No to independence still ahead despite pro-independence parties majority on February 14

BarcelonaNever before had pro-independence parties exceeded 50% in an election. The 14-F consolidated ERC, Junts and CUP's absolute majority in Parliament and allowed them to continue governing, despite the low turnout (the lowest in a Catalan election). This result, however, has no direct translation to a possible referendum on self-determination: 48.7% of Catalans are against independence, against 44.9% in favour, according to a survey by Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) published on Friday. The figures are, more or less, the same as they have been since July 2019, when no was again ahead of yes (between October 2017 and July 2019 yes was majoritarian).

Nor has the support for a referendum of self-determination changed substantially. Three out of four respondents (75.1%) believe that the Catalans have the right to decide their future in a referendum. This is now the priority of the new government headed by Pere Aragonès, which has set itself the goal of convincing the Spanish government that this is the best possible way out of the political conflict. This is what the voters of the two parties that form part of the state executive think, among others: 53.5% socialist voters and 86.1% En Comú supporters.

Maximum distrust in politics

Three years of coalition partners openly fighting each other and three months of negotiations to form a new one are not the best letter of introduction for Aragonès's government. Junts' parliamentary group leader, Albert Batet, already pointed out that as expectations are low the Generalitat can only give positive surprises. At the moment citizens' valuation stands at 3.39 out of ten, the lowest mark ever registered by CEO. In October 2017, for example, it was 4.73, due to the great satisfaction of pro-independence citizens after the referendum (7.4), but since then it is precisely pro-independence citizens who have been moving further and further away from the Generalitat and today they give it a 4.36 (2.4 among non-independence voters).

Mistrust of politicians goes beyond the assessment of the Generalitat and affects the entire political class. Confidence in Catalan politicians is marked with a 3.36 and the score is even lower when asked for an assessment respecting Spanish politicians (2.66).

But perhaps the data that most worries the political class is the one that measures "the current political situation in Catalonia". 86.2% of Catalans consider it to be bad or very bad and this is a record figure that has not stopped rising since March 2016, when it then already registered a worrying 58.6%. Today only 6.1% of citizens believe that the political situation is good or very good. The positive note is that at least 31% are optimistic about the future (39.8% believe the situation will be the same a year from now and 20.1% that it will be even worse).