The CIS boosts the PSOE and sinks the PP, with Vox hot on its heels.
The October barometer widens the gap between the two main parties to fifteen points.
MadridUnlike other private polls, the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) once again predicts a PSOE victory in the October polls. According to estimates published this Monday, the Socialists would rise to 34.8% in a Spanish election and consolidate their lead with a 2.1-point increase. In contrast, the CIS has sunk the PP, which has lost 3.9 points in one month and stands at 19.8%, with Vox hot on its heels. The far-right party has grown four-tenths of a percentage point and is projected to obtain 17.7% of the vote. Sumar, on the other hand, has lost two-tenths of a percentage point and stands at 7.7%, while Podemos has grown six-tenths of a percentage point to 4.9%.
Although the public body chaired by José Félix Tezanos, as usual, gives Pedro Sánchez more optimistic results than the demographic analyses conducted by other companies—which invariably leads the right to question the CIS studies—it points to a trend already indicated by other polls in recent months: growth. In the October poll, Santiago Abascal's party is only 2.1 points ahead of the PP, while a month ago Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party's lead was 6.4 points.
On the same day the CIS was published, the PP accused Vox of being in a "tweaking" relationship with the PSOE against them. Feijóo stated this in an interview on Antena 3, and the deputy secretary for sectoral coordination, Alma Ezcurra, reiterated it in a press conference, lamenting that both parties "agree on their strategy and objective of finishing off Feijóo." Ezcurra also questioned Tezanos's numbers: "If Sánchez had believed them, he would have called elections." The Vox president, in turn, accused Feijóo of being more "concerned" about Vox than about "ousting" Sánchez. "There are some who only look at the polls. It's good to look in the rearview mirror for safety, but if you look all the time, you could crash," Abascal warned in a press conference.
Rivalry on the right
Vox sees a PP "obsessed" with them and powerless to stop them. According to the far-right leader, Feijóo lacks credibility on issues such as immigration, a debate that Vox has capitalized on until now and in which the PP is trying not to be left out with a progressively hardening of its discourse. In the same interview, the PP leader proposed centralizing immigration powers in a "single authority" instead of having them distributed among "five ministries" and has announced that he will outline these matters this Tuesday. his announced plan on the subject at an event in Barcelona.
Another debate in which this battle hovers on the right is that of abortion. The CIS survey was conducted precisely between October 1 and 7, when the controversy erupted over the Madrid People's Party's support for a Vox initiative to force women to be informed about a false "postural trauma." Last week, Isabel Díaz Ayuso added fuel to the fire by rejecting the creation of the registry of conscientious objector doctors established by state law. Feijóo, who was pushed by the hardline wing of the party, denied that the Madrid president had declared herself "in rebellion" and asserted that the PP complies with the law. However, he also agreed with the questioning of the registry, saying that, if he governs, he will have it done the other way around. Instead of a list of objecting doctors, it will be those who actually perform abortions.
Sumar wants to establish a profile
In parallel, Sumar, the only left-wing party in Spain that the CIS considers to be in decline, launched a proposal this Monday to establish its profile. Yolanda Díaz's party has proposed approving a decree in the Council of Ministers "on urgent measures to intervene in the housing market." The plan, which requires the endorsement of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) to be implemented, has as its main axes "the freezing and extension of rental contracts," the "regulation of seasonal, room, and tourist rentals" to prevent "fraudulent use," as well as the limitation of "speculative home purchases." During the period in which the barometer was conducted, political news has also been marked by Gaza and the arrest of the Flotilla activists, another issue that both the PSOE and its minority partner, Podemos, have sought to capitalize on.
