Vox threatens to disrupt the Transition system
The Spanish political system is weighed down by lead. It faces a very serious threat. It's not the first time this has happened, but now it presents a more menacing potential. During the Transition, the heirs of Francoism and the representatives of the democratic forces worked side by side to build a model that favored alternation between two major parties. This model, reminiscent of the 19th-century system of alternating power, sought to preserve stability, the primary concern in those uncertain years. There would be, they planned, a major center-right option and a major center-left option. The first party ended up being the current PP—after the UCD imploded—; the second, the PSOE. For this reason, in the eyes of some, the Transition culminated precisely with Felipe González's victory in 1982. This system has been called "imperfect bipartisanship."
The first episode of dysfunction—minor, if you will—occurred at the end of González's term, when Julio Anguita's United Left allied itself with José María Aznar to bring down the Socialist leader. Ultimately, Aznar could no longer withstand the weight of the GAL case, nor the mountain of corruption scandals, nor the constant, coordinated, and destructive actions of this strange alliance.
The second precedent occurred much later. It came with the emergence of Podemos, first, and then Ciudadanos. Podemos obtained its best results in the 2015 and 2016 elections (in the latter, it fell just 14 seats short of the Socialists). As for Ciudadanos, its momentum This occurred in 2019, with 57 seats, 9 fewer than the PP. Both parties came close to achieving their goal. overtakingwhich would have turned the system on its head. Then, however, the tide went out, and those mistakenly called state parties They regained their hegemonic positions.
What we are experiencing now is the third of these moments of instability. What is at stake once again is stability, that is, what was such a concern during the Transition. But the functionality of the system, the usefulness of the tool, could also be damaged. There could be a serious breakdown. Because a great imbalance is occurring simultaneously between political hemispheres—the right and the left—and also within these hemispheres themselves. In 1982, with González's overwhelming victory, the PSOE (with the PSC) won 202 seats (an absolute majority is 176). In the next elections, this year or next, the Spanish right—the PP and its radical splinter group, Vox—could even surpass González's record. It is even speculated that they could reach 210 seats (a significant figure, since a two-thirds majority in Congress is needed to impose certain constitutional changes and key appointments in the judiciary). The PSOE, for its part, would today have slightly more than one hundred seats, while Sumar and Podemos would have around 14. In the scenario depicted by the polls, the PP-Vox tandem achieves unprecedented power.
But it's not just the right-left imbalance. Within each side, the proportions are vastly different. While Vox carries significant weight on the right—it would likely win close to 70 seats—to the left of the PSOE, its traditional allies—Podemos and the former Sumar coalition—have shrunk to almost nothing. The strength of the right-wing radicals is infinitely greater than that of the left-wing radicals, if you'll allow me to put it that way. And it's worth noting that Vox is growing a little more each day.
The overwhelming hegemony of the right, and within the right, of Vox, paints an unprecedented picture. And, depending on how you look at it, a brutal one. We are talking about something that goes far beyond a simple change in power. The forces to the left of the PSOE see this, and are responding with moves to try to create a united front that might (somewhat) stem the storm. Núñez Feijóo has also realized this for some time now—even more so with the results in Extremadura and Aragón in hand—and has accepted that his future depends inextricably on Abascal. An Abascal who, in turn, dreams—like Albert Rivera once did—of advancing and displacing Núñez Feijóo's PP.
And what about the PSOE? Sánchez, despite his superhuman resilience, seems to have no way out this time. The winds of the world, and of Europe, are blowing strongly in favor of the right. Probably—if you'll allow me this speculation—Sánchez's career will be over once the elections are lost. A turbulent and painful process of rebuilding the PSOE will then have to begin. And the difficult and crucial debate among the Socialists will inevitably arise: whether, out of a sense of responsibility, to save the system, it is necessary to facilitate a PP government without Vox.
