Nearly six points less turnout by 2 p.m. in the Extremadura elections: who could be harmed?

MadridExtremadura kicks off a new electoral cycle. After eighteen months without going to the polls, the early elections Called by President María Guardiola (PP) – due to the impossibility of reaching an agreement with Vox on the regional budget – these will be the first in a new series of elections that will once again test the strength of the PP and PSOE. They will be followed by those in Aragon – which They will be on February 8th—, those in Castile and León —likely on March 15, the deadline for holding them— and those in Andalusia —which should be in June—. In fact, Alberto Núñez Feijóo presented the elections on Tuesday as the "first stage" of a "domino effect" that he hopes will be completed in the coming months. "Whatever is decided on December 21 will mark Spain in the coming years"," he had proclaimed on the first morning of the campaign. For now, the first piece of data we have from the Extremadura elections is voter turnout: by 2:00 PM, in the first five hours, 35.76% of registered voters had cast their ballots, which is 5.89 points less than in 2023.

One of the key factors is that turnout is falling more sharply in Badajoz, the stronghold where the PSOE has historically been strongest. There is approximately a three-point difference between the PSOE and the PP in both provinces: in favor of the Socialists in Badajoz and, conversely, in favor of the Popular Party in Cáceres. Further back, in 2015, the PSOE won by 7.4 points in Badajoz, but the PP was slightly the most voted party in Cáceres, and the difference with the PP has been consistently more pronounced in Badajoz. Thus, an initial analysis of voter turnout could indicate that the areas with Those with deeper socialist roots have mobilized less.

In the last elections – the drubbing suffered by the Socialists in the regional and municipal elections led to the early general elections being called for June 23 – the PP and PSOE tied with 28 seats each, but the Socialists – led by Guillermo Fernández Vara, who He died two and a half months ago.– They won by 7,000 votes. However, María Guardiola He ended up allying himself with Vox. –after having assured that she would not allow them to enter the government– to become the second PP president of the region in 42 years of autonomy.

The PP wants to send a "very clear message" to Sánchez

The People's Party (PP) is optimistic about this election. In an informal conversation with journalists on Friday, Alberto Núñez Feijóo expressed his confidence in gaining ten points more than the Socialist Party (PSOE) and that the ballot boxes will send a "very clear message" to Pedro Sánchez. The PP believes that it is not only Miguel Ángel Gallardo—the PSOE candidate—who is being put to the test. He will go to trial for malfeasance and influence peddling. along with the Spanish president's brother for the creation of his job at the Badajoz Provincial Council—but also Sánchez. "It's PSOE territory, if you subtract 10 points, and it has significant implications for Sánchez," reflected the PP leader.

And Extremadura is a historically socialist region where the Spanish president will be put to the test after the scandals that have surrounded him in recent months: the alleged cases of corruptionwhich have led to Santos Cerdán spending five months in Soto del Real prison, where José Luis Ábalos and Koldo García have been imprisoned for a month now, and the harassment complaints against Paco Salazar and other local PSOE leaders. Furthermore, the results will serve as a barometer to see to what extent Feijóo's future is tied to Vox, considering that this is a region where Santiago Abascal's party has less strength than in other regions. The national leader, in fact, focused his efforts on the campaign to try to win over the rural vote.

Genoa's predictions are that the only party to lose ground will be the PSOE, that the PP will surpass 40% of the vote, and that the right wing will reach 53%, something "unprecedented." They believe Vox will hover around 12% and win between eight and nine seats. Their goal is to obtain more votes than the entire left wing, represented by the PSOE and Unidas por Extremadura—the coalition of Podemos, Izquierda Unida, and Alianza Verde with Irene de Miguel as their candidate.

The PP stirs up suspicions of election fraud

The final days of the election campaign have been marred by the theft of 124 ballots from a post office in Fuente de Cantos, a town of 4,500 inhabitants in the province of Badajoz. Although the Civil Guard concluded it was an act of "common crime," the People's Party (PP) spent 48 hours spreading suspicion about the electoral processThe most forceful was María Guardiola on Thursday after the news broke: "They are stealing our democracy before our very eyes. Someone wants to deny the people of Extremadura the right to decide. They want to silence us and choose for us," she denounced in a video.

The stolen safe was found hours later "completely burned out," with the ballots scattered around and no trace of the €14,000 the thieves had taken. However, the PP candidate later insisted that democracy "is in danger" and even went so far as to say that "It doesn't matter which ones they are" The conclusions of the Civil Guard.

From Vox, Santiago Abascal lashed out against a "corrupt mafia" that he considered "capable of anything, even altering electoral processes." In contrast, on behalf of the Spanish government, Minister Óscar López reproached Guardiola for fueling "ridiculous conspiracy theories." "It would be ridiculous, pathetic, extremely serious, if Feijóo's People's Party had joined in far-right conspiracy theories," added the leader of the Madrid PSOE.