The battles that 29-N hides in Catalonia

BarcelonaCatalonia, as it happened in 2019, will once again be a key territory ahead of the next general elections. Three years ago, the socialists managed to retain the Spanish government thanks, essentially, to how the Catalan electorate voted, where the PSC won the elections. Looking ahead to November 29th, all the polls predict another victory for the candidacy that will this time be led by Jordi Hereu, but without it being as dazzling as it was three years ago. ERC, for example, is the party that comes closest to it, while the Comuns would collapse, and the left would be condemned to lose representatives. The electoral race until November 29th will bring to the surface the disputes in a Catalan context that are not cut from the same pattern as the state ones.

PSC vs. ERC: struggle between allies

Since Pedro Sánchez called for elections, it has become clear that the paradigm of these polls will be based on the left-right axis, and this is where the battle that ERC and the PSC have maintained over the last decade – especially in the metropolitan area – takes even more shape. Despite the alliance in the Government of the Generalitat and the government pacts in various city councils, both parties are trying to fish in a part of the electorate they share. And this is visualized above all in a general election. According to the latest barometer from the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), the socialists have a vote leak of up to 11% towards ERC. On the other hand, this leak is reduced within the republican ranks: 8% of those surveyed would opt for the PSC ballot.

The socialists will once again use calls for the useful vote in the face of the possibility that the right and the extreme right reach the Spanish government. Therefore, for ERC, the main challenge is to counteract these proclamations. And here the republicans rely on much of their success on their candidate, Gabriel Rufián. The republican leader is one of the best rated in the polls and draws the youngest left-wing vote. A profile that contrasts with that of Jordi Hereu, former socialist mayor of Barcelona. The electoral perspectives of the PSC, however, will be tied to the strength that Pedro Sánchez may end up having in the State.

ERC vs. Comuns: the divorce of the left

Comuns is the one with the least loyal vote and the one for which polls predict a more pronounced decline. With Ada Colau as number one for Barcelona –and a candidate for the State presidency– and Ernest Urtasun as number two, Comuns is running under the Front Ampli brand after the divorce with Podemos and the failure of an alliance with Gabriel Rufián. In fact, this is one of the battles of this campaign, the one that Colau and Rufián will maintain. In these first days of the pre-campaign, the former mayor of Barcelona already lashed out against the republican leader for having decided to sign an alliance solely with Podemos for November 29th. Rufián, however, at the first joint event with Montero in Barcelona, in Nou Barris, stood as the left-wing alternative: "The front is us".

With the Rufián-Montero alliance, the republicans will also try to woo the voters who until now had opted for Sumar. According to the latest CEO, Comuns is losing its main pool of votes to ERC (24%), ahead of the PSC (14%). And this is where Oriol Junqueras' party aspires to make a breakthrough. In fact, Comuns would also lose 19% of votes to Podemos, and the purple party is not running this November 29th after allying with ERC. However, historically the PSC and Comuns have also maintained their particular battle, although in general elections the socialists have taken the lion's share of the pie, except when the purple party won the elections in 2015 and 2016 with Xavier Domènech at the helm.

Junts vs. ERC: intimate pro-independence enemies

The voting border that Junts and ERC have had in recent years, especially during the 'Procés', has been narrowing as Catalonia has positioned itself in the post-'Procés' era. According to the same CEO data, the 'juntaires' have a leakage of 9% of their votes towards the republicans, the highest percentage if we take the data related to Congressional elections. Conversely, the republicans would lose 5% of their votes to Carles Puigdemont's party.

In other words, the data show that for some time now the national axis has taken a backseat. However, this does not mean that the struggle between 'juntaires' and republicans no longer exists. In fact, the animosity between their candidates, Míriam Nogueras and Gabriel Rufián, remains. Both formations are, however, settled in the negotiating paradigm with the State, and the only race they can compete in is who manages to exhibit more gains before the independence movement. Right now, demoscopy does not reflect that this could be a determining element when it comes to tipping the balance for an pro-independence voter, but rather that the left-right axis is what will prevail.

Junts and Vox vs. Aliança: the opportunity that Orriols offers them

Aliança Catalana is not running in the November 29th elections, but some of its voters are willing to go to the polls. And here, Junts and Vox are the main parties that will compete for their electorate, if we take into account the data from the latest CEO. There is 23% of respondents who declare themselves Aliança voters who would lean towards Junts on November 29th, while 22% would vote for Vox. The 'juntaires' are aware that right now their main loss of votes, in an election to the Parliament, is with Sílvia Orriols' party, just like Vox, which in recent months has already tried to make a Catalanist shift to try to reach out to the voters who would now lean towards Aliança.

PP vs. Vox: Albiol to block the far right

The struggle is clearest between the PP and Vox. Although after November 29th, if the polls are met, both parties will be condemned to understand each other, they know that they are competing for a part of the electorate. Hence the choice by the PP of Xavier García Albiol as number one for Barcelona. His profile as mayor of Badalona and his xenophobic discourse against immigration is what the Popular Party believes can serve to stop the 13% of voters, according to the CEO, who would now be willing to choose Vox. On the other hand, Santiago Abascal's party—which in Catalonia will have the candidacy led by Juanjo Aizcorbe—has a smaller leakage of votes towards the PP, of 6%.