A new stain on Pedro Sánchez's record

BarcelonaExcluding Catalonia from the equation, the last Socialist electoral victory dates back to May 28, 2023. At that time, despite losing popular support, the PSOE came in first in the regional elections in Castilla-La Mancha, Asturias, the Canary Islands, and Extremadura, although it failed to form a government in the latter two. Adding the two recent victories in Catalonia, in 2024 and 2021, the balance for the last six years is 6 electoral victories and 21 defeats, counting general, regional, and European elections. How is it possible that, despite this disastrous electoral cycle, Sánchez remains in La Moncloa and is about to surpass José María Aznar as the second longest-serving president in the history of Spanish democracy?

It wasn't always like this. Spanish politics moves through electoral cycles, and despite the specific characteristics of each election, some parties often ride with the wind at their backs. This has been the case in recent years for the PP and, above all, for Vox, but Sánchez had also been able to take advantage of this before, thanks to his arrival at La Moncloa: the PSOE ousted Mariano Rajoy in 2018 with a successful vote of no confidence. That same year, there were elections in Andalusia, and the Socialists lost 14 seats and the government they had held since 1982, but they came in first at the polls. Between 2018 and 2019, the PSOE's record was 15 victories (some without the reward of governing) and 4 defeats, only two of them at the hands of the PP in the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

On the tightrope

Pedro Sánchez's resilience cannot be explained without the audacity—and the risk—of his decisions. Probably the most notable was calling early elections the day after the 2023 municipal and regional elections. The results demonstrated the changing of the political landscape, but also showed that the People's Party (PP) was not the one benefiting most from it; that advantage now rested with the far right. It is precisely this inevitable alliance between the PP and Vox that the Socialists are clinging to in an attempt to mobilize their electorate and that of the rest of the left when the time comes for the general elections. For now, however, Aragon becomes yet another stain on Sánchez's record, as Extremadura was a few weeks ago, and as Castile and León and Andalusia will foreseeably be in the coming months. His government presents itself as "the most progressive in history" and "the greatest counterweight on the far right" worldwideHowever, defeat after defeat doesn't seem to be enough for the Spanish people. And yet, he still has a chance if he strengthens the multinational alliances that have kept him in power for the last eight years. That's why Sánchez has one last ace up his sleeve. to avoid losing their support: convince them that without it they will never be able to get their demands met.