The ungovernable country of Brexit
Post-Brexit United Kingdom has become a devourer of political leaderships. That referendum, held ten years ago, condemned the country's will to leave the European Union and has ended up becoming a point of no return. It was the beginning of a fracture that crossed the English Channel, but also the British society. Brexit marks the point where United Kingdom politics became unmanageable. Six prime ministers in a decade. The latest victim is the Labour politician Keir Starmer, who had to resign just two years after achieving the third most important majority for his party, after Tony Blair's victories. Starmer has fallen victim to his colleagues and a majority that was never his. That overwhelming result in July 2024 was, above all, a forceful rejection of the conservative disarray and not a closing of ranks around a uncharismatic politician who promised tranquility and technocratic competence.
After austerity, Brexit divisions, and the harshness of covid-19, the British expected things to improve. But Starmer rushed to eliminate any green shoot of optimism and announced that the situation and the cuts would still have to worsen a little more. The feeling of victory lasted little, and the prime minister's inability to unite the party led Labour into an internal civil war that ended up sacrificing him.
The economy has not helped. According to official data, the effects of Brexit have resulted in a reduction of British GDP by up to 8%, a decrease in trade of about 15%, and a drop of 18% in investments. And these figures coincide with a moment of growing protectionism and global geopolitical instability that have further deepened the erosion in competitiveness that the country was already suffering.
Furthermore, Starmer arrived at Downing Street promising to re-establish the UK's relationship with the European Union, but with very specific red lines: not returning to the customs union, not returning to the single market, and not returning to freedom of movement. One of the reasons given by the British government for maintaining these limits is that it did not want to give up the advantages of the free trade agreements it has negotiated on its own. The reality of the figures, however, shows that the agreements signed since Brexit with Australia, New Zealand, and India do not compensate for the loss of GDP resulting from leaving the EU's single market and customs union. It is cold outside the European Union, and even more so in times of Trumpist instability.
Ten years ago, the arguments in favour of Leave promised to "take back control", regain sovereignty and redefine its relationship with Europe on its own terms. But it has failed to solve any of the problems attributed to the EU: economic insecurity, unequal globalisation, declining trust in political elites, and the perception that democratic decision-making has moved further and further away from citizens.
But it is above all the communication problems and the lack of political imagination and leadership that have led to Starmer's downfall, unable to build a convincing narrative that showed that he, despite everything, was the best person to lead the country. It is this lack of courage that allowed such a shady character as Peter Mandelson, former minister, former European commissioner and former ambassador, arrested for his connections with the abuser Jeffrey Epstein, to continue interfering in Downing Street's political strategy.
In the end, the weight of the polls has prevailed: the Prime Minister's unpopularity and the shadow of Nigel Farage's Reform UK far-right have finally forced his resignation. A transitional period is beginning, and it remains to be seen whether it will end up confirming the favourite of the Labour grassroots, the already former mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, who has managed to cultivate an image of optimism, good humour and good communication. He will not have it easy.
The journalist Ben Judah has compared the current situation in the United Kingdom to the final days of the French Fourth Republic, when the country became ungovernable and confidence collapsed. It took the "magic" of Gaullism and the refounding of the Fifth Republic, writes Judah, to "mask" the failure, build new institutions and "boost national morale": "France would no longer be an empire, but it was entering a new future".
Like this European Union that Labour continues to seek to rebuild bridges with, the United Kingdom also has to rethink its place in the world and, at the same time, heal its internal wounds. Perhaps the regional economic revival that Manchester has experienced can bring new ideas to reverse the decline and the self-inflicted damage of Brexit.