CIS Barometer

PP rebounds and closes the gap with PSOE, according to CIS

Yolanda Díaz is the best rated among political leaders, but Margarita Robles is the best rated among ministers

4 min
Pablo Casado and Pedro Sanchez met at the Moncloa to discuss the budgets of 2021 and the unblocking of institutional bodies, a year ago

Barcelona/MadridThe PP regains ground on the PSOE, according to October's CIS barometer. The Popular Party obtain 22.1% estimated votes, 1.6 points more than in the previous barometer, and gets closer to the figures obtained in July, while the PSOE drops from 29.6% to 28.5%. Thus, from a difference of almost 9 points in the previous survey, the Socialists now have an advantage of 6.4 points over the Popular Party. Unidas Podemos also grows a little and goes from an estimated vote of 11.3% to 11.8%, while Vox and Cs decrease. The far right loses 6 tenths and goes from 13.8% to 13.2%, while Ciudadanos sink even more and are left with 6% estimated votes, half a point less than a month ago.

The CIS survey coincided with the PP convention, the announcement of the agreement between PSOE and Unidas Podemos on the budget, which included the housing pact, and also with the brief detention of former president Carles Puigdemont in Sardinia. One of the objectives of the Partido Popular convention was precisely to regroup the right-wing vote around the PP's acronym, bearing in mind that they are communicating vessels with Vox and Cs. Precisely in the October barometer, the rise of the PP coincides with the decline of the other two right-wing forces. As for the left, part of what the PSOE is losing is being picked up by Unidas Podemos. The two partners in government have also been the protagonists of some controversial issues, such as the regulation of rents in the future housing law, which was finally unblocked thanks to an agreement in parallel to that on the budget.

As for the parties that are only running in Catalonia - the survey only calculates the percentage of the state vote and does not make a projection of seats - there are no major changes. ERC would obtain 3.2% of the votes, one tenth more than in the September poll, Junts would gain one tenth to 1.6% and the CUP would gain another tenth to 0.9%.

Yolanda Díaz, the best valued among leaders

The second vice-president and leader of Unidas Podemos in the government, Yolanda Díaz, is the political leader best valued by the Spaniards. None passes the test, but she is the closest with a 4.8 mark, followed by the president of the government, Pedro Sánchez (4.4). Iñigo Errejón (Más País), with only three MPs in Parliament, is third with a 4.2. Among the leaders of the right, the president of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, with 3.7, slightly exceeds the 3.5 of Pablo Casado (PP) and both are ahead of the leader of the ultra-right, Santiago Abascal, with 2.8. Vox does not need to have good ratings to consolidate itself as the third force in the lower house.

When only asked about the ministers, Díaz is also one of the best valued (5.4), but not the most: this honor goes to the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles (5.5). And this is because those surveyed consider that the expenditure to be cut in case of need is basically that of Defence (51% think so). The other minister who passes is the other vice president, Nadia Calviño, also with a 5.4. And if the great hope of Unidas Podemos for the upcoming elections, Díaz, is at the top of the list, her fellow activist Ione Belarra has not managed to connect with the public. The new Podemos leader is the worst rated minister in the Spanish government with a 4.

Compulsory vaccination?

A 97% of respondents say they have already been vaccinated or will do so soon. Therefore, the survey only detects a 3% of reluctant to get the vaccine, most of them because they do not trust in it and because they believe it may have health risks. There are few covid refusers: only 0.6% of those who do not want to be vaccinated. Miguel Bosé would be one of the clearest references in Spain, like the NBA star Kyrie Irving is in the United States. The difference between them is that Bosé remains a denialist while Irving defends his freedom to choose not to get vaccinated, despite the fact that his team, the Brooklyn Nets, have already warned him that he will be sidelined - and fined - if he does not.

Among those surveyed there is a divided opinion regarding this issue -not on the specific case of Irving, of course-. 48.9% believe that vaccination should be forced on the entire population even if there are citizens who do not want to do so. A 24.6% believe that no one should be forced to do so and 23% believe that it should be studied on a case by case basis. In Spain, 80% of the population is already vaccinated and, excluding children under 12 years of age, who have not yet been vaccinated, the percentage would reach 90%. It is this last 10%, a large part of whom are not vaccinated because they do not consider it necessary, that is of concern to the authorities.

20 years since the end of ETA

"Do you think that the end of ETA violence has been very positive, positive, negative or very negative for Spain and the Basque Country?" With a question like this one can hardly expect a different result than the one offered on Friday by the CIS. 92.2% of those surveyed answered very positive and positive in the case of Spain, and 86.4% in the case of the Basque Country. Next 20 October will be ten years since ETA announced that it was giving up armed activity and 3.7% of citizens believe that it has been negative both for the Basque Country and for Spain as a whole.