MadridThe speed at which issues burn through the political spectrum within Madrid's M-30 ring road is dizzying, and each political group's ability to control the agenda is key to gaining an advantage over its rivals. This is the Spanish government's main battle, launching proposals every week to showcase its achievements—such as the declassification of documents related to the 23-F coup attempt—while the People's Party (PP) and Vox are working hard to bring the alleged corruption cases affecting the Socialist Party (PSOE) to the forefront. But some events transcend domestic politics, and positioning oneself well on the political chessboard depends on the players' skill. This is what happened last Saturday when the US and Israeli attack on Iran once again shook the world. Since then, the war has become the main political issue in Spain, with President Pedro Sánchez taking up the "No to War" banner in line with public opinion—at least according to the polls.
Sánchez has become this week the nemesis of US President Donald Trump – in the words of Financial Times– for two reasons: the decision to veto the use of the Rota and Morón military bases for war and leading the strongest criticism within the EU against the attack on Iran. The Socialists view Sánchez's bold stand against Trump positively: with Wednesday's institutional declaration, Sánchez has been pulling the rest of the European countries toward a more critical position with the United States. Those within the Socialist circle highlight the decision of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni not to enter the war, given that she is one of the European leaders with the best relationship with the US administration.
La Moncloa feels strengthened in the Sánchez-Trump debate, a framework they have been cultivating for some time with episodes such as Venezuela, Greenland, Gaza, and the rejection of increased military spending. They interpret this as favorable for gaining ground on the PP and Vox in the lead-up to the Spanish elections. Their analysis is that the war in Iran will be a long one and will negatively impact the public, thus proving that Sánchez's position is the right one. "They are hypocrites because it's very easy to be warmongering at the expense of others," Sánchez said this Saturday at a PSOE campaign event in Castile and León. They contrast the current attitude of the PSOE with that of the PP regarding the Iraq War in 2003, and Sánchez will present this argument in Congress after the European Council meeting on March 19 with the EU heads of state.
Socialist leaders were boasting this week about international press articles that have presented Sánchez as the leading figure in the fight against corruption: from the Financial Times to The Economistpassing through the New York Times and the PoliticalA presenter on Turkish television, Halk TV, also expressed gratitude for Spain's position – "Thank you for being on the right side of history," she said as she signed off the news broadcast.
The complexity with Esquerra
The ease with which Sánchez navigates international politics contrasts sharply with the arduous path he faces domestically between now and June. Far from improving his relationship with his coalition partners, he finds himself in a quagmire with both Junts and Esquerra, which means he will be unable to pass a budget and implement his legislative agenda.
The political course of Pedro Sánchez
The regional elections, the judicial calendar, and the relationship with the partners will set the domestic agenda.
March 15
Elections in Castile and León
March 17
The minister has pledged to present this year's budget even without support during the first quarter. Tuesday, March 17th, is the first available date at the cabinet meeting. Other options include March 24th or March 31st, the latter coinciding with Easter.
March 19
European Council meeting to address the war in the Middle East.
March 20
The Catalan Parliament is debating the entire budget. The Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) is maintaining its veto without a commitment from the Treasury to delegate the collection of personal income tax (IRPF) to the Catalan government. Should the Parliament reject the budget, the Catalan government will have two options: extend the 2023 budget of Pere Aragonès or call early elections.
Plenary session of March 24-26
Possible appearance of the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, to explain Spain's position on the Iran war.
Before April
Meeting between Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Basque Premier Imanol Pradales to agree on the transfer of management of Basque airports and the five-year update of the Basque quota. Two key issues for the relationship between the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE).
April-May
Finance Minister María Jesús Montero is leaving the government to run for office. Pedro Sánchez will have two options: make a surgical reshuffle, as he did with the departure of Minister Pilar Alegría to run in Aragon, or carry out a broader cabinet reshuffle to face the final stretch of the legislature.
April
Start of the regularization of migrants, once the procedures to definitively approve the royal decree agreed between Podemos and the PSOE have been completed.
The effective regularization of migrants is a prerequisite for Podemos to negotiate the delegation of immigration powers in Catalonia, a demand of Junts. Negotiations between the PSOE and Podemos are underway to bridge their differences.
If an agreement is also reached with Junts, one of the most important commitments of Pedro Sánchez's term to Carles Puigdemont's party would be fulfilled.
April 6
The Kitchen case trial begins, concerning the PP's use of the Interior Ministry to extract information from former treasurer Luis Bárcenas.
April 7
The trial of former minister José Luis Ábalos and his former advisor Koldo García begins in the case concerning face masks during the pandemic. The Speaker of the Congress, Francina Armengol, and Minister Ángel Víctor Torres will be among the witnesses.
April 15
First investiture session of Jorge Azcón (PP) in Aragon.
April-June
The CJEU is expected to rule on the amnesty starting on April 14.
The Constitutional Court will rule on the appeal for protection filed by Puigdemont and the other pro-independence leaders. If the ruling is favorable, it would pave the way for the former president's return.
If, as a result of the Constitutional Court's decision, the Supreme Court fully applies the amnesty to all the leaders of the Catalan independence movement, Sánchez would be fulfilling the major commitment of the legislature to the separatists.
The Supreme Court may choose to refer a preliminary question back to the CJEU and further prolong the process.
May 4th
The deadline for María Guardiola to be sworn in as president of Extremadura and Jorge Azcón as president of Aragon has passed. New elections will automatically be called in both autonomous communities if they have not reached an agreement with Vox beforehand.
May 28–June 4
Trial of Pedro Sánchez's brother for the position created in the Badajoz Provincial Council.
June
Elections in Andalusia. The date has yet to be finalized and must be decided by the president of the regional government and leader of the People's Party (PP), Juanma Moreno Bonilla.
June 28
If there is no agreement between Vox and the PP in Extremadura and Aragon, this would be the date of the repeat elections in both autonomous communities.
The meeting Sánchez held with Oriol Junqueras regarding the delegation of Personal Income Tax (IRPF) revenue to the Catalan government did not go well, and this has jeopardized the support of the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) for both the Catalan and Spanish budgets. The Treasury maintains that it will present the national budget within the first quarter of 2026 – March 17th could be the earliest possible date – but without any expectation of its passage. Negotiations will intensify in the coming days to try to salvage the Catalan issue. ERC has until March 20th to withdraw its amendment to the entire Catalan budget, but there is no end in sight: the Republicans want a gesture from the Spanish government that would open the door to IRPF revenue collection, but the Treasury is ruling it out – the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council meeting, scheduled for March, where ERC had hoped for immediate progress, has even been postponed.
The impasse with Junts
The situation is even worse with Junts. There is no direct dialogue, and they still have outstanding issues: the official recognition of Catalan in Europe—government sources were optimistic this week—; the transfer of immigration powers to the Generalitat (Catalan government); and Puigdemont's return through amnesty. Regarding the transfer, the Spanish government's plan involved reaching an agreement with Podemos on the regularization of immigrants and Podemos being open to voting in favor of Junts's law, which they have thus far considered "racist." According to sources familiar with the matter, in recent days they have submitted a proposal that has not convinced Puigdemont's party, as it touches on the "technical" aspects of the transfer of powers. "The question is whether Podemos is in favor of Catalonia having these powers or not," Junts sources emphasize.
Regarding Puigdemont's return, it is pending the ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union. If the opinion is similar to that of the Advocate General, who fully endorsed the amnesty, everything points to the Constitutional Court ruling favorably on his appeal for protection of fundamental rights, allowing him to return. Then it would be the Supreme Court's turn. What would the timeline be? According to sources at the CJEU, a ruling is not expected in March, and the first two weeks of April are judicial recess. Thus, at the earliest, the ruling is not expected until April 14th. The PSOE interprets a possible return of Puigdemont before the summer as potentially paving the way for the Spanish legislature, although it would put the right wing on a war footing.
The Andalusian women, critical of Ferraz
Adding to the problems with coalition partners is the negative electoral cycle for the PSOE in the autonomous communities. After poor results in Extremadura and Aragon—where a repeat election on June 28 is not out of the question due to the PP and Vox's obstruction—comes the Castile and León elections on March 15 and Andalusia in June, where the prospects for the party headquarters are bleak. The latest polls point to a PP victory without reaching an absolute majority and a head-to-head battle for second place between Minister Montero and Vox. At the same time, Sánchez will also be keeping a close eye on the judicial calendar: the trial for the mask scandal involving former minister José Luis Ábalos and Koldo García is scheduled for April 7, and his brother will appear in court on May 28. The PP will also have to face the Kitchen trial of former Interior Minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, which will highlight the dirty war within the police force.
Will the PSOE hold out until the end of the legislature in this context? Those at Moncloa maintain that they will, but some leaders are pushing to hold the Spanish general election at the same time as the Andalusian elections, hoping to gain ground by capitalizing on the confrontation with Trump. Other regional leaders are demanding that, at the very least, the general election be held before the municipal and regional elections of May 2027 so that a potential defeat doesn't negatively impact them. The key lies with Pedro Sánchez, who will not disregard the opinion polls when making his decision.
