"It will leave its mark in Spain in the coming years": PP and PSOE are gambling everything in Extremadura

MadridAfter eighteen months without elections in Spain, the start this Friday of the campaign for the Extremadura elections on December 21 marks the beginning of a new electoral cycle. The last elections were the European elections on June 9, 2014, and at that time, their results—the PP won by four points over the PSOE and more than twenty over Vox—were interpreted as a plebiscite on the national leaders.Both Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Pedro Sánchez managed to salvage the situation.The election in Extremadura has the same implications and will be interpreted as the first prelude to the upcoming Spanish elections. This time, the PP leader faces a new test with the far right on the rise, while the PSOE leader is more cornered by the legal cases against his inner circle and by internal scandals. What is at stake for each side?

"What is decided on December 21st will shape the coming years for Spain," Feijóo proclaimed at an event in Casar de Cáceres on the first morning of the campaign. The PP president is maintaining a parallel schedule to that of the party's candidate, María Guardiola, who called early elections With the aspiration of retaining power and freeing himself from dependence on Vox, all polls point to his victory, but at the same time predict growth for Santiago Abascal's party, which would still be necessary for the conservatives to govern. This would undermine the goal of not being subjugated, and if this scenario ultimately unfolds, it will force Guardiola, one of the PP's regional leaders furthest removed from Vox, to follow the path taken by her party in the Valencian Community, with significant ideological concessions that, for the moment, she has refused to make due to a lack of support. Extremadura, a historically socialist territory where Vox has less strength than in other regions like Castile and León or Murcia, will serve as a barometer for Feijóo to see to what extent his future is tied to the far right. "We are facing a historic moment for Spain," insisted the Popular Party leader, who argued that the regional elections will not only determine a party, but also "a model of government." He referred to either a "stable" model, suggesting a single-party government led by Guardiola without dependencies, which is what he would prefer for himself in La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence), or a "blocking" model, which he said is what the rest of the parliamentary parties aspire to. The result in Extremadura will also be significant. the prospects for the next elections in autonomous communities governed by the PP and planned for 2026 (Castilla y León and Andalusia, with the question of whether Aragón will also join, as it, like Extremadura, has not yet managed to approve its budget).

The December 21st elections will also test Sánchez's resilience. At the national level, Guardiola's move is also explained by the PP's desire to weaken the Spanish Prime Minister in a region that exemplifies his precarious situation due to the legal battles he faces. The PSOE candidate in Extremadura, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, will have to appear in court next May, along with the Socialist leader's brother, David Sánchez. The case concerns malfeasance and influence peddling in the hiring of David Sánchez at the Badajoz Provincial Council, when Gallardo was president. This erosion adds to other challenges, such as the alleged corruption case involving former Socialist Party organization secretaries José Luis Ábalos and Santos Cerdán, or the PSOE's questionable handling of sexual harassment allegations against another former party leader and Sánchez's most trusted confidant, Paco Salazar.

The Socialist leader clings to a long-standing strategy: fear of the far right. He also faces the management crises of the Popular Party governments – in a pre-campaign event this Thursday in Plasència he used the Torrejón de Ardoz Hospital scandal—and also the comeback effect the PSOE has experienced in some of the recent elections. "Election campaigns test us," he argued at the same rally. In this context, the PSOE's result will serve as an indication of the extent to which the brand has been eroded in recent months and the benefit Sánchez can gain from positioning himself as the only alternative to Vox.

Abascal is going all out.

The Vox leader has been campaigning in Extremadura for weeks, hoping to capitalize on the growth prospects predicted by the polls. A strong showing there, consolidating their position and making them a decisive force once again, would strengthen Abascal's party's influence over the People's Party (PP). In contrast to the agreement reached in the Valencian Community, Vox is launching a harsh attack against Guardiola and the "endemic problem of the two-party system," lumping the PP and the Socialists together. The fact that the far-right's strategy is national in scope is evident in the fact that their candidate, Óscar Fernández, is virtually unknown—"I don't even know his name," quipped Feijóo, who has called him a "puppet"—while Abascal is the public face of the campaign.

The opportunity for Podemos

"We have moderately good expectations," say sources within Podemos, who hope to capitalize on the "weakness" of the Socialist candidate. The left-wing political space sees opportunities to reverse the downward trend of the previous election cycle with a coalition that excludes Movimiento Sumar, Yolanda Díaz's party. This coalition is led by Irene de Miguel, who was already a candidate in 2023 and is an "undisputed figure" within Podemos. If the alliance between Podemos and Izquierda Unida (United Left) is successful, Podemos will have another argument in the national debate on alliances to assert that the Sumar formula "doesn't work" and needs to be superseded.