The only way out left for Pedro Sánchez
Pedro Sánchez is on the ropes. The corruption cases involving two of his closest collaborators, the former PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) organizational secretaries, José Luis Ábalos and Santos Cerdán, have left the Spanish president breathless, losing credibility and control of the situation. And since everything is likely to get worse, the public confrontation with Donald Trump over military spending is a move with an uncertain trajectory that could cause him many headaches.
Throughout his career, Sánchez has been known for making bold decisions at critical moments. But to overcome the crisis of credibility and honorability he is facing, he has only one last option: to solemnly announce that he will resign and call elections if it is proven that he, too, was involved in the plot and tolerated it. Any other ambiguous message will be interpreted as a sign of weakness from someone who cannot be trusted.
In politics, credibility is only gained by taking risks, by overcoming difficult times. And if the president doesn't want his entire legacy to go down with him, he must play hard, being willing to lose everything. Taking that step would be an act of unprecedented courage in politics. He would certainly be a slave to his words, but only in this way can he make it clear that this is not a case of structural corruption within the PSOE, but rather a personal and regrettable incident involving two figures who betrayed the president's trust and abused the positions entrusted to them.
The normal mechanism in a parliamentary system to get out of the hole Pedro Sánchez finds himself in would be to submit to a vote of no confidence, but that scenario seems unrealistic. The puzzle that has sustained the parliamentary majority until now is fragile and unstable: Sumar and Podemos are a minefield, and the Catalan independence parties will not give a blank check. And we must not forget that everything hangs in the balance, because the majority comes from a single vote, including that of the current MP, Ábalos.
As the independentists have done before, now it is Sánchez and the PSOE who are trying the syrup of lawfareToday, the president's entire personal entourage is facing legal problems: from his wife and brother to his right-hand man in government, Minister Félix Bolaños. The PP's strategy, as always, is to judicialize politics, because it knows the judicial leadership is playing to its side. It weakens its adversaries and fuels every scandal, every investigation, and every headline in a strategy of attrition that seeks to erode the government's legitimacy day after day.
Paradoxically, this dark week could have been a positive milestone for Sánchez. The Constitutional Court upheld the amnesty law, the key piece that served to unblock the legislature and consolidate support. But politics is subject to ruthless twists and turns. The political push the Constitutional Court is giving him to legitimize the most difficult political decision he has ever made is overshadowed by the scandal. Furthermore, the Constitutional Court's approval also allays the fear that a majority of the PP and Vox could maneuver to render the effects of the amnesty null and void, and this, in turn, makes it easier for Junts and Esquerra to disengage from the fate of the PSOE.
Either Sánchez plays hardball, or the anaemia of a government lacking credibility, initiative, and allies paves the way for a right-wing and far-right majority, along the lines of what's happening in most Western countries. We've seen many times before that corruption doesn't take its toll on the PP at the polls because, despite the string of uncovered cases and the final convictions already in place, shocking as it may be, its electorate usually forgives it all. On the other hand, when corruption spills into the progressive ranks, the demobilization of the electorate ends up leading to severe punishment at the polls, which this time will be exploited more than anyone else by the populism and opportunism embodied by Vox.
Pedro Sánchez cannot remain paralyzed, holding his breath in case another scandal or uncomfortable recording emerges. If he truly has nothing to hide, he must step forward and proclaim it unambiguously, taking risks and standing up to the issue. What's at stake is not just his leadership or the future of the PSOE, but the resilience of a progressive political space in the face of an ever-growing wave of reaction. A lack of reaction would more quickly usher in a new political cycle led by a reactionary right that feeds on disaffection and discredit.
