Objective: to make Puigdemont lose his patience

MadridNormally, for the proper development of a country's democratic life, political struggle takes place within representative institutions and political arenas. But one of the characteristics of this legislature is the high level of intervention by judges and courts in political spheres. Sometimes, this participation arises naturally, not forced, from the seriousness of the events and the identity and public responsibilities of the individuals under investigation, as is the case with the case being led by Catarroja judge Nuria Ruiz regarding the DANA tragedy, which resulted in 235 fatalities. Or as is also the case with former Minister of Public Works José Luis Ábalos and his close confidant, Koldo García, a couple whose responsibilities are becoming known every week. But there are other chapters in which a high degree of political and ideological contamination is perceived as a fundamental ingredient of a given judicial intervention, directly linked to the potential effects of a criminal case and a sentence.

It could be said that in some cases, such as the Proceso case, this contamination is quite logical because the decisions taken and the events that occurred represented a challenge to the State, in the form of an attempt at separation. Or it could be added that the politicization of the courts can have more than one side, because sometimes the progressive judges seem to be ahead, and other times the ones who take advantage are those from the conservative sphere. But in cases of contradictory majorities—when a court has a majority of one side, and those of another side predominate in the decisions that must be reviewed by the former—it is best for everyone to know how to stand in their place and respect their respective responsibilities. I fear, however, that this is not what is happening, nor what we may see in the not-too-distant future, in relation to the amnesty law and its application to certain individuals, and very specifically with regard to the leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont.

The TC verdict

There are many who, both inside and outside Catalonia, believe that one of the mistakes of the pro-independence leaders was not realizing, or not sufficiently considering, the solidity of the State and its apparatus, the effectiveness of which was already evident before and after the events of September and October 2017, even if they couldn't find the dates they had acquired. But accepting the logic of institutional retaliation, contrary to a movement to disconnect from the State through procedures outside the provisions of the Constitution, neither justifies nor makes the excesses of the response any more understandable, especially when Parliament has decided to turn the page. I say this because of the scenario that is being foreshadowed by the hypothetical moment in which the Constitutional Court endorses—if it ends up doing so, as is very likely—the amnesty law. We've already had a foretaste of what might happen, a preview, with the controversy between the Seville Court and the guarantee body, which had reduced, to the point of practically canceling, the sentences imposed on the main members of the former Socialist leadership of the Andalusian regional government.

In the legal sphere, the prevailing idea is that the Supreme Court will follow the strategy of the Seville Court and turn to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) to question the application of the amnesty law to Puigdemont and the other people convicted of embezzlement in the case. I don't think that an initiative of this type, if it comes to fruition, would generate more legal discussions than political ones. Both in the Parliament and in many judicial circles, it is believed that a move of this kind must be interpreted within the context of the main key issues of the current legislature, where the votes of the pro-independence parties—and particularly those of Junts, the group led by Puigdemont—are particularly important for the Socialists, as they seek to consolidate a precarious parliamentary majority. Those who view things this way emphasize that another essential element of the aforementioned key issues is the strong pressure on Junts to abandon its support for Pedro Sánchez's government and facilitate its downfall or the calling of early elections. A Socialist MP expressed this to me a few days ago, saying that "what it's all about is for Puigdemont to lose patience and decide to withdraw his support." Those who, like this MP, analyze from this perspective do not shy away from adding that raising a preliminary ruling on the application of the amnesty law before the Court of Justice of the EU could take one or two years to process. It would therefore be possible for the legislature to end—if it does, that would be in 2027—and the aforementioned law would still be hanging by a thread, without having been fully implemented.

If anyone thinks that pressure of all kinds and origins to facilitate the end of "Sanchismo" and political alternation in Spain is concentrated only on the pro-independence groups, it's because they're not looking closely at the political and judicial calendar. I imagine Puigdemont's complaints every time he meets with his Socialist interlocutors. And what they will reply, in the sense that they have done their part by approving the amnesty law, making "a virtue out of necessity," as Pedro Sánchez said. But to this approach, they could add, among other things, the criminal prosecution of the Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, and the investigation into the brother or wife of the Socialist leader, Begoña Gómez, which just resulted in two hours of questioning by the Minister of the Presidency and Justice, Félix Bolaños. The subject of this testimony was the hiring of an advisor who allegedly helped Begoña Gómez in her professional activities in a chair at the Complutense University that never had to be created. Sánchez took five days of leave at the start of that investigation. And he didn't resign. Puigdemont has surely been mulling over his situation for many more than five. For Sant Jordi and Book Day, the Socialists should at least give him a resistance manual.