The PP narrowly misses absolute majority in Andalusia with Vox on the decline, according to the CIS

MadridJuanma Moreno could save himself "the mess" of a pact with Vox, according to the pre-election survey by the Sociological Research Center (CIS). The PP would maintain an absolute majority, although the option with "most probability" is that it will be by a narrow margin. The CIS forecasts that the popular candidate would obtain 55 seats, which is precisely the number of deputies needed to not depend on any other parliamentary group in the Andalusian chamber. It is a result, however, that is worse than what Moreno obtained in 2022, when he reached 58 seats. On the other hand, Vox is also declining and would obtain 13 deputies, which is one less than four years ago, and would not be decisive. In contrast, the PSOE would slightly improve results without the option of ousting the right.

The acting Andalusian president, who represents the most moderate soul of the PP, has shown reluctance to pact with the far-right in this pre-campaign – it officially begins next Friday. "Stability or mess" is the dichotomy that Moreno presents to Andalusians. That is, the only possible choice is between a popular absolute majority or forcing him to go through the ordeal of negotiating with Vox. The PP candidate wants to avoid having to submit to the demands of Santiago Abascal's party and having to reproduce the pacts they have already closed with their counterparts in Extremadura and Aragon. Moreno has distanced himself from the principle of "national priority" in access to public aid, which has marked the agreements signed by the popular parties of Extremadura and Aragon, and which the popular leadership has now also made its own – albeit with some nuances that have caused a confrontation with Vox on a state level.

However, the bulk of the CIS survey was conducted before According to the CIS, however, "curbing immigration" is not the main reason that can sway votes for one party or another in the Andalusian elections. "Improving public healthcare" is the main factor, followed by "solving the housing problem." The migratory issue is in third place, more than 40 points behind the first concern.

Montero resists

With this framework, the left-wing bloc grows. However, the CIS confirms that the PSOE is far from managing to unseat Moreno, although it predicts that the Andalusian adventure of the former vice-president of the Spanish government, María Jesús Montero, will serve to prevent the socialists from worsening their results. The poll gives them as the option with "most probability" of obtaining 31 seats, which is one more than the socialist candidate obtained in 2022, Juan Espadas. An improvement that, however, continues to condemn the PSOE to the role of opposition. The result of the two candidacies to its left also does not serve to position itself as a real alternative to the president of the PP Andaluz. The Per Andalusia unity candidacy, led by IU leader Antonio Maíllo, and which brings together Sumar and Podemos, would obtain four seats, one less than in the previous elections. The Endavant Andalusia split would be ahead and would go from the current two deputies to six.