Governability of the State
Politics 16/09/2021

Sánchez extends advantage over PP despite rise in electricity prices, CIS poll finds

Socialists would get 29.6% of the vote while the PP would drop three points compared to July (20.5%) in new elections

2 min
The president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, yesterday in the session of control to the executive in the Senate .

MadridThe surveys of the Center for Sociological Research continue to smile on Pedro Sanchez, despite the increase in electricity prices generating a problem after the summer break. The poll published this Thursday, prepared between 1 and 13 September, gives the Socialists (PSOE) 29.6% of the vote share, one point more than in July. The rightwing People's Party (PP), on the other hand, does not increase its share of the vote, contrary to the polls published in conservative media. In fact, it even suffers a setback compared to a couple of months ago, dropping from 23.4% to 20.5%. Vox rises two tenths (13.8%), Unidas Podemos seven (11.3%) and Cs one point (6.5%).

Theoretically, the next general elections are more than two years away and the Spanish president publicly states that he is not interested in the polls. The second half of his term has just begun and he has no interest in snap elections. The economic recovery and the management of European funds are key for the PSOE-Unidas Podemos coalition government, and will also affect the negotiating table with the Generalitat, which started this Wednesday with a commitment that it will be extended.

The Socialists, therefore, continue their progress in CIS polls. In June they obtained 27.4%, in July 28.6% and now 29.6%, bettering their results in the November 2019 elections (28%). The PP, which recently polled above 23%, returns to figures similar to last elections', where it obtained 20.8% of the votes. Unidas Podemos fluctuates in small ups and downs: in June it stood at 12%, fell to 10.6% in July and now rises to 11.3%. Cs is also registering a notable increase, although it is still below the 6.7% it obtained in the last elections, leaving it in a delicate position. For the time being, Inés Arrimadas has not managed to recover lost ground.

As for Catalan pro-independence forces, ERC would get 3.2% of the votes statewide, one tenth less than in July; JxCat 1.5%, four tenths below; and the CUP 0.8%, one tenth more than in the July poll.

Díaz is still ahead of Sánchez

There is still time left before the next elections and, therefore, there may still be surprises as to which candidates will stand. However, it does seem likely Unidas Podemos will be led by Yolanda Diaz, although she has neither confirmed nor denied whether she will be a candidate in hypothetical elections. There is also uncertainty as to whether parties to the left of the Socialists will stand as a coalition of some sort. Be that as it may, Díaz is currently the most highly valued political leader, despite not achieving a pass mark. She is given a score of 4.6/10, one tenth above Pedro Sánchez (4.5) and three above Íñigo Errejón (4.2). On the right, Arrimadas is given a 3.6, Casado a 3.2 and Santiago Abascal a 2.7.

Among his own voters on 10-N, the socialist leader passes with 6.6. En Comú voters give him a 6.1, Unidas Podemos voters a 5.7 and ERC voters a 5.3. JxCat voters, on the other hand, fail the Spanish president with a 4.1. Díaz's assessment is overall higher than that of Sanchez - only one tenth - thanks to the good grade she is given by her supporters: a 7.8 by En Comú voters and 7.1 by Unidas Podemos voters. ERC voters, who passed Sánchez, fail the Minister of Labour with a 4.8 and JxCat voters fail her with a 3.8. In this line, both ERC voters and JxCat prefer Sánchez as president rather than Díaz. On the right, Casado only passes among his own voters, scraping through with a 5.5. Arrimadas does not even manage that much: her own voters fail her with a 4.4.

The increase in energy prices, one of the main problems for 3.8% of the population

The debate on energy has been part of political news in recent months, but the CIS has decided not to directly ask citizens' opinion. The only point where you can assess the social concern about the electricity bill is the question about the main problems that citizens perceive in Spain. Only 3.8% of those surveyed answered that it is "the increase in energy prices". This number is the same when asked about their own personal situation as for the situation in the State as a whole. It must be taken into account, however, that when the pollsters ask this question, they are not given a possible list of options beforehand. As usual, unemployment is citizens' main concern.