This is how China is affected by the attack on Venezuela: a multimillion-dollar debt that it will not collect.

BeijingChina has unequivocally condemned the United States' intervention in Venezuela and called for the immediate release of Nicolás Maduro. Unlike the European Union, it has been direct in accusing Donald Trump of violating international law and the principles of the UN Charter. It remains to be seen whether, beyond the statements of its president, Xi Jinping, it will take any further steps in a conflict where it has little room to maneuver.

The kidnapping of Maduro and Trump's desire to control Venezuela and its oil send a strong message to China: Washington will not allow the Asian giant to continue increasing its influence in the region.

Beijing has been investing in Latin America for decades and is weaving a dense network of trade alliances with different countries, regardless of whether their governments are right-wing or left-wing. Venezuela is one of its main allies in Latin America, as evidenced by the 2023 declaration of a "strategic partnership" signed by Xi Jinping and Maduro.

Hours before his capture, Maduro had received Qiu Xiaoqi, the Chinese government's special envoy for Latin American affairs, at the Miraflores presidential palace. This meeting seems to demonstrate that Beijing was unaware of Trump's plans.

The US intervention leaves a complex scenario for Beijing. China is the main buyer of Venezuelan oil; practically 80% of its exports were destined for that country. However, for Beijing, they only represent 4% of its total crude oil imports. China's problem will not be so much access to Venezuelan oil as how to collect the immense debt incurred by that country.

The Venezuelan debt

Beijing had been financing the Chavista regime with oil-backed loans, even though Chinese investment had cooled in recent years due to declining production and the country's internal crisis. In 2024, direct investment from the Asian giant in Venezuela fell to one-tenth of what it was in 2018, according to data published by the Chinese government itself. Despite the lack of transparency in relations between the two countries, Venezuela's debt to China was estimated to have exceeded $10 billion in 2024. Some sources, such as Forbes They even double that figure. Maduro's fall is generating a lot of uncertainty among Chinese financial institutions, especially if Trump's intentions to control the country are confirmed. In that case, US creditors will have priority over Chinese ones.

The official newspaper Global Times In one of its editorials, it asserts that the impact of US intervention in China will be "minimal" in the short term, but in the long run, US control over one of the world's largest oil reserves could lead to "manipulation" of global crude oil prices.

The US message is clear: it does not want China to extend its reach in the region, which it considers part of its sphere of influence. This is not the first warning. Trump already threatened to reclaim control of the Panama Canal because China was increasingly dominating this infrastructure. The coercion bore fruit: the new president of Panama has announced that the country will not participate in the initiative to create trade corridors known as the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Chinese company that operates both ports of access to the Canal is negotiating its sale.

China in Latin America

Despite Washington's belligerent attitude, it will be difficult to reverse China's advance in Latin America. For more than two decades, Beijing has been strengthening trade ties and investments in the region. It has become Latin America's second-largest trading partner, with trade reaching $518.47 billion in 2024, signing free trade agreements with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica. China has invested in infrastructure, car factories, solar panels, and more. Furthermore, it has become an alternative for the region's agricultural, mining, and manufactured goods in the face of the tariff war imposed by Trump. Most countries are tightening relations with Beijing, especially Brazil, but even the Argentine president, Javier Milei, has yielded to Xi Jinping. Washington's intervention in Venezuela leaves other fronts open, as Donald Trump has reiterated his interest in controlling Greenland to defend US interests. So far, Chinese investment on the island is scarce, and many mining and infrastructure projects have been halted due to environmental concerns. But the Arctic and the opening of new trade routes are a priority for China, which is counting on climate change and its alliance with Russia to connect its ports with those in Europe and Canada. In China, the US intervention in Venezuela has been criticized, but it has also been seen as an example to follow. Similar operations to annex Taiwan and capture its pro-independence president are being discussed on Chinese social media. Beyond the highly manipulated Chinese public opinion, the reality is that Trump's actions in disregarding international consensus and intervening militarily in a country leave room for Xi Jinping to consolidate his position as the leader of the Global South and of multilateralism. Xi Jinping's stature may grow as an example of stability in the face of Trump's behavior. On the other hand, the advocacy of a new world order based on force and spheres of influence has also raised alarms in Japan and South Korea about a potential future withdrawal of the United States.