Second round assumptions and with "little boxes"

BarcelonaRarely (very rarely or never) do you attend the presentation of the same budget project twice in a year. This is what has happened on this occasion in Parliament, where the accounts for the rest of the fiscal year have been submitted, after they were withdrawn last February due to disagreement with ERC.

Now, Salvador Illa's Government, after holding on for a few months with a credit supplement –the republicans' formula to temporarily distance themselves from the PSC executive, but without breaking or triggering elections, as happened last year–, manages to have its first accounts of the legislature, which began in 2024. This will also serve to give the Government some breathing room, unlike the situation at the state level, where Pedro Sánchez's executive is on track to complete its four-year term without public accounts.

The fact is that, despite three months having passed since the previous presentation and agreements having been incorporated, especially with ERC but also with Comuns, the total budget figure is the same as in February, 49,162 million euros. Magic? Well, the secret lies in some "little boxes" –in the terminology used by the Minister of Economy–, some resource reserves that were made in case agreements were reached with potential partners. This was done through two additional provisions. The first, for 360 million, was included in the contingency fund, to cover possible pacts with the republicans that were not ultimately reached and which, therefore, were already incorporated into the total figures from February.

The remaining 530 million will fill another "little box" that was reserved and represents additional expected revenue thanks to the dynamism of the economy, which, for now, does not seem to have been drastically affected by the impact of the war in Iran. The additional provision establishes that these resources, which will ultimately increase the total budget figure –if they truly materialize–, will be used to cover the pacts with the partners that have allowed the accounts to move forward. The only doubt, given that these are budgets that will begin to be executed in the summer, is whether the expected additional revenue figures will be achieved. The volume of income is usually much more difficult to predict than that of expenses, which are certain and growing. It is true that they can be less, but they can also be more. We shall see.

And another issue is that of a possible agreement with the teachers. Faced with this possibility, there is no other "box" or reserve of resources foreseen, as has happened with the agreements with ERC and Comuns, and if the allocation for Education is not enough, which will be the most likely scenario, the money will have to be taken from other items. The Government is optimistic, because they consider that from a budget of 50,000 million it will not cost much to get resources for the teachers. Perhaps it would not have been bad to have another little box in reserve.