Junts and Aliança Catalana would tie for third place in an election, according to the CEO

The far right continues its rise in Catalonia: Aliança Catalana would climb to 19-20 seats and tie with Junts (19-20) for third place, according to the latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). The poll also indicates that the PSC remains in first place, but is stagnating (38-40), in fact, it would lose two seats compared to the last barometer published in July. ERC, for its part, is gaining ground and would become the second largest party (22-23), ahead of Junts. The upward trend of the far right would also be reflected in Vox (13-14) making overtaking in the PP (12-13). Comunes would remain at 6 seats, as would the CUP, between 3-4.

The barometer was compiled between October 13 and November 11. It was during this period that Junts decided to break with the Spanish government and enter the opposition. The drop in Junts' representation in this barometer, of around ten seats, is mainly due to the exodus of voters to Aliança Catalana, specifically a 21% decrease. "Only 55% today say they would continue to vote for Junts," noted the CEO's director, Joan Rodríguez Teruel, who emphasized the decline in Junts' voter loyalty. In the case of Vox, its growth is at the expense of the PP: 10% of voters now prefer Ignacio Garriga's party. Regarding the upward trend for both Aliança and Vox, Teruel highlighted that the voters of both parties "are becoming increasingly similar," and that Sílvia Orriols' party is gaining ground on Vox regarding immigration: "There are people concerned about this issue who are leaving Vox and moving towards Aliança Catalana." As for the Congress, the PSC would win the elections again in Catalonia (19-20 seats), relatively increasing its representation compared to the July barometer, and Esquerra would remain the second largest party (9-10 seats), also gaining one or two seats. Junts, on the other hand, would remain in third place, but with a lower representation (5-6 seats), tying with the PP and Vox with the same number of deputies. Sumar would suffer a drop of four seats, ending up with three, while Podemos would not obtain any representation.

Leader assessment

The president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, remains the highest-rated Catalan political leader. The PSC leader scores 4.9, ahead of Oriol Junqueras, president of ERC, who scores 4.7, and the leader of the Comuns in the Catalan Parliament, Jéssica Albiach, completes the top three with 4.3. The leader of Aliança Catalana, Silvia Orriols, comes in fourth place with 3.8, tied with CUP deputy Pilar Castillejo, and ahead of Carles Puigdemont, with 3.5. The ranking is completed by the leader of the PP, Alejandro Fernández, with 2.8, and the leader of Vox, Ignacio Garriga, who scores 2. As for national leaders, the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, is the highest-rated, although he still does not pass, scoring 4.5. Next is the leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz (4.2). The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo (2.3), and the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal (1.8), bring up the rear.

Main problems

Housing remains the primary concern for citizens (31%), followed by immigration (11%) and public safety (9%). Voters from all political parties identify access to housing as the main current problem, except for those of Aliança Catalana and Vox, who cite immigration. Voters of Ignacio Garriga's party also rank public safety as their second most pressing issue, while those of Silvia Orriols prioritize access to housing.