promote a complete constitutional reform, provided for in article 168 of the Magna Carta.

Eliminating the autonomies or ending the official status of Catalan, for example, are common demands of Vox that would only be achieved in this case with a two-thirds majority in Congress and the Senate. It would be necessary, however, subsequently, to dissolve the General Courts, hold new elections, and ratify the reform by a two-thirds majority of the deputies and senators of the next legislature. Finally, the reform would have to be submitted to a referendum for the Spanish citizenry to ratify it.

With a two-thirds majority in both chambers, the PP and Vox would also have a decisive position in the election of the members of the Board of Directors of RTVE. Since the 2024 reform, Congress elects eleven of the fifteen board members and the Senate, the remaining four. In certain circumstances, if the necessary majority is not reached in the first vote, a second vote can be resorted to in which an absolute majority is sufficient. For the rest of the institutional appointments, some of which may have a more direct impact on the balance between the powers of the State, a three-fifths majority is required.