The Financing Hamster: Back to 2009 and 1996
BarcelonaExactly 16 years ago, on July 12, 2009, the then-Secretary General of the ERC (Republican Left), Joan Puigcercós, appeared before the press to announce his support for the financing agreement reached by Minister Antoni Castells and Vice President Elena Salgado. Puigcercós placed a small sign on the lectern with a figure: 3.855 billion euros, which was the estimated additional contribution the new system would make to the coffers of the Generalitat (Catalan Government). The subsequent economic crisis, and the resulting drop in tax revenue, shattered these predictions.
Since then, the Spanish political system has been unable to generate a new agreement, even though that agreement was due to be reviewed five years later, in 2014. In between, there was the economic crisis, Rajoy's absolute majority, the 15-M (Republican Left) movement, the Proceso (Criminal Process), and the arrival of Pedro Sánchez. And nothing. The only significant change was the creation of the FLA (Financial Assistance Program) so the state could lend money at lower interest rates to the autonomous communities, thus preventing them from going bankrupt and from being unable to pay salaries (what are they waiting for, by the way, to actually make this debt forgiveness effective?). And the hamster keeps running.
Now we're back in a similar situation to 2009. The Ministry of Economy is in the hands of the Socialists, but it's the ERC party pushing for "unique financing" and "the key to the fund." The Republicans fear that if they pull the strings too hard, the PSOE will back down, and that's why they're treading carefully. But, in reality, neither they nor the PSOE should suffer too much. Why? Because no autonomous community has the slightest interest in collecting taxes, just as none has called for the creation of a police force like the Mossos d'Esquadra or for jurisdiction over prisons. In other words, the rest of the autonomous communities only jump on Catalonia's bandwagon when it comes to stopping the situation, not managing problems. The desire for self-government is a matter for Catalonia and the Basque Country.
The precedent of 1996
The real concern is the distribution of resources. Money, of course. But there shouldn't be a problem here either. At the moment, it's impossible for the PP-led regions to sign up to a financing system agreed upon by the PSOE and ERC because it would undermine Feijóo's entire strategy. The situation, in this case, is similar to what occurred in 1996, when the regions governed by the PSOE (Andalusia, Extremadura, and Castilla-La Mancha) didn't accept the new system agreed upon between the PP and CiU and were left out of the system, which harmed their citizens. Obviously, this was part of the PSOE's strategy of opposition to the PP. That's why, when they saw that the PP governments were going too far, they rushed to rejoin. Now, the PP barons (Ayuso, Moreno Bonilla, Mazón, etc.) would have no choice but to do what Chaves, Ibarra, and Bono did in their day. In other words, María Jesús Montero can easily present a system that involves a 20 billion euro injection into the system, knowing that, initially, only Catalonia, Asturias, and Castilla-La Mancha will claim their share. And the problem, in any case, will be for Feijóo when he takes office and must at least match the Socialists' offer for his territories.
