From the DGAIA to swine fever: have the crises taken their toll on Salvador Illa?

BarcelonaSalvador Illa will end the year with the swine fever crisis still lingering, but having emerged almost unscathed from Wednesday's appearance in Parliament to explain his handling of the situation. It's not the first crisis the government has had to manage in its nearly year and a half in office, but so far the Socialists have emerged relatively unscathed. Illa hasn't suffered from surviving this first year without a budget and with the 2026 budget still up in the air, nor from some of the crises the government has had to face and is still grappling with, such as the commuter rail debacle. At least, that's what the polls are currently showing.

The latest data from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), published in November, shows that, far from weakening, the government's approval rating has improved slightly since November 2014 – three months after Isla took the reins of the executive branch – rising from 4 out of 4 last November, although this score has stagnated compared to June. It doesn't reach a passing grade, but it scores higher than the previous Junts and ERC governments, which, since June 2018, had not exceeded 4.4. Furthermore, 63% of those surveyed approve of the Socialist government's performance. In fact, Salvador Illa is by far the preferred political leader to be president of the Generalitat: 21% of those surveyed want him, well ahead of Carles Puigdemont (8%), Silvia Orriols (8%), Oriol Junqueras (7%), and Gabriel Rufián (4%), the names respondents preferred in their last-minute response. These indicators, however, are not yet translating into greater electoral support: although Illa won 42 seats, the CEO himself predicts he will... to be the leading force with a slight setbackbetween 38 and 40 seats.

Although the Catalan government, according to the CEO, is not currently suffering from any wear and tear, this does not mean that Salvador Illa has not faced a growing number of crises in recent months. The swine fever outbreak is the latest crisis to erupt for the executive branch, and the president addressed it in the Catalan Parliament this week. In fact, this has been a pattern the government has followed in recent months: Illa has explained debacles such as the commuter rail crisis to the Catalan Parliament. Indeed, the Parliament censured the Minister of Territory and spokesperson for the Catalan government, Sílvia Paneque. Illa has taken responsibility for this crisis, but he has also looked back to blame previous Catalan administrations and pointed the finger at Madrid to highlight the disinvestment by the Spanish national government, especially those of the People's Party (PP).

In the first months of the legislature, aside from the worsening chaos on the commuter rail network, Salvador Illa's government also faced a crisis due to the malfunctioning of the Directorate General for Child and Adolescent Care (DGAIA), which culminated in a restructuring of the agency following reports that, for example, the DGAIA had maintained fictitious positions to falsify aid for young people leaving the state's care. Illa removed the DGAIA's authority to contract for placements in residential centers for minors and also to process the benefits received by young people in state care. In managing this crisis, and under pressure from the opposition, the president also looked back and pointed the finger at the previous administrations of Junts and ERC. "I have no interest in looking back and pointing fingers, but of the last fifteen years of government, you have been in power for twelve. To pretend that what happens at the DGAIA has nothing to do with your actions in government... well," he snapped at the members of parliament during a speech in the Catalan Parliament.

The teachers' strike

Beyond the crises Isla had to face in the first months of the legislature, others have arisen in recent weeks. Just last week, teachers announced a strike for February. The unions are demanding pay raises, a demand that was also the focus of the massive demonstration on November 15th, and accuse the regional education ministry, headed by Esther Niubó, of failing to put forward any proposals to reduce class sizes, increase the number of teachers, or cut red tape—all of which are among their demands. This protest comes on top of the crisis this summer stemming from the chaos caused by problems in the allocation of teaching positions. Niubó ended up dismissing the department's Deputy Director General of Staffing, Provisions, and Payroll, Enric Trens. The error in this allocation resulted in the cancellation of 57,000 positions and affected 2,898 teachers.

In fact, Salvador Illa has already witnessed doctors going on strike, although in this case to protest the new framework statute being negotiated by the Ministry of Health, which regulates the working conditions of healthcare professionals in Spain. In Catalonia, the protest had little support: according to the Catalan Health Department, it was 7%, while the Doctors of Catalonia (Metges de Catalunya) put the figure at 45%. On the same day, taxi drivers also went on strike, in a protest that was not unified, to defend the new taxi law being processed in the Catalan Parliament, given the opposition shown by platforms like Uber.

According to the CEO, only voters of the PSC, ERC, and Comuns approve of the Socialist government. And it is precisely the voters of Oriol Junqueras and Jéssica Albiach whom Illa has promised to appease by fulfilling the investiture agreements. The possibility of issues such as the new financing model materializing is crucial for next year's budget and the consolidation of the legislature. Isla has already survived the first year without a budget – approving three supplementary credits with ERC and Comuns – and, despite pressure from the opposition led by Junts, the fact that parliamentary arithmetic prevents an alternative is giving the Government some breathing room.