The PP wins in Extremadura, but is left in the hands of a surging Vox.

MadridThe first round of the new electoral cycle leaves Alberto Núñez Feijóo still tied to Vox, Pedro Sánchez weakened, and Santiago Abascal catapulted to power. The people of Extremadura went to the polls after eighteen months without national elections and sent a message that could have echo in Spanish politics and repercussions in the upcoming elections – in the coming months there will be elections in AragonCastile and León and Andalusia—. Although they were regional elections, the PSOE was taking a gamble after the latest cases of alleged corruption and the cascade of sexual harassment allegationsHe pinned all his hopes on Miguel Ángel Gallardo, a candidate who will go to trial alongside the Spanish president's brother, and the defeat has been resounding. An "unmitigated" defeat and "very adverse" results, as he himself acknowledged. However, the PP's victory—its second triumph in Extremadura elections in 43 years—is bittersweet: María Guardiola is nearing an absolute majority, but gains only one seat after the early election The victory was triggered by Vox's rejection of the budget and continues to depend on the far right, which doubled its vote share. However, the party leadership in Madrid is presenting the victory as a "landrending victory for the ages."

The Socialists have suffered an undeniable defeat in one of their main historical strongholds. The PSOE fell below 30 seats for the first time two years ago—although it was the most voted party—and now the disaster has been compounded with a catastrophic result: 18 seats, 25.7% of the vote, and a drop of 14.2 points. On June 23, Extremadura was one of the five autonomous communities where Sánchez outperformed Feijóo, and Badajoz and Cáceres were two of the ten provinces where the PSOE received more votes than the PP. However, that support has now evaporated, and the PSOE trailed the PP by 17 points. Furthermore, the combined vote for the PP and Vox reached 60%.

The PP fails to distance itself from Vox

María Guardiola has improved on the 2023 results, but remains heavily dependent on Vox, which has more than doubled its results: from 5 to 11 seats and from 8% of the vote to 16.9%. The snap election was triggered because the far-right party derailed the regional budgets two months ago, and after the referendum, Vox will hold the key to the stability of the legislature. This was Feijóo's strategy, who advocates calling elections if Vox blocks two consecutive budgets—as has happened in Extremadura and Aragon. Guardiola took the step following the dictates of the People's Party (PP) headquarters in Madrid, but will still need Santiago Abascal's approval. Nevertheless, the PP is proud of having surpassed 40% of the vote—the 44% they obtained is their second-best result ever—and widening the gap with the Socialist Party (PSOE). They also aimed for 30 seats, but fell just short.

Be that as it may, the PP's public perception is one of euphoria. Sources close to Feijóo are celebrating that governing is now "easier" and that dependence on the far right is "lower" because the investiture only requires an abstention from Vox in the second round. They conveniently forget, however, that they will again need the far right if they want to pass a budget. "We have turned Andalusia and Extremadura into right-wing strongholds; this government is a machine for manufacturing voters dissatisfied with the left," these same sources emphasize.

Meanwhile, faced with Vox's rise, the PSOE is taking the opportunity to attack the Popular Party. The Socialists accuse Feijóo of "sowing the seeds" for the far right: "We have seen that the PP is back to square one, but even more beholden to the extremists," declared the PSOE's organizational secretary, Rebeca Torró, this Sunday in a brief appearance without taking questions. Miguel Ángel Gallardo had lit the fuse, arguing that the "experiment" Feijóo "entrusted" to Guardiola to achieve an absolute majority "has failed spectacularly."

Finally, the elections also deliver a verdict on the role of the left to the left of the PSOEFor the first time since the debacle between Sumar and Podemos, and after three elections running separately, Unidas por Extremadura—the coalition of Podemos, Izquierda Unida, and Alianza Verde, which had the support of Yolanda Díaz—has improved upon its recent results, increasing its representation from 4 to 7 seats, a growth of almost 4 percentage points. Sumar considers the election results "worrying" and hopes they will serve as a "call to action" that will urge Sánchez to "activate" the progressive majority. Podemos goes even further, lamenting the "impotence" of the PSOE and accusing the Socialists of having become a "factory of the far right."

Participation falls 7.5 points

Throughout the day, the preliminary voter turnout figures hinted at the likely outcome. At both 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM, turnout plummeted, falling more sharply in Badajoz than in Cáceres. This was telling: in 2023, the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) won in Badajoz while the PP (People's Party) won in Cáceres, and historically, the PSOE has consistently performed better in Badajoz, with the margin of victory over the PP always being more pronounced there. Once the polls opened, these suspicions were confirmed: turnout was 62.7%, seven and a half points lower than in 2023. The socialists were the ones who suffered most from the low turnout.