The game of chicken ends in a tie

BarcelonaJohn von Neumann was not particularly fond of lanterns –Deception—in poker games—but the father of Game Theory recognized its usefulness in keeping any zero-sum negotiation on edge. Of course, he also warned that one had to know how to play them. To begin with, the success of any lantern It depends on whether the other party—Von Neumann's study focused primarily on two-way negotiations—can consider it plausible. And this is precisely where the negotiating strategy between ERC and PSC regarding the 2026 budget has failed. Salvador Illa set a deadline, March 20, for the Republicans to stop dragging their feet and engaging in a game of chicken—another concept from Game Theory, which explains that both sides move toward the precipice without wanting to be the first to concede—that has ended in a stalemate. The PSC and ERC have given each other more time because it was the only way to ensure that no one loses.

The Catalan president's argument was based on the assumption that ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) was interested in providing stability to the government because, without it, they have much to lose: several republican demands have been implemented, such as the transfer of the Rodalies (commuter rail) system, the new financing agreement, and also the application of the amnesty. If Oriol Junqueras had maintained his amendment to the entire budget, what would have happened after the 20th? lantern Illa's speech essentially consisted of highlighting all the investments and new projects that would be lost, and even emphasizing the difficulty of continuing to pay civil servants' salary increases. The impact on ERC, aware that the credit extensions could salvage most of the things at risk and that it would likely suffer no external or internal damage—ERC members are divided over their support for the PSC—has not been significant. Nor has the threat of early elections been credible; Illa ultimately averted it, but the Socialist negotiators had opened the door to it during negotiations with the Republicans.

ERC has also gone from lanternThey probably had less to lose than the Catalan government, which would have suffered a severe blow in the event of a parliamentary defeat, but the Republicans decided to push things by linking the transfer of income tax revenue to the budget, despite the lack of a direct relationship between the two. Junqueras's party's position of strength would have been to maintain their stance until the end, vote against Illa's budget, and make it clear that without an explicit commitment from the Spanish government regarding income tax, Catalonia would not have a budget. But this Wednesday, income tax is no longer a red line—it will remain "very important," according to Junqueras—and the Republicans are no longer closed to negotiating the budget with the Catalan government, nor even to considering a new offer regarding income tax.

Esquerra's small victory is that it wasn't they who dropped the amendment, but rather the Catalan government that withdrew the budget. And this will have future repercussions because, once discovered, the lanterns They are no longer effective.