The useful vote would propel the PSC to a broad victory on 23-J in Catalonia

BarcelonaEither Pedro Sánchez with Yolanda Díaz or Alberto Núñez Feijóo with Santiago Abascal. This is the choice that the two main state blocs offer for July 23, and it seems that in Catalonia voters have a clear idea of who to lean towards. The PSC, with Meritxell Batet at the helm, would broadly win the elections and could climb to 16-18 seats, doubling the results of whoever ends up in second place. It would be the first socialist victory in general elections in Catalonia since 2008 when Carme Chacón achieved the party's best historical results with 25 deputies. In any case, the socialist victory in the Principality could end up being bitter if the PP dominates the State as a whole. The latest poll published, by the CIS, assures that nothing has been decided yet, although most polls place the Popular Party well above the Socialists. The CEO also detects a greater predisposition to participate than on other occasions in the general elections, which could reduce abstention in these elections.

ERC and Junts are best placed to aim for second position, according to the Barometer of the Center for Opinion (CEO). The Republicans, who would drop from the 13 deputies in 2019 with which they achieved victory, could now aim for 8-10, and the Junts aspire to a maximum of 9. The equality between the two parties contrasts with the results of the general elections in both Spanish elections of 2019 and those of 2016 and 2015, when ERC was clearly ahead. Surpassing ERC would be a breath of fresh air for Junts, for whom polls have not been favorable since 2021.

The PSC would capitalize on the useful vote by taking 16% of the voters of the commons in 2019; 13% of Junts; 12% of ERC and PP; and even 8% of Vox voters. But where it makes a difference is especially among the dual voter, one who changes party between Catalan and Spanish elections. 15% of ERC voters in Parliament would prefer the PSC for Congress, as would 13% of those who voted for the commons and 7% of Junts (plus 27% of Cs, who are not running on 23-J). "It is here where the explanation of the results lies," commented the director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, who points out that the situation in 2019, when ERC came out ahead of the PSC, "was perhaps exceptional." Once Pedro Sánchez called the elections, the socialist prospects automatically soared in Catalonia.

But the socialists would not be the only ones to benefit from the useful vote, and if the PSC would condition Sumar's chances of success, the PP would do the same with Vox's: it would take 20% of the far-right voters in the general elections of four years ago and would also convince 46% of those who voted for Ciutadans in the last Catalan elections. The PP would grow to 6-8 seats (it had 2) and would be the fourth force, surpassing the great disappointment of the elections if the CEO's forecasts are confirmed: Sumar would only obtain between 2 and 4 seats. Although Yolanda Díaz's project, with Aina Vidal at the helm, would convince 14% of the CUP voters, their expectations are plummeting with a PSC that capitalizes the vote to stop a PP-Vox government. The controversies surrounding Irene Montero would not have benefited them either, although the party has been recovering in the last days of the survey's fieldwork.

The far-right would achieve representation in Congress, but would not grow and would maintain 2 deputies or could get 3, and although it does not lose the options to repeat in Congress for the second consecutive legislature, the CUP will have it complicated: the CEO predicts between 0 and 2 seats for it. The PDECat, which runs under the EspaiCiU banner, would not reach the minimum percentage of votes to enter the distribution of seats.

PSC and ERC, neck and neck in the Catalan elections

Who knows the name of the President of the Generalitat?Junts would be the third force, with 25-30, and the PP would consolidate the fourth position that the last Barometer already gave it, with a result of between 13 and 17 seats. The ranges are very wide, but if it were to be in the upper range, the popular party would approach its best results in Catalan elections: in 2012, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho obtained 19 seats in the Catalan chamber.

that this very Wednesday saw it lose European immunity

Who knows the name of the president of the Generalitat?

Regarding political leaders, the President of the Government, Pere Aragonès, equals his party leader, Oriol Junqueras, in the list of the best-rated. Both score a 4.8. In Aragonès's case, 85% claim to know him, but this contrasts with another question in the survey. "Do you know the name of the President of the Generalitat?" Only 45% of Catalans get his name right – a year ago, the figure was even more dramatic, with only 41% knowing it.

Although he is no longer on the lists of the commons, Jaume Asens also receives an average rating of 4.8 from citizens (only 43% know him) and Salvador Illa is fourth with a 4.5. The head of the opposition has even more trouble than the president getting people to know his name: only 20% know his name, although 81% say they know him when told who he is.

Next, Jéssica Albiach, of the commons, with a 4.4; Eulàlia Reguant (CUP), also with a 4.4; and the Minister of Culture and Sports, Miquel Iceta (PSC), with a 4.2.

Former President Carles Puigdemont, who this very Wednesday saw his European immunity stripped, has an average score of 4; as always, with very good scores among his voters and very negative among voters of unionist parties. A similar situation to Laura Borràs, who has a 3.8. Carlos Carrizosa (Cs) and Ignacio Garriga (Vox) are the worst rated, with a 1.7; and they share the podium with Inés Arrimadas (2), who has just left politics.

Technical sheet

The collection of survey data was carried out in person between May 29 and June 26 by the company GESOP. 2,000 adults eligible to vote in the Catalan and general elections were interviewed. For a 95% confidence level, the margin of error is 2.1%.