Sánchez leans towards a September of all or nothing

MadridThe last week of the school year before the summer holidays ended marked by the entry of thousands of migrants from Morocco into Ceuta. A migratory tragedy that has triggered a humanitarian emergency in the autonomous city. At first, the Spanish government, which was just emerging from the crisis over the serious fires in the State, tried to avoid it by maintaining a low public profile –Pedro Sánchez only traveled there on July 31– and quickly calling for a return to "normality". However, in the week of August 10, it was forced to increase its presence in the autonomous city with almost one minister visiting per day.

The pressure from neighbors among whom tension is growing over how the crisis is being managed, added to the pressure from the opposition and also from partners for Pedro Sánchez to be held accountable a month after the crisis, has led the head of the Spanish executive to set aside the low profile: the school year begins earlier than planned and with Ceuta in the spotlight with a appearance this coming Thursday in Congress. There, a right and far-right will await him, who will blame Sánchez for everything. For them, the crisis has also served to toughen their anti-immigration discourse. But parties to the left of the PSOE will also await him, who will demand tougher action against Morocco, which they point to as being behind the migratory crisis, and explanations for the precarious situation in which many migrants, some minors, still live. Meanwhile, Junts has found an open window to revive the aspiration for Catalonia to have competencies in migration.

The truth is that this crisis, as well as the fires, have left Pedro Sánchez's record from Moncloa or the traditional summer meeting with the Spanish monarch from Palma de Mallorca, before the summer, almost in tatters. In fact, so much so that the agendas that were supposed to mark the start of this school year were completely different. If he wants to unblock them, he will have to face the balances with the partners again. With them, Sánchez is heading towards a September, and also towards the end of the legislature, of all or nothing.

Housing and financing

Let's take it step by step. The last week before the summer period, housing and regional financing were the focus of public debate. Everyone expected the Council of Ministers to approve a new decree with measures to alleviate the housing emergency the State is experiencing. Also, that the Ministry of Finance and the common-regime autonomous communities would discuss and vote on a new financing model. Both have now been postponed until September. The list, however, doesn't end there: Sánchez will also have to face the presentation of the General State Budgets for 2027, as he has committed to, as well as the unlocking of other matters: for example, diesel taxation or the reinforcement of the hourly registry that Yolanda Díaz has demanded.

The Spanish President went on vacation warning that "a legislature lasts four years". But beyond the crisis in Ceuta, when it comes to moving forward with legislative goals, the positions of the parties in the investiture bloc mean that the feeling of deadlock increases with each passing day. Especially with the positions of Junts and Podemos, with whom he has to juggle to satisfy their demands, often contradictory, which has become a tortuous path for the central executive – the most recent example is, in fact, the delegation of powers in immigration–.

Junts maintains that they are not negotiating anything. In the case of the housing decree, for example, they have limited themselves to saying that Moncloa has not accepted their demands, or that it included proposals they had already rejected, such as the extraordinary extension of rent agreements. The Spanish government, however, insisted that it saw room for progress and Sumar, the minority partner, even spoke of "progress in dialogue", in the words of its spokesperson, Ernest Urtasun. In parallel, Laura Borràs has been pardoned, although both sides have wanted to decouple it from a political reading. For Podemos, who harshly criticized the government for leaving this matter for September, any modification of the land law will be a "red line", whereas Junts embraces it.

Meanwhile, the reform of regional financing continues to fail to reach the council of ministers' table. If just over a year ago the former Minister of Finance María Jesús Montero indicated that the procedures for the new financing model, the forgiveness of regional debt, and the State budgets for 2026 could be superimposed, for now only the second issue has managed to make its way through Congress. It was an "all in" that has not arrived.

ERC has not liked that the financing file, sensitive to them, has been set aside. Even less so after the Moncloa accepted the PP's request for more time to study it (until now it has rejected it). Although they warn that they are not committed to the "survival of any government", the republicans do not lose sight of the fact that the end of the legislature "is uncertain, with a right and an extreme right increasingly strong, and this further reinforces the need for a force [in Madrid] that defends Catalonia, social rights and democratic quality", indicate party sources in Congress.

The budgets for 2026 are already water under the bridge and at Moncloa they are looking at 2027. "We will present and approve them," assured Sánchez. The incentives for parties to make a move become complicated if it is taken into account that in 2027 an electoral race will open that will begin in local councils and in some autonomous communities. And on the eve of an election, both sides recognize that it is an impossible mission to approve anything.

The State budgets are one of the most important litmus tests, if not the most important, to be able to boast of stability, but also of a government project, even though Sánchez has downplayed having extended those of 2023. In fact, if they do not prosper – faced with this scenario, the PNB has asked for elections actively and passively – they can serve as an electoral calling card for the PSOE.

From the courts to the oasis

Beyond the legislative agenda, Sánchez will face successive judicial battles within the PSOE – the most damaging being the one involving José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – as well as his personal circle – the Begoña Gómez case –, which will continue to monopolize the agenda.

For this reason, any other framework is an oasis for the Spanish government, especially one that allows it to put the PP on the ropes. With the fires, for example, and the call for a state pact against the climate emergency, Sánchez pressured the PP to commit to an agreement and to stop, in his opinion, giving wings to Vox, a party that champions climate denialism. In the case of the crisis in Ceuta, they have denounced that the popular party has bought into the far-right's anti-immigration framework, even though management problems are turning against the executive. The visit of Pope Leo X or the Spanish national team's victory in the World Cup have also provided a boost in morale.

Finally, the other oasis has been the CJEU ruling on the amnesty law. Europe has endorsed it, and Sánchez has not hesitated to seize it as an opportunity to equate it to an "endorsement" of the PSOE's policy in the "reconciliation" between Catalonia and the State. But while he sees the glass half full, others see it half empty. The Supreme Court is applying the amnesty drop by drop, which not only frustrates the Spanish executive, but also Junts, which sees time passing and the return of Carles Puigdemont – and which the Spanish government interpreted as a "window of opportunity" to mend the relationship – drawing ever closer to the end of the legislative term.