Sánchez and the calendar of the new political year

MadridThe most interesting aspect of the new political course, which is already approaching, is how the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, will manage the political calendar. Or rather, how he will try to organize it. This nuance is important because the most important decisions are in his hands, but they are increasingly influenced by a set of factors that are difficult to predict. On the one hand, there is the performance of the judicial system and cases of corruption-related crimes. The most dangerous case for the government remains that of the former secretaries of organization of the PSOE, Santos Cerdán and José Luis Ábalos, always accompanied by Koldo García and his recordings.

But on the other hand there is also the case against the Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, and the one affecting Pedro Sánchez's wife, Begoña Gómez, who has had wide coverage in the international press from the outset. The other major unknown, which will decisively influence the political calendar, concerns relations with the investiture pact partners, as well as the Socialist leader's commitment to present a draft budget this fall, without necessarily waiting for support to be secured for its approval.

Regarding the first of these matters, the foreign press—and of course those closest to the PP and Vox within the Madrid M-30—has been making a great deal of use of the judicial chapter for months, with increasingly spectacular headlines, which go so far as to consider that Sánchez's political time is running out.

Already in May last year, for example, the main Italian daily, Corriere della Sera, reported on "Pedro Sánchez's failed resignation" after retreating for five days to reflect on his continued leadership of the coalition government, in response to Judge Juan Carlos Peinado's initiation of proceedings against Begoña Gómez for alleged corruption offenses. The report added that "what might appear to be grand political theater actually reflects one of the most toxic political cultures in Western Europe today," referring to the fact that "in Spain, laws and politics clash much more frequently than in other countries."

The absence of European leaders from the meeting

It will be interesting, in this sense, to see what path it will take now. the complaint filed by Minister Félix Bolaños against the judge himself, after the Supreme Court rejected the magistrate's attempt to charge the head of the Presidency and Justice, considering that Peinado's request had no "circumstantial support." The existence of "informative proceedings" regarding this magistrate's actions has had limited coverage this August, when coverage of the country's current affairs has logically focused on the anguish over the course of the forest fires and their consequences. However, it has been highlighted that Judge Peinado has launched a new accusation against the main suspect in the case, the aforementioned Begoña Gómez, and her advisor at the Moncloa Palace, Cristina Álvarez, for a new crime of embezzlement.

These types of judicial decisions do have an immediate news ripple effect, although their subsequent impact remains highly uncertain. This is to fuel the theory of the government's loss of credibility and capacity for external influence, at a time when Sánchez has been absent from extremely important meetings. Among them, obviously, is the meeting of the main European leaders with US President Donald Trump, after he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a possible agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

If the country's attention were not focused on the situation, so focused on the tragedy of the firesThis absence would have provoked much more criticism, all kinds of political literature, and parliamentary initiatives demanding in-depth information and explanations. Sánchez must be inevitably concerned about the reasons why he wasn't included to participate in such an important event.

I don't believe the reason has anything to do with the aforementioned corruption cases and their influence on a supposed loss of international prestige. Rather, it seems the cause lies in the desire to facilitate a relaxed atmosphere. at the meeting of European leaders with Trump at the White House. It's clear that the Spanish government's relations with the US government have been fraught with divergence over this period, starting with the refusal to increase military spending to five percent of GDP.

On the underlying issue of the war in Ukraine, in any case, Spain's position is very clear, and was summed up by Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares in a statement to the financial news company Bloomberg this week. "We need a ceasefire, first of all, to ensure that we stop the killing of people. And then we'll want to see Russia, which shows no signs of good faith, participating in real talks for a just and lasting peace," Albares argued.

The Negotiation for Catalan in Europe

Albares will have another task next quarter, one that Junts leader Carles Puigdemont has called indispensable: the recognition of Catalan as an official language in the European Union. This negotiation will not be easy for the Spanish government, given the resistance already detected in previous chapters, including that of the PP. In any case, Junts does not want to limit its demands to progress in the implementation of the amnesty law for embezzlement, an issue in which the Constitutional Court can now play an important role.

Puigdemont insists that his group's support can never be taken "for granted.", but this summer he criticized "the architects of chaos," referring to other minorities present in Congress. It remains to be seen who wins the architecture prize for the negotiation of the 2026 state budget proposal. If the government presents them and loses the vote due to their consideration, the option of early elections will become more open. And imagine if, at the same time, there are explosive judicial developments regarding the corruption cases affecting the PSOE. This would truly be the perfect storm the PP has been waiting for since the beginning of the term.