Two years of Illa: how will the second part of the legislature be?

BarcelonaOn August 8, exactly two years ago, the investiture of Salvador Illa hung by a thread. That day, all eyes were on Carles Puigdemont. The former president's return ended up being fleeting and marked a day that culminated with the PSC leader being designated as the new president of the Generalitat thanks to the votes of ERC and Comuns. Since then, Illa has wanted to establish his Government as the one that has "turned the page" on the Process. The one that has put housing at the center of its priorities and also the one that has agreed with ERC and the Spanish government on a new financing system for Catalonia. However, Illa is also the president with the deepest educational crisis in recent years and the one who has had to face the chronic chaos of Rodalies. Past the halfway point, the socialist government faces the second part of the legislature with the first – and perhaps the only – budgets secured. It is the guarantee of stability that Illa was looking for to reach the end of the term – although the socialists do not rule out presenting those for 2027–. However, the Government still has assignments to resolve before reaching the end of a legislature that will also have external variables that will fully impact it, such as the next municipal and general elections, or the possible return of Carles Puigdemont.

Illa will not have to wait long to face the first hot potato of the next political year. On September 8, the day schools reopen their doors, teachers have called another strike. The school year will begin as it ended, with education professionals revolting against the Government and demanding an extension of the agreement they signed in June to begin improving their working conditions. However, in the educational sphere, it is raining on the wet, because to the teachers' discontent is now added the fiasco of the PISA tests, which stems from an error by the Department of Education. A mess that adds to that of a year ago with the incidents in the awarding of teaching positions, which ended with the dismissal of the deputy director general of Staff, Provisions and Payroll, Enric Trens. Teachers are not the only ones who have revolted against the Government, but in recent months doctors have also done so, who do not rule out calling more strikes.

In addition to trying to quell the crises in two basic social sectors, Illa will also have to materialize the housing announcements he has made in recent months. To begin with, he will have to amend the law against speculative buying that he had agreed upon with the commons after the Council of Statutory Guarantees warned him that it violates some rights such as the right to property. The Minister of Territory, Sílvia Paneque, already announced this week that they will make changes so that the law can pass the filter of the Constitutional Court if any of the opposition parties appeal it – the PP has already announced that it will. And in the area of mobility, Rodalies will continue to be the executive's headache while it tries to launch the new mixed company that will manage the service and materialize the transfer of the first line of the network: the R1.

The new funding

But beyond the executive action, the Government will also have to defend the regional financing proposal agreed with ERC before the other regional councilors. It will be on September 4, when the Council of Fiscal and Financial Policy (CPFF) will be held, which was suspended in July due to the threat of the PP communities to boycott the meeting.was suspended in July due to the threat of the PP communities to boycott the meeting. It will be the antechamber to the debate that Congress will have to host in the fall. For now, the proposal does not have guaranteed support because Junts opposes it. This very Friday, the Minister of the Presidency, Albert Dalmau, was once again pressuring them to change their position and, in statements to the ACN, invited them to "contribute to the country" and not "block everything". The president of the PSC in Parliament, Ferran Pedret, joined him, urging them not to fall into "self-sabotage".

"Spain does the sabotage to us day in and day out," replied the leader of Junts in Parliament, Mònica Sales. In fact, the Junts members are not budging and continue to extend their hand to the socialists – and also to ERC – to form a "common front" to defend the economic agreement in Madrid. The rejection of the financing proposal is added to the opposition that the party maintains against the Illa Government. This Friday, in a press conference from Parc de la Ciutadella, Sales attacked the last two years of the socialist executive: she accused Illa of having "ruined" Catalonia and of having an attitude of "submission" to the PSOE.

The possible return of Puigdemont

Beyond regional financing, the possible return of Carles Puigdemont is the other variable that could directly impact the Catalan legislature. "His return alters all politics," stated Sales this Friday, who once again demanded the application of the amnesty law after the ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). However, for now there is no date for this return, and it is also unknown what role the former president would play once he landed in Catalonia.

His return would not only shake the Catalan legislature but also the rest of the State. Pedro Sánchez's government – besieged by judicial cases affecting Sánchez's circle and with its governability weakened – has less than a year left in its term and, therefore, the general elections – whether they are brought forward or not – will find Illa still at the Palau de la Generalitat. But not only that, but also next May, municipal elections will be held. Two events that, more or less directly, will also impact Illa's electoral prospects for 2028, and will force changes in the executive. Although the president continues to publicly deny another government crisis – after the replacement of the Minister of Social Rights, Mònica Martínez Bravo, by Raül Moreno–, it is an open secret that Sílvia Paneque will leave the executive to be the PSC candidate in Girona.

Will it be the only change? The Minister of Health, Olga Pané, has also been mentioned in the speculation, who this August should gradually return to her post after several months of leave following a fractured fibula. Be that as it may, with the legislature's midpoint passed, Illa is now playing to stay at the Palau de la Generalitat with several open crises and at a time when the far-right, both from Aliança Catalana and Vox, continues to grow in the polls.