Can Vox overtake the PP?

MadridPolls published at the start of this political year confirm that Vox is on the rise to the detriment of the PP. If a year ago, Santiago Abascal's party had a voting intention of 13.1%, according to the barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), in September they stood at 17.3%. In one year, Santiago Abascal's party has closed the gap with the Popular Party by nine points, which is in decline, according to other polls such as the one conducted by 40dB for The Country and Cadena SER. Faced with this shift in voters, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has opted to toughen its rhetoric on issues such as immigration in an attempt to halt a trend that complicates its electoral prospects. Between now and the next general elections, could Vox make the overtaking in the PP?

Several experts consulted by ARA agree that it is not a plausible scenario, although current indicators distance the aspiration of the popular leader, expressed at the party congress at the beginning of July, to govern alone and reach 10 million votes. "None of the new parties have been able to do so," recalls Jordi Mir, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and the Pompeu Fabra University (UPF), citing the times when there was talk of a possible overtaking From Ciudadanos to the Popular Party (PP), or from Podemos to the Socialists. Mir points out that both the PP and the PSOE are "traditional parties with very solid pillars" that allow them to endure, and that the "sociology" of the state doesn't indicate that "so many people would decide to change their voting preferences to support such a radical project." "The ideas that exist in our society don't suggest it could become a majority party," says Mir, who, however, notes that Vox is the one "capitalizing" on the "wear and tear" of the PSOE, and not the main party of the opposing bloc, the PP.

Miguel Martín, an expert in demoscopy and market research at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), makes the same comparison with the post-15-M elections and adds that for Vox to overtake the PP, Feijóo's party would have to "fall to around 4 million voters" – as happened with the PP, 9 million votes alongside it – which means that Feijóo would have to lose half of the votes obtained in 2023, when he obtained more than 8 million votes. "It's hardly credible," says Martín, who even sees it as "very difficult" for the far right to make such a "brutal jump in seats" to place itself above the 50 deputies it had in the previous legislature (this one has 33). "The two major parties [PP and PSOE] have a very established vote and the pie [of voters] to be divided up is what it is," he points out. Martín adds that at the same time, the CIS (National Statistics Institute) predicts that the Fiesta party is over. Alvise Pérez's party could steal a piece of the pie from Vox if it were to run in the Spanish elections.

"It's a possible risk."

For the professor of political science at the University of Barcelona (UB) Xavier Torrens, however, one overtaking Vox's fall into the PP "is currently a credible and possible risk." "There is no poll that predicts it, but it is true that it is heading in that direction. A few years ago it was unlikely and now it is not," he assures. Torrens explains that one of the strong points of the far right is the youth vote. Furthermore, "the winds are blowing in favor" of Abascal's party internationally. However, the UB political scientist points out that the PP has a stronger "organizational structure" and Vox is finding "difficulties in gaining ground among the female vote." "Here, if there is no overtaking It would be thanks to women's votes," concludes Torrens.