Third electoral exam in the State: the campaign begins in Castile and León

MadridThird regional election in less than three months. Castilla y León takes over from Extremadura, and for the next two weeks, Aragón becomes the battlefield for the main parties in the State. Pedro Sánchez, Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal will be tested again on March 15 in elections that once again have a marked state-level significance. The recent decision by the PP's leadership to get directly involved in the negotiations with Vox to secure the investiture of candidates – María Guardiola and Jorge Azcón – in the two communities that have preceded it, certifies that the state leaders are risking much more than a territorial government in the race towards the general elections scheduled for 2027. For now, polls broadly depict a scenario very similar to Extremadura and Aragón.

The pre-election barometer from the Sociological Research Centre (CIS) predicts a PP victory, between 28 and 38 seats, still far from the absolute majority which stands at 42. In the previous elections, in 2022, the popular candidate Alfonso Fernández Mañueco obtained 31. He could, therefore, slightly improve his results, although he would remain tied to Vox. Feijóo's team is already convinced that their destiny is linked to the far-right and, on the eve of the election campaign that began this Friday, has opted to centralize negotiations with Abascal's party, whereas until now it had always left it to the regions. Mañueco, in fact, was the first to close a government agreement with Vox, four years ago, when Feijóo had not yet taken the reins of the party.

For now, Abascal has rejected the popular party's conditions, and the still fruitless negotiations mark the uncertain start of the campaign. Next Tuesday, election events will coincide with the vote on the first investiture attempt for Guardiola in Extremadura – likely to fail – and with the constitution of the Aragonese Courts. This scenario of blockage on the right fuels optimism in a PSOE that faces these elections with better prospects than in Extremadura or Aragón.

The figure of Mañueco, who has been governing for seven years, carries more wear and tear than that of Guardiola or Azcón and, moreover, bears the burden of the management of the fires in Castilla y León this summer, which led to him being questioned politically and in court –the Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation against him–. Although no poll indicates the Socialists as winners, their candidate, Carlos Martínez, calls on the PP to commit to ensuring that the most voted list will govern, thus showing the apparent conviction that it could be the PSOE's. At the start of the campaign, with the presence of Pedro Sánchez, the messages have focused on warning against the "trampling and regressions" that could result from allowing the right and far-right to govern.

Before Vox left the government in the summer of 2024, acontroversial anti-abortion protocol was precisely proposed in Castilla y León, which the Spanish Prime Minister is now using in the campaign as an example of regressive policies. Unlike Aragón, where a former minister ran, Martínez is not a Sánchez loyalist; rather, his rise is linked to municipalism. He has been the mayor of Soria since 2007 and still governs there with an absolute majority. The CIS places him very close to the PP in terms of vote percentage and gives him almost the same number of seats as in 2022, when he obtained 28, with an estimate of between 26 and 35.

Internal disputes within Vox

Vox has once again proposed a personalized election campaign, the weight of which falls mainly on Abascal. This approach has worked for them in Extremadura and Aragón, where they have doubled their results. According to the CIS, in Castilla y León they could also improve their representation, with between 11 and 19 seats compared to the 13 they obtained four years ago. However, in this territory they already started from having obtained 17% of the votes, and from this base, the increase of the far-right could be less pronounced. "We are sure that, like in Extremadura and Aragón, we will achieve much more Vox," proclaimed the official candidate Carlos Pollán at the start of the campaign. The internal disputes within the far-right party loom over this, with the latest scandal in Murcia and the recent controversy with Javier Ortega Smith.

Precisely in Castilla y León, two of Vox's thirteen deputies, critical of the leadership, were expelled from the parliamentary group. Shortly after, its leader, Juan García-Gallardo, who is at odds with Abascal, resigned and has taken advantage of the latest internal dissensions to reproach the Vox leader that "he is bothered by all those who have personality and their own profile".

The left, separately

Unlike Extremadura, where a single candidacy to the left of the PSOE ran, in Castilla y León there has been no agreement between Podemos and the coalition formed by United Left, Movimiento Sumar, and Equo Verdes. The CIS leaves the purple party, which had one deputy this legislature, outside the Courts, while it sees options for the other candidacy to obtain up to four seats. Amidst the debate about the unity of this political space and with the recent announcement of Yolanda Díaz's resignation, a poor result for Podemos would add pressure on Ione Belarra's party to unite with the rest of the parties that have already confirmed they will go together. On the other hand, the regionalist parties Unión del Pueblo Leonés (UPL), Por Ávila, and Soria ¡Ya! would have options to regain representation.