The CIS maintains the PSOE as the leading party, but the PP is closing the gap.

MadridDespite the instability of Pedro Sánchez's government and criticism from the right and far right, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) would win the Spanish elections if they were held today, according to the first barometer of 2026, as reported by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). However, the center, directed by José Félix Tezanos, also detects a trend toward the People's Party (PP). According to the data, Pedro Sánchez's party would have an estimated 31.7% of the vote, a few tenths of a point higher than in the last barometer (31.4%), while the PP would follow with an estimated 23%, narrowing the gap compared to the previous survey (22.4%). The far-right Vox party would obtain 17.7% (down from 17.6%), thus maintaining its third-place position. In any case, these are very slight movements and may not be significant given the margin of error inherent in all polls.

Regarding the left wing of the PSOE, the trend is downward compared to the previous poll. The junior partner in the Spanish government, Sumar, is more than ten points behind Santiago Abascal's party. Yolanda Díaz's party obtains 7.8% of the estimated vote (previously 7.2%), just over three points behind Podemos, which stands at 3.5%, six points lower than the previous poll. Those who have gained ground are Gabriel Rufián of ERC, who rises from 2.1% to 2.6%, and slightly Miriam Nogueras of Junts, who goes from 0.8% to 1%.

This is the first poll after the elections in Extremadura, marked by the PSOE's resounding defeat and the rise of the far-right Vox party in this region, where they are negotiating to join María Guardiola's government. The survey was also conducted in parallel with the latest negotiations on funding between the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez and Esquerra Republicana (ERC), from January 5th to 10th. This includes the photograph taken by the Spanish president and the ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, at the Moncloa Palace on January 8th, sealing the agreement on the distribution of resources in Catalonia and, by extension, in the autonomous communities. The following day, the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, presented the entire model at a press conference. Despite the electoral prospects shown by the voting intentions, the figures change when respondents are asked about their preference for president: Sánchez emerges with a clear advantage over Feijóo. 38.7% of those surveyed place the PSOE leader as their favorite to be head of the Spanish government, well above the 15.4% who cite Alberto Núñez Feijóo. In fact, Santiago Abascal surpasses the PP leader, with 16.5% expressing support for his presidency. But the one who stands out most from his party's projected vote share is Gabriel Rufián. While Esquerra Republicana (ERC) garners 2.6% of the vote, 6.7% of those surveyed say that the voice of the Republicans in Madrid is their favorite to be president of Spain. These figures reflect the Rufián phenomenon beyond Catalonia and, specifically, within the framework of the references of the Spanish left. In this respect, she is ahead of Yolanda Díaz (4.9%). Also, on the other side of the political spectrum: 6.1% say their favorite is the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso.

The international scenario

The barometer also asks about the international situation, as the survey was conducted amidst the international upheaval caused by Donald Trump's actions in Venezuela. In fact, on this latter issue, Spaniards overwhelmingly reject the US actions: 71.8% believe that international law and the UN Charter have been violated. However, the figures vary depending on the question. 50.3% of respondents think Trump has not acted correctly, while 28.6% think he has acted "partly and partly." At the same time, 13.6% of respondents believe he has acted "correctly." When asked if the US president has endangered world peace, 61.5% say yes and 32.1% say no. However, there is a substantial difference between men and women on this point. 52.8% of men answered yes, while for women the figure rose to 69.7%, indicating a gender gap in opinion regarding Donald Trump's actions. International relations and US actions are generating polarization in Spanish political debate: this Thursday, the left and right clashed. in Congress because of the role in Venezuela and the relationship that Europe should or should not maintain with the United States.