The withdrawal of embassy staff from Israel and Iran fuels bad omens

BarcelonaThe threat of war in Iran has not disappeared, despite the seemingly reassuring messages Sent on Thursday from Geneva, where the United States and Iran held a third round of indirect negotiations to try to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. Hours later, the US embassy in Israel authorized the departure of non-essential personnel, citing "security risks," and sent an email warning them that if they wished to leave, "they should do so today." In addition, the United Kingdom evacuated all staff from its embassy in Tehran, and China also called on its citizens to leave Iran.

All these developments come the day after negotiations that ended with "significant progress," according to the foreign minister of Oman, which is acting as mediator. Iran also sent an optimistic message, which seemed to diminish the possibility of Donald Trump ordering a military attack. However, the United States has remained silent and has not made any public assessment of the meeting in the Swiss capital. And the only signal that has emerged—an urgent message for its citizens to leave Israel—does not bode well.

The US embassy has advised citizens wishing to leave Israel to purchase a flight "to any destination." "Focus on securing a seat anywhere and then continue your journey home, but the priority is to leave the country quickly," the email stated, according to reports. New York TimesThe measure was taken after overnight meetings and calls, according to an email from US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and is the result of "great concern" and discussions with the State Department in which officials agreed that the safety of embassy personnel was at risk. Last Thursday, the US president increased pressure on the Iranian regime, giving it ten to fifteen days to accept a deal. Otherwise, he warned, "very bad things" would happen—a threat accompanied by an unprecedented military deployment in the region, the largest in the last thirty years since the Iraq War. This Friday, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest US aircraft carrier, arrived in Haifa, in northern Israel. And in recent days, the Pentagon has also sent a dozen F-22 fighter jets to Israel.

This Friday, before boarding a plane to Texas, Trump reiterated that he does not want to use military force, but added: "Sometimes, you have to." He said he is not "happy" with Iran, but that there would be "further talks" later that Friday, without providing further details.

Amid sustained tension in the region, the United Kingdom has decided to withdraw all its personnel from Iran for security reasons, according to the Foreign Office, which also advises Britons against traveling to the country. It states that there is "an intensified risk of regional tension" that could result in "travel disruptions and other unforeseen impacts," and argues that the government's ability to assist its nationals has become "extremely limited," as the embassy is working remotely only, with no staff members on the ground.

For its part, the Chinese embassy in Tehran has urged its citizens to reinforce security measures and leave the country as soon as possible, and has offered them assistance in relocating on commercial flights or overland routes. The US does not have an embassy in Tehran. But in previous days it had already withdrawn its non-essential personnel from Lebanon, although it maintains them in nearby countries such as Iraq and Kuwait.

Rubio's trip to Israel

One element that brings some reassurance to the situation is the White House announcement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Israel next Monday to discuss the situation in Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to the statement, they will also address other regional priorities for Washington, such as Lebanon and the peace plan for Gaza championed by Trump. In recent days, Trump has stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution, but has also made it clear that he will not hesitate to use force if he deems it necessary. Washington insists that Iran must completely halt its uranium enrichment program and limit the range of its missiles, while Tehran maintains that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes and asserts that it is not seeking to develop a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains that Iran has not provided it with access to or information about its nuclear program since June of last year, when Israel and the US attacked the facilities. Thus, the agency "cannot verify the status of the atomic facilities or the associated nuclear material." The agency estimates that Iran had 440 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60%, very close to what is needed to manufacture a dozen nuclear bombs.

Some of Iran's most enriched uranium was stored in an underground area of ​​its nuclear complex in Isfahan, according to the report accessed by media outlets such as Reuters and EFE. The entrance to the tunnel complex was hit in US and Israeli military strikes in June, but the facility appears largely undamaged, according to the agency.

According to the New York TimesAccording to a report citing four Iranian officials, Iran has offered a suspension of nuclear activity and uranium enrichment for three to five years, while maintaining a very low enrichment level of 1.5% for medical research. Following this, the country would join a regional nuclear consortium. It would also offer to dilute its stockpile of 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, while allowing UN nuclear inspectors access to monitor all steps and ensure compliance. IAEA Director Rafael Grossi met with Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad at El Busaidi in Geneva on Thursday before negotiations began. Delegations from Iran and the United States are scheduled to meet again in Vienna next week to try to make progress toward an agreement that would avert war.