Pedro Sánchez or Donald Trump and the murmur of an early election
MadridLa Moncloa maintains that the Spanish elections will be held in 2027 and that the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, intends to complete the legislature. However, both the solemn declaration after Donald Trump's threat of a trade war and the deadlock in Catalonia due to the lack of budgets following the Treasury's refusal to delegate income tax have fueled speculation about a possible early election in Spain. And it is that, beyond positioning himself as an international benchmark for the left and leading the opposition to Trumpism within the European Union, Sánchez's speech this Wednesday could be read in electoral terms. He was directly challenging Spaniards with a dilemma: me or Trump and everything he represents.
Sánchez's speech has enthused the socialist ranks, as it provides an electoral competition framework against the right. The Moncloa strategists have once again caught Alberto Núñez Feijóo off guard: Spain has received the support of the main European powers against Trump's trade threats and Sánchez has recovered the slogan of "No to war", which caused so much harm to José María Aznar's PP. At a time, moreover, without any other consolidated candidate on the left: Yolanda Díaz is not there, Sumar does not yet have an electoral profile, and Gabriel Rufián does not have a platform either to articulate his proposal.
The idea circulating in Madrid –even though official sources from the Spanish government maintain the elections in 2027– is that of an early election in a context of Sánchez vs. Trump, as it is not only a Spanish issue but also that internationally various media and personalities are highlighting the Spanish president as the antithesis of Trumpism. It already happened with the announcement of the regularization of half a million migrants or with previous clashes over Greenland or Venezuela. Some also predict holding the general elections to coincide with the Andalusia elections scheduled for June, where the first vice-president and right-hand woman of Sánchez, María Jesús Montero, faces the worst electoral prospects in the history of the PSOE in that community. Without going any further, the latest polls from Sigma Dos for El Mundo and Gesop for Prensa Ibérica predicted a victory for the PP without reaching an absolute majority and that the PSOE would compete with Vox for second place. A terrible prospect for Ferraz, considering that Andalusia —along with Catalonia— has always been their most important stronghold for conquering Moncloa.
If there were early elections in Spain, Montero could go hand in hand with Sánchez and try to mobilize the left-wing electorate to confront the rise of the right and far-right. This would be after the Castile and León elections on March 15, where the socialist candidate Carlos Martínez is expected to perform better than Pilar Alegría in Aragon and Miguel Ángel Gallardo in Extremadura. "The PSOE does not lose elections because its voters change their vote... but because they stay home," reflects a former socialist leader to exemplify that what the socialists need is to give their voters a reason to go out and vote.
Public opinion in favor
The polls are not going well for Pedro Sánchez and demographics are critical of a significant part of his government's actions, mainly his pacts with the separatists: the amnesty and the new financing model. However, in foreign policy, Pedro Sánchez connects fully with Spanish society. While it is already a prominent issue in the news, Moncloa is striving for it to also be the main topic of debate in domestic politics.
One only needs to look at the latest CIS data, before the war in Iran broke out. 76.5% of Spaniards said they had a "bad or very bad" opinion of Trump. And up to 79.5% believe he is a "danger to world peace". If the framework for an election were Sánchez or Trump or war yes or war no, Moncloa would have a winning narrative. However, relying on international politics for a state election would be the riskiest move in the Sanchista resistance manual. Because the question would be: will the average Spanish citizen go to vote thinking about Trump or about how much it costs them to make ends meet?
