Pedro Sánchez's last impossible mission

MadridPedro Sánchez has gone on vacation with a challenge: have a general state budget in 2026, although it's already late in the usual procedures. During this term, the Spanish government has not attempted to present public accounts to the Congress of Deputies—the State is operating with the 2023 budget. It hasn't even presented a draft budget, that is, a text that will at least pass the Council of Ministers. Now, however, Sánchez himself has stated that he wants to leave behind the accounts of two years ago. To achieve this goal, he will have to convince the plurinational majority that allowed his investiture—no one foresees an agreement with the PP—and that requires presenting a budget that pleases everyone from Junts to Podem, parties that usually have distant positions, which has been an obstacle on many occasions. The outlook, therefore, is not peaceful. "There will be no [budget]," says a former Catalan member of Congress, who has firsthand knowledge of the negotiating structure behind the State's public accounts.

The truth is that since he was sworn in as Spanish president, Sánchez's term has been marked by the word "difficult," a result of parliamentary fragmentation: he needs the support of each and every one of his partners to push through his measures. In fact, in November 2023, the investiture puzzle also seemed like an impossible mission. However, the entire plurinational bloc concluded that it had more to lose if the puzzle wasn't solved: PSOE and Sumar lost the possibility of repeating the coalition; the left feared a merger of PP and Vox, but so did the independentists. For them, this merger scenario meant not only having no influence, but also the possibility of being left without amnesty. The agreement between the various parties ultimately prospered despite the demands and mistrust from the starting point.

In the face of budget negotiations, this starting point is quite similar, but there are differences. Some voices (media, political, but also social and economic) believe that among those involved in the investiture, some believe they have more to gain than to lose if everything goes up in smoke. They point to Podemos in this position, which, since breaking with Sumar, has become a thorn in Sánchez's side. The party led by Ione Belarrra has emerged as the real left-wing alternative and seeks to regain hegemony in this space through a strategy of opposition to the current Pedro Sánchez government, of which it had been a member during the previous term. But they also point to Junts. Despite denouncing the PSOE's "breach of duty" in some agreements reached—such as the Catalan agreement in Europe—and not being bound by the full implementation of the amnesty law (Carles Puigdemont still cannot return) the regional government has long begun to explore flirting with the PP when voting in the Congress of Deputies, especially when it comes to economic measures.

And the rest? Although relations are not as tense as with Podemos or Junts, parties such as ERC or the PNV have long been concerned because they also believe that Pedro Sánchez has not complied with some of the previous agreements, or not as they would have liked. In the case of the Republicans, although the negotiation was with the PSC in exchange for swearing in Salvador Illa as president, the materialization of the special funding for Catalonia and the political will it requires from the Spanish executive is the most obvious example. However, the tone isn't as harsh because the Basque Nationalist Party (Jeltzales) governs the Basque Country thanks to the Socialists, while Isla does so thanks to the votes of the ERC. Furthermore, they didn't hesitate to take a swipe at the other partners when they stretch the thread with Sánchez's government and aren't afraid that his departure would mean the entry of the right and the far right. "Saying no to everything is a bad deal," ERC spokesperson in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, told him a few days ago on Podemos.

No interlocutor

But the other major difference compared to the starting point of November 2023 is the void in the position of interlocutor following the preventive imprisonment of Santos Cerdán, who until recently was the number three of the PSOE and Sánchez's strongman. In fact, the Ábalos or Koldo case, also known as the Cerdán case (which investigates, among other things, the alleged fraudulent awarding of public works and the collection of illegal commissions), has meant a rift in trust with the investiture partners to such an extent that he has even floated the idea of a vote of confidence.

It should be noted that Sánchez came to power in Moncloa in 2018 when corruption overwhelmed Mariano Rajoy's (PP) government. At the time, the Socialist leader promised that he would be "impeccable." "It's not enough to apologize; in Congress, you come to assume political responsibility," Sánchez rebuked Rajoy.

Santos Cerdán was in charge of dialogue with Carles Puigdemont's party and, therefore, of smoothing over relations with the Juntarías (Republican Assembly) when things were at a standstill. Sánchez has attempted to heal the wound by announcing measures to end corruption, but the demands of the parties, which so far have not been satisfied with the announcements, go further and will also shape the talks for a new state budget. Podemos, for example, has launched a crusade against the increase in public defense spending sought by NATO. And Junts, among other things, demands that the State fulfill its outstanding budgetary commitments.

Beyond Budgets

Throughout Sánchez's term, he has already had to open up new avenues outside the regulations he wanted to approve to satisfy his constituents. That is, he had to reach agreements parallel to the law being voted on in the Congress of Deputies for it to move forward. One of the latest examples is the efficiency reform of the public justice service, which was voted on last December. The law was approved after Félix Bolaños, the architect of the reform, agreed with Podemos on a six-month extension of the public transport discount and a one-year extension of the ban on evicting certain vulnerable families. In the case of Junts, in January 2024, he saved two decrees with economic measures in exchange for the "comprehensive delegation" of immigration powers to Catalonia, now stranded by the veto of Ione Belarra (Podem). With regard to the public accounts, we will have to see if this card game, which all parties have joined, will continue, and how far it will go.