The CIS boosts the PSOE and sinks the PP, with Vox hot on its heels.
The October barometer widens the gap between the two main parties to fifteen points.
MadridUnlike other private polls, the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) once again predicts a PSOE victory in the October polls. According to estimates published this Monday, the Socialists would rise to 34.8% in a Spanish election and consolidate their lead with a 2.1-point increase. In contrast, the CIS has seen the PP sink, losing 3.9 points in one month to 19.8%, with Vox hot on its heels. The far-right party has grown four-tenths of a percentage point and is projected to obtain 17.7% of the vote. Sumar, on the other hand, has lost two-tenths of a percentage point and stands at 7.7%, while Podemos has grown six-tenths of a percentage point, reaching 4.9%.
Although the public body chaired by José Félix Tezanos, as usual, gives Pedro Sánchez more optimistic results than the opinion polls conducted by other companies—which invariably leads the right to question the CIS studies—it points to a trend already indicated by other polls in recent months, namely the growth of the Popular Party (PP). In the October poll, Santiago Abascal's party is just 2.1 points behind the PP, while a month ago Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party had a 6.4-point lead.
On the same day the CIS was published, the PP accused Vox of being in a "tweaking" relationship with the PSOE against them. Feijóo stated this in an interview on Antena 3, and Alma Ezcurra, the deputy secretary for sectoral coordination, reiterated it in a press conference. She lamented that both parties "agree on their strategy and objective of ending Feijóo." Ezcurra also questioned Tezanos's numbers: "If Sánchez had believed them, he would have called elections." The Vox president, in turn, accused Feijóo of being more "concerned" about Vox than about "ousting" Sánchez. "There are some who only look at the polls. It's good to look in the rearview mirror for safety, but if you look at him all the time, you could crash," Abascal warned in a press conference.
Rivalry on the right
Vox sees a PP "obsessed" with them and powerless to stop them. According to the far-right leader, Feijóo lacks credibility on issues such as immigration, a debate that Vox has capitalized on until now and in which the PP is trying not to be left out with a progressively hardening of its discourse. In the same interview, the PP leader proposed centralizing immigration powers in a "single authority" instead of having them divided among "five ministries," and he announced that he will outline these matters this Tuesday. his announced plan on the subject at an event in Barcelona.
Another debate in which this battle on the right looms is that of abortion. The CIS survey was conducted precisely between October 1 and 7, when the controversy erupted over the Madrid People's Party's support for a Vox initiative to force women to be informed about a false "postural trauma." Last week, Isabel Díaz Ayuso added fuel to the fire by rejecting the creation of the registry of conscientious objector doctors established by state law. Feijóo, who was forced by the hardline wing of the party to take on this uncomfortable debate within the PP, denied that the Madrid president had declared herself "in rebellion" and asserted that the Popular Party abides by the law. However, he also agreed with the questioning of the registry, saying that, if he governs, he will have it done the other way around. Instead of a list of conscientious objector doctors, it will be those who perform abortions.
Sumar wants to mark profile
In parallel, Sumar, the only left-wing party in Spain that the CIS considers to be in decline, launched a proposal this Monday to establish its profile. Yolanda Díaz's party has proposed approving a decree in the Council of Ministers "on urgent measures to intervene in the housing market"—the main problem in the state, according to those surveyed in the latest poll. The plan, which requires the endorsement of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) to be implemented, has as its main axes "the freezing and extension of rental contracts," the "regulation of seasonal, room, and tourist contracts" to prevent "fraudulent use," as well as the limitation of "speculative home purchases." During the period in which the poll was conducted, political news has also been marked by Gaza and the arrest of the Flotilla activists, another issue that both the PSOE and its minority partner, along with Podemos, have sought to capitalize on. 37.1% of respondents defined themselves as "very concerned" and 30.5% as "very concerned" about what is happening in the Strip.
In the assessment of leaders, Pedro Sánchez receives the highest score, with 4.44, followed by Yolanda Díaz with 4.24, Alberto Núñez Feijóo with 3.46, and Santiago Abascal with 2.89. Regarding the independence movement, ERC fell one-tenth to 2%, while Junts grew two-tenths to 1%. The survey was conducted after the PP, Vox, and Podemos delegated immigration powers to the regional council members. Immigration is in second place as a concern in the CIS.