The "Chega earthquake" catapults the far right in Portugal and collapses the Socialists

BarcelonaHe result of the legislative elections in Portugal leaves two headlines that do not accept nuances: the right is clearly advancing (especially the far right) and the left is suffering a historic setback (especially the Socialist Party). The Portuguese media this Monday spoke of the "Chega earthquake" or "Ventura earthquake" and the "giant wave of the right" to describe the first phenomenon, and of "cataclysm" and "hecatomb" to describe the collapse of the left-wing parties, which have achieved just under 30% of the vote, less than what AD, led by the current Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, retains.

In six years, the far-right party Chega, led by populist André Ventura, has gone from having 1.3% support to 23%, tied with the Socialist Party (PS). "We're almost there [...]. I won't stop until I am Prime Minister of Portugal," Ventura promised on election night. In contrast, in the same period of time the Socialists have gone from have an absolute majority with almost 42% of support to suffer to remain as leaders of the opposition, with 23.4%. In these six years, the PS has lost 900,000 votes along the way. The Bloc d'Esquerra's slump is also notable (from 9.5% six years ago to 2% now).

For the moment, the Socialists remain the second force in the Portuguese Parliament, but tied with Chega (58) and with only 48,000 votes. And the votes from abroad have yet to be added, so a potential overtaking of the far-right. If this were to happen, Chega would take over the position of opposition leader, which the Socialists have held every time they have failed to emerge victorious in an election. The secretary general of the Socialist Workers' Party (PS), Pedro Nuno Santos, was forced to resign just a year and a half after being appointed.

Several Portuguese analysts and media outlets have highlighted that these early elections –the third in three years– have reshaped the country's political landscape. For the first time in the last 50 years, the PS and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – the largest party in the Democratic Alliance – are no longer, alone, necessary or sufficient to form a constitutional majority. Until now, these two parties had always had two-thirds of the total support, the necessary amount to make changes to the Constitution, but now they only account for 147 of the 230 total deputies.

"The Chega earthquake continues to wreak havoc on the party system and strengthens a parliamentary bloc with which no one wants to form alliances," the newspaper noted. Express.

Negotiations to form a government

Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will begin consultations with the main parties this Tuesday: the Social Democratic Party, the Socialist Party, and Chega.

One of the key issues is what strategy the Socialist Party will adopt regarding the formation and stability of the next executive. The party did not express an official position, but some internal voices pointed to support for a new Montenegrin government. "I think that at this time there are no conditions in Portugal to make a German-style government agreement [which would be AD and PS], that would only be feasible in exceptional circumstances. But the country needs political stability, and therefore, it is clear that the Socialist Party has to make its contribution," said Socialist MEP Francisco Assis, who added that "what it has been."

For his part, Chega has expressed his willingness to dialogue with the conservatives, although Montenegro is committed to maintaining the cordon sanitaire. "There will not be a stable government without Chega's participation," he stated in the newspaper Observer the leader of the parliamentary group, Pedro Pinto. Regarding the expression "No means no" repeated by the prime minister to exclude the far-right party from the negotiations, Pinto played down the phrase and said that the AD leader "did not use it during the campaign."

Despite the growing uncertainty, several journalists and analysts believe that Montenegro has achieved what he sought, at least in part, when he called the early elections: he has gained support and further weakened what until now was his greatest rival. Although another potentially more dangerous candidate has emerged. "Chega is a potential winner in the next legislative elections," stated the deputy editor of the newspaper. Express, David Dinis.