The Alliance is growing and Vox is almost catching up with the PP in Catalonia, according to the CEO.

BarcelonaThe far right continues to grow in Catalonia, both the pro-Spanish and pro-independence sides. On the one hand, the Catalan Alliance is expected to increase its support, according to the latest poll by the Generalitat's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) from this second quarter, rising to between 10 and 11 seats compared to the two it currently holds in the Parliament. On the other hand, Vox is also expected to have more electoral support in Catalonia, to the point that it could overtake the PP. In any case, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would still win the Parliament elections, followed by Junts and Esquerra.

According to CEO predictions, the PP and Vox would vie for the fourth largest party in the Catalan Parliament. The Spanish far-right is positioned between 12 and 14 seats in the CEO's seat projection (it currently has 11); the Popular Party (PP) is positioned between 14 and 15 seats (it currently has 15). "In the best-case scenario for Vox and the worst-case scenario for the PP, Vox could overtake the PP in seats," CEO director Joan Rodríguez Teruel stated in a press conference on Wednesday. According to the CEO, Alianza would rise to fifth place, with Comuns (the People's Party) remaining at the bottom, holding between 5 and 6 seats (it currently has 6), and the CUP (the People's Party) could lose one of its current 4 seats or remain unchanged.

In terms of governability, it would add up to the current absolute majority of the left (PSC, ERC, and Comunes) at the high end of the fork (71); The PSC, PP, and Vox would also continue to add up, as if they were counting on their best forecast (71 seats); while the majority of the pro-independence parties would also do so (68). However, in the first case, the PSC has so far refused to add up with Vox, while the pro-independence parties also veto Aliança Catalana. So these would be two non-operational government options. PSC and Junts would also have enough support to govern (72), but for the moment this alliance is not on the table.

The PSC stagnates and Junts continues to decline

The PSC would finish first, but without gaining support, or could even lose it compared to last year's elections, leaving it with between 40 and 42 seats. It now has 42 in the Catalan Parliament. "There would be a certain negative impact from the political context," said CEO director Joan Rodríguez Teruel. Where would these voters go? They would shift to indecision, so no party would clearly benefit from the PSC's slight loss of support. The detected transfers, Teruel said, are less than 4% and would go to Esquerra and Junts, and less to the PP and Vox.

In any case, Teruel emphasized that the Catalan government, led by Salvador Illa, maintains a good rating among Catalans, with an average of 6.2. It is approved among PSC, Esquerra, and Comuns voters, and also in the opposition, among Junts and PP voters. Only Alianza and the CUP have suspended him.

This CEO survey was conducted from May 30 to June 28, amid the outbreak of the Cerdán case crisis. "The support of the Spanish government and Pedro Sánchez is eroding," Teruel stated, and to a lesser extent it affects the ratings of the president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, although he clarified that the effect is lower in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain. However, he also made it clear that the "main political effect of the Cerdán case is in the competition between the PP and Vox": according to the CEO director, the outbreak of the case of the former number three of the PSOE has generated more movements on the right, to the benefit of the extremists and to the detriment of the PP.

Meanwhile, Junts, which came in second place in the elections with 35 deputies, would maintain the downward trend according to the CEO, but without falling positions. Carles Puigdemont's party would remain the second-largest party in the Parliament with between 28 and 30 seats. Esquerra (Republican Left) would remain at between 21 and 23 seats (it currently has 20), thus remaining the third-largest party in the chamber.

Where are Vox and Alianza growing?

The growth of the far right is at the expense of Junts, in the case of Aliança, and to the detriment of the PP, in the case of Vox. However, with a different pattern.

Ignacio Garriga's party is growing stronger where the PP is weak in Catalonia. By age group and voting intention, among those under 50, Vox is now the third-largest party in Catalonia behind the PSC and Esquerra, Teruel explained, adding that among those under 25, the Spanish far right is almost tied with the PSC and Esquerra. This means, the CEO director clarified, that Vox is replacing the PP in places where the PP is weak.

In contrast, the growth pattern of Aliança is different: it increases where Junts is consolidated. On this point, according to Teruel, the Junts members retain their support better among voters who consider themselves center-left than those who consider themselves right-wing, who tend to view Sílvia Orriols's party more favorably. In other words, the CEO director has pointed out that Junts voters who consider themselves center-right are more likely to switch their votes than those on the center-left. In his opinion, this has to do with the fact that Junts has emphasized left-wing policies more than right-wing ones since its inception, unlike CiU. A trend that is, in fact, changing recently: Junts has incorporated a more ideological profile into its discourse with proposals on security, immigration, and lower taxes.

What Teruel doesn't detect in this CEO is a direct transfer of votes between Esquerra and Aliança, which is why the Republicans are holding onto their twenty deputies, he said. "This doesn't mean there isn't a way forward," he cautioned, however, noting that a considerable percentage of Esquerra voters positively value Sílvia Orriols's leadership. "There may be transfers in the future, but we don't see them now."

Transfers between the far right

One of the CEO's new developments is also the potential voter traffic between Aliança Catalana and Vox depending on the elections. Teruel cited the Spanish elections, where Alianza initially would not run. He noted that Silvia Orriols's party attracts non-independence voters, so these voters are likely to vote for Santiago Abascal's party in the Congress of Deputies elections. "Aliança's electorate is plural," Teruel said, speaking on the national axis, because a very important element of its support is concern about immigration.

Regarding the elections to the Congress of Deputies, support would remain the same for the PSC, which would maintain between 18 and 19 seats (it obtained 19 in 2023); the Left between 7 and 8 (it currently has 7); and Junts between 6 and 7 (it had 7 in 2023). There would be changes in Sumar's support, which would go from the 7 seats obtained by the Commons to 3 or 4; while Vox would rise from 2 to between 4 and 5 seats, and the PP would remain between 5 and 6 (it had 6 in Catalonia in 2023). Podemos, which in the previous elections ran with Sumar, could obtain a deputy for Catalonia.

And, in general terms, what is the room for growth for far-right parties? Teruel has provided a relevant figure: one in four respondents has a "high tolerance" for far-right parties. What's more, 43% think that the media and other politicians present far-right parties in a "distorted" way; and 24% do not believe that these parties threaten basic consensus. To the point that 19% say they might consider voting for the far right due to disappointment with traditional parties, a trend that is increasing among younger voters. However, Teruel has clarified that these percentages do not mean these citizens will become far-right voters in the next elections.