Towards a Catalonia of 9 million?

The topic of the week has been the regularization of half a million immigrants. Although you might think it's not an economic issue, it's a topic that comes up in all my economics classes.

Spain's population has a clearly inverted demographic pyramid, and currently there are 9.4 million pensioners and around 5 million workers between the ages of 55 and 65. This means that, in ten years, the number of pensioners in Spain will exceed 15 million. As I always say when we discuss pensions: who pays for that?

Currently, including the 55-65 age group, the total number of employed individuals is 22.4 million. Therefore, in ten years, if there is no clear replacement effect in the labor market, we will face a critical situation: practically the same number of pensioners as workers. In this context, either more people contribute to the system or the system becomes unsustainable.

However, the debate is much more complex. Is the country prepared to handle this population increase? Catalonia has gone from 6.8 million inhabitants in 2005 to over 8 million in 2025, and forecasts indicate that this figure will continue to grow in the coming years. The infrastructure is what it is, the hospitals are what they are, and the schools are what they are. And the argument that nothing has been done doesn't hold water: the number of doctors has increased from 32,615 to 51,578. Nevertheless, we are all aware of the long waiting lists that persist and the railway system that is literally falling apart.

This is where the responsibility of public administrations comes into play. If sustained population growth is promoted—or accepted—it must necessarily be accompanied by realistic and bold planning for public services and infrastructure. Otherwise, the pressure will fall on citizens who will eventually reach their breaking point.