Aragon gauges the reach of the conservative wave
The rise of Vox is worrying the PP, which had hoped to strengthen itself with the early elections.
BarcelonaAragon goes to the polls this Sunday for the first time in early elections, not coinciding with other elections, but there is very little doubt about the outcome. The conservative majority (PP+Vox+PAR), which currently holds 36 of the 67 seats, is expected to rise above 40, in line with the conservative wave sweeping Spain, but which, as was already evident in Extremadura, primarily benefits the far right. There is also no doubt that the PP will be the leading party and that, therefore, Jorge Azcón is the most likely candidate to be re-elected president. However, in the final days of the campaign, Azcón has appeared tense and agitated, particularly raising his voice against Vox. Why? Because, like María Guardiola before him, he called early elections to overcome Vox's obstruction of the budget, and now everything suggests that he will be even more hamstrung by Santiago Abascal's party. In short, a move designed to strengthen the PP may end up strengthening Vox and complicating life for the Aragonese president.
The causes of the conservative wave in Aragon are somewhat different from those in other parts of Spain. Here, there is an atmosphere of economic euphoria, primarily due to the multi-billion euro investment announcements from major technology companies, which the People's Party (PP) clearly capitalizes on, although the underlying reasons for this success are, at least, shared with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). The prevailing climate resembles the economic frenzy in Valencia during the real estate boom, which sustained seemingly unbreakable PP majorities. The left, as was the case there, is now seen as those who want to throw a wrench in the works of economic progress, which in Aragon is equated with large-scale wind and solar energy projects and, above all, data centers. The problem for the PP is that a segment of the population that feels slighted and does not share the general euphoria—primarily those living outside Zaragoza and working in the agricultural sector—seems ready to switch to Vox.
The PSOE is basically resigned and accepts that it will have its worst result ever in Aragon, but Pilar Alegría's leadership doesn't seem to be in danger. The Moncloa Palace's argument is that there is now a global conservative wave that won't begin to subside until... midterm November's Americans. However, it will be confirmed once again that Pedro Sánchez's hyper-leadership, the only one capable of rousing the bulk of progressive voters from their couches, swept away a territorial structure that was once formidable. His hope is that Vox will make Azcón suffer as much as it is doing to Guardiola, and that it will be demonstrated that PP-Vox coalition governments are unstable. The clashes between the two parties in the final stretch of the campaign seem to support this thesis.
Flat campaign
In this context, the campaign in Aragon was rather lackluster, and the one who did the most to try and raise the temperature was Azcón, with direct insults to Alegría and barbs aimed at Vox, which only served to highlight the nervousness within the Popular Party ranks. The only noteworthy incident involved a PP councilwoman from a Valencian town who crashed a PSOE rally to call Pedro Sánchez a "son of a bitch." The episode greatly annoyed the Aragonese Popular Party members, since the climate of ideological polarization seen in other regions, such as Madrid or Valencia, doesn't exist there. The Aragonese character is different.
The election results will confirm the winds of political change blowing across Spain (this is bad news for Pedro Sánchez), but they will also highlight the PP's dependence on Vox, which is the main card the Socialists will play in a general election. Therefore, barring any major surprises, the PP will wake up the day after the elections with the same problem it had before calling them, but worse. A colossal toad called Vox.
