Vox or the Catalan Alliance: Who can grow more?

BarcelonaThis week, the CEO Barometer has left several headlines on electoral trends in Catalonia: a rise of the Catalan Alliance, which was already coming from the previous wave; a stagnation of the PSC after years of rise, and above all the growth that Vox can opt for.

Santiago Abascal's party, represented by Ignacio Garriga in the Parliament, would already be hot on the heels of the PP as the fourth force. If in the last elections in 2024 it obtained 11 deputies, remaining with more or less the same support, now the CEO predicts an increase in both the elections to the Parliament (with an increase of up to 14) and in Congress in Catalonia, from 2 to 4-5, more or less tied with the PP (5-6). However, its potential growth is even more evident if the data is analyzed by age group. If the CEO's overall ranking is PSC, Junts, ERC, PP, Vox, Alianza, Comunes, and CUP, among the youngest, Abascal's party rises to third place, behind the PSC and Esquerra.

In fact, among those under 25, Vox is practically tied with the Socialists and the Republicans. And this ranking holds up to those under 50—albeit with the far right at a greater distance. This gives it more potential for growth because, for the moment, unlike the PP, which is strongest among those aged 50 to 65 and is its main competitor, it is managing to penetrate a pool of voters who, if the trend continues, will gain ground in the future. This electoral performance is not unlike that of the rest of Spain.

As for the other far right in the Parliament, Aliança Catalana, its growth pattern is different from that of Vox. Silvia Orriols's party isn't characterized by growing among young voters, but rather has a more or less equal penetration across all age groups. One difference compared to other far-right parties, which draw on a predominantly young vote. The other is their ideological self-identification. While Vox's party places itself at 7 on a scale from 0 to 10 (with 0 being the far left and 10 the far right), Aliança's party defines itself at 5.5. In other words, Silvia Orriols's voters define themselves as much less right-wing than Vox's, despite the fact that in Parliament, Aliança shares many proposals with Santiago Abascal's party and often simply requests that they be translated into Catalan.

What is already a reality, however, is that votes are shifting between the two extreme right-wing parties—the pro-Spanish and pro-independence parties—which means their voters' priority is not the national issue but rather migration. Some Aliança voters already say they would opt for Vox in a Spanish election. Given this, we'll see if Sílvia Orriols maintains that they will not run in the Congress of Deputies.

A week before the Senate kicks off the commission of inquiry into the power outage, senators had a déjà vu April 28th. The power went out for a few minutes, and to ironically deflect, its president, Pedro Rollán, said: "It's for efficiency, ladies and gentlemen." Alicia García (PP) followed suit: "Working in private is an interesting development."

Former President Jordi Pujol continues his public activities in the summer. On July 10, he was the protagonist of a multitudinous dinner in Maresme with Junts mayors. Last year, at this meeting, Jordi Turull invited him to become a militant. Pujol said yes at the time, but a year later, he still hasn't taken the step. This time, the secretary general of Junts didn't attend.